09/15/2012 4:40PM

Mohawk: Monday 9/17 Analysis

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Best Bet: AUTUMN GOTTEM (10th)      Spot Play: ROCKYS FIRST (7th)

Race 1

(2) BILTMORE raced terrific last week, but tired late. I hope Rekila uses the same front-end tactics again. (1) DON'T SAY DON'T is making the move back to the big track after posting a win. Henriksen has had good luck doing this. (4) JUKEBOX JACKIE has been racing very well from behind and has post four, that never hurts.

Race 2

(7) LONG FIGHT HANOVER has been knocking on the door in his young career and will likely be the post time favourite. (4) THE GOAT was eligible to some heavy stakes earlier in the year. He posted a solid first start back. (5) PERFECT ESCAPE is a longshot play in here, but given the right trip, he's competitive.

Race 3

(4) PL FAIRLADY has been at this level, but winless and I think that could change in this contest. She's got a great post to work with and can get off the gate well. (3) ANAFFAIRTOREMEMBER posted a solid qualifier for Moreau. She should be even better in this race. (10) SWEETLANDOFLIBERTY has post ten to deal with, but I think she can overcome it. She's a top contender.

Race 4

(6) CHICAGO HANOVER has been getting better with very start and I admire his late kick last week. Terrific final quarter and he shows even more promise. (8) LONG LIVE ROCK has been ultra-consistent this season. He very well could win, but I'm going to try and get him beat. (5)LIFEIMITTATESART finished fifth in the Simcoe against tougher rivals. I'm not convinced he can win in here.

Race 5

(6) TANGLES knows how to find the winner's circle this season in her young career. She is stepping up in class, but I think she can handle this level. (9) TOOCOOL FORSCHOOL caught me off guard with his win in the Champlain. I admire his gate speed from the outside post. (4) NOBLE LOVER is stepping up in class after getting her first win of the season. She's a threat.

Race 6

I think (10) PROSECCO BRUT can overcome post 10 with his tactical gate speed. He's in a claimer and might offer value. (7) CREIGHTON HANOVER raced very well last week and made up a ton of ground. He's at the same level and I hope to see a repeat effort. (3) EXPLODENT was a three-race win streak coming into this event. He's up in class, but I feel he can hit the board.

Race 7

(6) ROCKYS FIRST is getting my top pick in here because of Jamieson. I feel he's got the key to success with him after dropping two seconds. (4) RATE EXCHANGE has been close a few times at this level, but he's a classy veteran and I feel he can be top three. (7) ROSE RUN LIMO caught me by surprise with his win last start. I'm not sure if he can do that again.

Race 8

I hope (9) HOPE FOR PADDY will likely offer value, but I'm sure she will. She will have to overcome past nine and she doesn't get off the gate that well. (2) THATS MARA has gotten better for Montini and she's at a level that should suit her. (6) INSINCERITY has no excuses last week after a two-hole trip. She has won eight times this season so don't count her out.

Race 9

(7) INTIMIDATE was extremely impressive in his last start. I don't know where that mile came from, but a repeat effort and he should win. (4) EW FISHER has been lightly raced throughout the past two seasons, but has an excellent win record. (8) STAR PHOTO got tired late last start from an outside post. I think he can be top three at this level.

Race 10

(5) AUTUMN GOTTEM was my pick last week and he didn't let me down. You have to see the replay, simply outstanding. (10) DOOWRAH OMELET got picked off late last week, but has excellent gate speed and I hope it get used from post 10. (8) TERCO CORAZON likes to finish third and in this case, I hope it continues. I can't see him winning.

Race 11

(5) BULLET was very good last week and got beat by a top mare. He'll likely be the post time favourite. (9) JUIANS CAESAR closed very well last week and will get Jamieson this start. I hope he's put into contention early. (1) IL VILLAGGIO is a chancy play in my opinion. Given his record and class, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt.

Race 12

(5) COLLEGE MAJOR ran out of real estate last week, but draws a much better post and will be closer to the front. (6) GIDDY UP BLACKFLY enjoys racing from off the pace, so post six is a great position to start from. He's shown 1:51-speed and that's what it will take to win this race. (4) SWEET GESTURE is a bit of a chancy play. I don't know what happened last week, but I'm going to overlook that break.
 

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