09/11/2015 4:29PM

Mohawk: Monday 9/14 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

9/6/1,2,4,7/2,3,4,6 = $16

 

LATE PICK 4: 2,3,4,6/3,4/5,7/1,2,3,6 = $64

MEET STATS: 301 - 972 / $1660.00 BEST BETS: 42 - 87 / $139.40

SPOT PLAYS: 12 - 83 / $92.30

Best Bet: CATCH THE DREAM (5th)

Spot Play: TALL SHADOW (6th)

Race 1

An amateur driver's race kick's things off and (2) UTOPIA with Hannah Miller look as good as any but she tends to get way overbet in some of these races due to her high win %. (5) ARCTIC TALE might be worth a look handled by a driver with 4 wins and 9 slices in 55 tries. (4) WINE PHOTO has been racing well for Clinton's leading trainer and would be no surprise in here.

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Race 2

(5) ULITTLERIPPER was solid in her lone qualifier and faces about as weak a maiden field as you will find to start her career. (1) BOW TIES N BOURBON tried Grand Circuit company last time and broke early. He will likely be heavily-bet but isn't worth odds-on here. (8) MATZA MAN raced okay in his debut and should show improvement.

Race 3

(5) CIMERONKEN likely made a speed break at Clinton trying to keep up in an all-age track record mile. He has been consistent and looks like one of the best ones in this second amateur race. (4) AGGRESSIVE will likely live up to his name as Miller is sure to try to take this one down the road. He's the one to beat. (8) RUSH N SUPREME is steered by a driver that won one of these races here last year and he could make the ticket at a big price.

Race 4

(9) ARAZI set the pace and built a big lead last week then was unlucky to get nailed by a rival that sat in the whole mile until late. He can wire these. (8) CAJON LIGHTNING was closing widest off excess cover last week and can get closer here if he is in touch with the leaders at the 3/4 pole.(2) TRIPLE SEELSTER has drawn three 9-holes in a row and been way back early each time. He should be much closer early here and show improvement.

Race 5

(6) CATCH THE DREAM wasn't far back in the Preferred last week now takes a big drop into a field he should beat. (2) BAX OF LIFE closed well from way back last time now gets Christoforou back. She is sharp but more likely for a minor share as her record suggests. (1) CHARMED LIFE is still stuck on two wins but has amassed $155K in earnings this season. She's not a toss, but always gets overbet in these classes.

Race 6

(1) TALL SHADOW is the first foal from a dam that won her debut, took a mark of 1:51 2/5 and won $282K. She could pop at a price first out. (4) CAROLINA HURRICANE finished 3rd in the Battle of Waterloo now has missed six weeks; hard to toss, tough to love. (2) CHALK PLAYER is another that figures on form that has missed some time; another tough call. (7) POPLAR DUKE won his debut in decent time at Clinton and is worth inclusion in the early pick 4.

Race 7

(4) BAGS FOR ALL ripped off a huge lifetime-best mile first off the claim two back then broke at the start of the Earl Rowe as one of the favorites. If she stays flat, she'll be tough in here. (3) DAMFOOLRMILLIONAIR got shuffled out of the race last week in the Preferred but has been solid in this class recently with a win and a second; using. (6) OLE JACK MAGIC looked beat halfway down the lane last week then dug in to come on and get up in the final strides. He should be a good price here and merits inclusion.

Race 8

(4) HUNCH MAN was hopelessly blocked in the lane last week and had to take back and swing around several rivals. By the time he managed that it was too late but he was really motoring at the wire; top call here. (3) CAMAES FELLOW was victimized by a long trip last week and has a much better chance to clear early here which is his game. (6) TOMITTA BAYAMA is one of few others with any form and could get a slice.

Race 9

(7) ARSENIC has reeled off two straight and may have beaten better last time out. He looks best here and should get an aggressive steer here. (5) DAYLIGHT RUSH was too far back turning home last week and can threaten the choice if kept in closer range. (4) MATCHPLAY HANOVER was well beaten by the choice last time but should be closer early here which gives him a chance to turn the tables.

Race 10

(2) SEAWIND PASCALE has raced better in her past two and should be prominent throughout here. (6) EXEMPLAR couldn't keep up to a quick pace last time but held in well for third. These look a bit easier. (3) O U SEXY GUY faced better last week and couldn't go with them in the 2nd half. He could trip out on cover here; beware. (1) BURNIN MONEY should beat a few of these off the gate which gives him a shot to make the ticket. (7) UPFRONTLUCKYCAROL was a good second to a class-dropper last time and could share here despite the class rise.

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