09/20/2015 5:24PM

Mohawk: Monday 9/21 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

3,7/1,4,6,10/1,2,5/1,2,3 = $72

 

LATE PICK 4: 2,4,8/8/2,5,6/7,9,10

MEET STATS: 323 - 1029 / $1756.20  BEST BETS: 45 - 92 / $146.30

SPOT PLAYS: 12 - 88 / $92.30

Best Bet: THE MURMURING MAN (9th)

Spot Play: WEIGHT TIME (1st)

Race 1

(7) WEIGHT TIME was racing okay before she tried the Grand Circuit last time. With his good gate speed he could take this group coast-to-coast. (6) ULITTLERIPPER closed for 2nd off a following trip in her debut and should contend here. (1) MAJESTIC DIVA improved last time out and produced her best performance to date. She should get a good piece of this.

Race 2

(6) SIERRA MADRE drops into a claimer for the first time and has shown he can take a lot of air and keep coming; top call. (5) PIER HO TEMPTATION has been facing better in $15K claimers vs. elders. This race -restricted to his own age group - should be more to his liking. (4) DRAFT SEELSTER has 3 wins in his past 4 out of town and his good tactical speed should play well here.

Race 3

(10) MIDNIGHT TOKER picks up a catch-driver here and should be right there if he can improve a bit on his Sept. 11 qualifier. (5) JAYPORT ON THE EDGE left for the front last time, re-moved mid-race and hung on for 2nd behind a big winner. He's a contender here. (3) TYMAL WIZARD made the front early from the 10-hole then got shuffled out of the race. He figures to get a good trip here and isn't out of the question for the top spot.

Race 4

(3) VITAL SIGN has lost two straight to a very sharp horse and may actually find this conditioned group easier; top call in a wide-open race. (7) SWEET COLT OF MINE makes his second start off the Waxman claim and is a must-use in the early pick 4 considering how weak this field is. (5) I SCOOT SAM has seen better days but is a contender by default here despite coming off the vet scratch.

Race 5

(1) UTOPIA raced well trying to chase down a loose leader off soft fractions in an amateur driver race last week. He is only a one-time winner this season but may have found a field he can beat here. (10) E L ROCK was a big winner - also in an amateur driver race - but two back was a good third to one that then stepped up and repeated. He is a contender here, even from the 10-hole. (4) GIRL DRAMA comes off a sharp win but has now missed some time which is a bit puzzling; using in the early pick 4.

Race 6

(1) BLAYDE HANOVER improved with the drop into maidens last time and is a top contender here. (2) GOTTI battled through a quick first 1/2 and led to the last few steps in a great effort; using. (5) SOUTHWIND MONTY stayed in throughout his debut but wasn't far back at the wire. He likely has a lot more to offer than what you see in that lone chart line.

Race 7

(3) HURRICANE HAZEL raced tough first up behind a runaway winner last week. She races better coming off a helmet and should be able to work out a covered trip here. (1) PISCEAN makes a massive class drop here and should enjoy ditching the likes of Mission Brief; contender. (2) HILLSONATOR couldn't close from far back vs. a blowout winner last time but should be closer early here and get a piece of this.

Race 8

(4) CAJON LIGHTNING was closing powerfully late last time but just couldn't reach the winner. He looks best here and the move inside a few slots should help. (8) SURF REPORT left hard and then took a shuffle in the same race. He should be prominent throughout here. (2) TRIPLE SEELSTER was first-up - also in the same dash - and tired a bit late. He could take this with a better trip.

Race 9

(8) THE MURMURING PAN was such a dominant winner in his season's debut that it's hard to imagine him not repeating here; pick 4 single. (6) MYLITTLESTARSHINE was given a good drive and trip by Zeron last week and should be close here with her good late speed. (7) STRIKNGLYIMPRESIVE lived up to his name last week but will need to get faster in a hurry to contend with the choice.

Race 10

(5) KEN KAN WIN closed with a tremendous late rush to get up to win last week. He can lay closer and race effectively, too; top call. (2) TORTOLA SUNRISE gets post relief here and can be much closer to the choice than last week off a better trip. (6) STEEL RESERVE raced strongly first-over last week but some of these look a bit tougher.

Race 11

(10) DAZZLING ROCKETTE put in a big mile on a sloppy track rated three seconds slow. She will need to find a spot early here with other speed signed on, but should take this if she can land in the top five off the gate. (7) SOUTHWIND GINGER drops in from Grassroots company; don't be surprised if she leaves much harder here. (9) A LOT OF SENSE is in good form but post 9 isn't the best for her. (1) C C CALLMEKELLY was claimed two back following her 82nd straight loss. Following loss #83 a minor award looks likely. (5) MARIGOLD BLOOM continues to take a big hit every week when the mutuels open and has yet to deliver; small share predicted.

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