09/22/2012 4:14PM

Mohawk: Monday 9/24 Analysis

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Best Bet: FLIGHT EXEC (7th)     Spot Play: MACHAL ANGELO (6th)

Race 1

(9) WARK WOMAN might be considered a longshot, but her qualifying effort was impressive enough for me to believe that she can post her first lifetime win. (2) TROTTING R T has been very close her past three starts from inside positions. I'm looking for a similar trip. (6) VALLEY GLIDER is certainly a longshot play. This type of condition event is always tough to handicap. I'm looking for a big payout.

Race 2

(1) ROCKIN GLORY caught me by surprise in last week's victory. He seems to appreciate this surface and has drawn a good post to work with. (4) DEWEY BEACH looks like he's always a contender when he draws a good post. I can't overlook him in this race from post four. (3) GONNA ROCK N ROLL has to step up a notch, but I think he can do that. He'll need a trip in my opinion.

Race 3

(1) VICTIM OF CHANGES has just one win from 15 starts this season, but has been trotting respectable miles. He'll need to step up. (5) NOBLE LOVER has been racing very well these past few weeks. She's got a good post to work with and enjoys coming from off-the-pace. (6) STONEBRIDGE FURY made a miscue last week, but is very competitive at this level. He'll likely be the post time favourite, but I'm looking for value and try to get him beat.

Race 4

(6) WHOLE LOTTA SHAKIN is a solid performer at this level and will offer low value. If he had drawn outside, I might have gone a different direction because he races primarily from off-the-pace. You must have him on your ticket. (3) FINAL CURTAIN has proven that he's a threat when he draws inside. With a post three start, I hope that trend continues. (4) PROFESSORSDAPAPERS is back at a level where he's most competitive in. He's got a great record of 2012 of hitting the board.

Race 5

After watching (3) IL VILLAGGIO perform last week, I have to go with him as my top selection. He's the class of the field when he is on his game. (2) ROSE RUN LIMO has been very consistent this season and you simply cannot overlook his stats. (5) BAX OF LIFE is a longshot play, but he went a very tough trip last week. He's a chancy play.

Race 6

(3) MACHAL ANGELO has been dropped into this class for the second time and he's my top pick. I'm going to hope for an off-the-pace trip instead of front-end tactics like last week. (1) CREIGHTON HANOVER gets post relief and I think he'll appreciate that. He closed very well last week. (10) ARPEGGIO HANOVER might be a longshot, but I'm going to play him from post 10. I only hope he doesn't get away too far back.

Race 7

(6) FLIGHT EXEC has been racing tremendous this season from a limited starts. He's fresh can race from off-the-pace or front-end. He's the horse to beat, I feel. (9) PARTNER moves back into the Coleman barn and her stable is on a roll this season. He'll have to step up a notch. (1) LONG LIVE ROCK is extremely consistent and his record proves just that. He's a must have on your triactor/exactor wagers.

Race 8

(3) SPRITE FLIGHT has a terrific record so far this season and should be very competitive at this level. I'm not sure what kind of value you are going to get from him. He's only a rookie racing against three-year-olds. (1) HALLUCINATION went a very good trip over Georgian Down which is a five-eights oval. His 1:57 4/5 clocking leads me to believe that he should go 1:56 on this circuit. (8) TO PERFECTION made a miscue last week and is looking to rebound. Lind is a very capable trotting trainer.

Race 9

(2) LONG FIGHT HANOVER is winless yet this season, but it certainly knocking on the door. He'll likely be the post time favourite. (6) COMMUNICATOR is racing for the first time for O'Sullivan, whose barn has been hot. He's got a respectable record of hitting the board this season.(4) EAST MEADOW was a longshot winner last week, but I think this is a tougher field of horses. He might be a longshot to finish third.

Race 10

(4) TALL COTTON looks like he found his form again after his impressive win last week. He once again draws a favourable post. I'm going to disregard (1) SLIP INTO GLIDE's last raceline. He simply got away too far back and couldn't make up enough ground. That won't happen in this race from the rail. (7) EW FISHER is very lightly-raced for a five-year-old, but is extremely fast and can win at this level. He'll likely offer minimum value.

Race 11

(1) REMORSE CODE has ripped off two consecutive wins at this level, both at high odds. I don't think that will happen a third time. (8) NORTHMEDO HIGHGEAR has missed the board just once this season. Another must have selection on your ticket. (10) COLLEGE MAJOR got interfered with last week and drew post 10 the week before. He's due to catch a break and it might happen here.

Race 12

(1) HOPE FOR PADDY will likely be the post time favourite and rightfully so. She's been racing very well and will likely be closer to the pace from post one. (7) BRUISERS SISTER doesn't like to win, but posts a few solid miles over Mohawk. It appears, she appreciates the big track. (5) FROWN UPSIDE DOWN has had a respectable campaign this season and McNair always has his starters ready. She might be a longshot play.
 

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