09/16/2016 2:54PM

Mohawk: Monday 9/19 Analysis

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Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

PICK 5: 1,6/1,3,6/1,4,5,6/2,5,7,8/1,7 = $38.40

EARLY PICK 4: 2,5,7,8/1,7/2/1,2,7,8 = $64

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,7,8/3,6/5,6,10/8,9 = $48

MEET STATS: 346 - 1036 / $1785.50  BEST BETS: 57 - 95 / $179.40

SPOT PLAYS: 20 - 95 / $119.10

Best Bet: SAFEKEEPING (6th)

Spot Play: PAR INTENDED (7th)

Race 1

(6) NEVER BEEN TOLD continues to turn long trips into wins. That he doesn't need a good trip to win makes him extra-tough here; top call. (1) SOAKING UP THE SUN is capable but erratic at times. Take a good look at his gait in the post parade and scoring down for clues to his soundness. (2) CONFLICT DIAMOND was a solid 2nd to the choice from the 10-hole last time. Toss him on your Pick 5 ticket moving in eight posts. (4) LITTLE QUICK is capable of a serious late bid if the pace is honest.

Race 2

(6) LIGHT FOOT RD and (3) PANEDICTINE should be the main players here in their first starts off the claim. Give the nod to the former who typically displays sharper tactical speed. (1) CURATOR is likely to get an aggressive steer here from Henry starting from the inside; using. (7) INTENDED STYLE earned most of his money in claimers earlier in the year. He could wake up in a big way here with the class drop.

Race 3

(1) MAJESTIC KAT faces straight maidens for the first time here. She should enjoy the class drop. (5) HILARIOUS HERO lost for the 15th time last start but that was his best mile to date and he should be tough in here facing a suspect group. (6) STORMONT ROYALTY should get away closer to the front here moving in a couple of posts and that makes her more of a threat late in the mile. (4) CORE FUSION - a $35K Harrisburg purchase - likely has much more to offer than what he showed in his qualifier. He can take a piece of this.

Race 4

(7) COBALT MAN was third vs. better in a quick mile last time. Expect Filion to try to control things here. (8) THE CATAMOUNT KID returns from a 2-month break sporting a sharp qualifier and this should be an easy class for him; using. (5) HOPIESDRAGNINTHEDO is an infrequent winner but he fits well here and he should hit the board. (2) SHIPPEN OUT's chances were ruined by bad cover last time. He can be a big factor here if he gets a decent trip.

Race 5

(7) THIS IS MY SONG has raced decently in New York sires stakes. These should be easier; slight nod in a wide-open dash. (1) WOULDACOULDASHOULDS should be closer here in a race that should go a couple of seconds slower than his most recent start. (4) ARDEEN is a full-brother to several winners and he can take a slice here in his debut. (5) OSBORNE SEELSTER has faced tougher every start. He's worth a look here coming off a break.

Race 6

(2) SAFEKEEPING took a ton of mutual support last time and she converted with a sharp win; call to repeat. (1) GRAMSTER moves into a top trotting barn shipping in here; consider for Pick 4 tickets. (3) MAJOR MUSCLE has frequent gait issues but he will be a big threat if he can stay trotting here. (5) MINI HER should make the Super ticket if she stays flat.

Race 7

(8) PAR INTENDED could get a similar pace setup as last week when he rushed up late for the win. He may be a square price again; call to repeat. (2) LISVINNIE set some insane fractions last week and he paid the price late. He can rebound here with a more patient drive. (7) WALTZKING HANOVER goes fresh off the claim again here and he should be one of the main contenders from close range. (1) JENKINS CREEK is another that races out of a new barn that should threaten. The inside post should help his cause here.

Race 8

(6) TOY IS OURS trotted the entire mile and he was an easy winner last time out. He can repeat here, but he is always a threat to go off stride. (3) GIRL DRAMA is in good form and she will likely take her second win of the year soon. (2) JUSTALITTLEFASTER has been racing well recently and he will be closing late here for a piece, at a minimum. (5) BLUSH AND CRUSH hasn't done that well since being claimed three back but she should be a threat here from close range.

Race 9

(6) LIMA C ME ROCK was aggressively handled to win his last and he should get put into play early here again in a field in which he fits well; top call. (10) ARCHANGEL THREE was an impressive first-up winner last time. Expect Zeron to try to get this one into the race early here. (5) JACK RACKHAM adds Lasix and he should go much better here. (2) VEGAS DREAM is probable to follow along for a minor share here.

Race 10

(8) NEEDLECREST tipped his hand in his most recent start in which he improved his late speed. He can take these if he is put into action early enough. (9) SENIOR MARKET has had success on this circuit in the past. He can be a speed threat here at a price. (6) SMALLTOWN GIRL is another to consider at a price in a race which demands wide Pick 4 coverage. (3) ROCKABELLA is likely one of the best in here, but his weak win record this year is concerning. (4) CAMS TUX is worth a look coming off a break. Watch the tote board for clues on this one.

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