09/08/2012 4:41PM

Mohawk: Monday 9/10 Analysis


Best Bet: AUTUMN GOTTEM (7th)      Spot Play: ITALIENNE GIRL (3rd)

Race 1

Based on (8) ALEXANDRIA AS's performance last week, I'm going to make her my top selection. She came from way back to get a minor piece, but made up terrific ground. Great improvement from her previous race lines. (7) NOBLE LOVER has been very consistent other than her latest start. She's certainly capable of hitting the board. (5) BILTMORE is certainly due for a win. I just hope she's close to the pace in the early going.

Race 2

(5) LONG LIVE ROCK should get tons of attention in this race. I admire the trainer-driver high percentage and the horse's solid record this season. (7) ROCK CAMROLLER has been getting better and better with every start. I hope he's near the front. (2) GRANDKIDS ATTACK knows how to find the winner's circle. I didn't know what to make of him last week. Now, it's safe to say he's a contender.

Race 3

(6) ITALIENNA GIRL didn't get the best trip last week, but still finished strong. She's got a good post and a high-percentage trainer/driver combination. (4) JETCREST is certainly capable of winning at this level. He has a good post with his excellent gate speed. (8) BELLE NANA hasn't been on top of her game lately, but I'm looking for a rebound effort.

Race 4

(6) PHEONIX SEELSTER has been knocking on the door in the Grassroots level for quite some time. She's very versatile which only helps her chances. (2) ALMOST MIDNIGHT is winless this year, but shows she belongs at this level. (5) TRAMA UNIT raced in the Gold Final in her last start, but I'm not sure if she's the best in this race. She is good option to have on your ticket.

Race 5

(9) STAR PHOTO Gets much needed class relief and has been posting some encouraging miles in his last two starts. His win record this year should also increase his chances. (4) SHEER GLIDE has hit the board eight out of nine times this year which shouldn't be overlooked. (2) LOVE WALKED IN has one start under her belt on this oval. I'm looking for a better improvement.

Race 6

You can't overlook (6) JEREMES SWEETHEART record in her last five starts. A `must have' on your triactor ticket. (8) BRIGHTSIDE MAUDE has almost a 50 percent win record this season and might offer some value. (1) FROWN UPSIDE DOWN hasn't found the winner's circle in a while, but has been a contender every week.

Race 7

(1) AUTUMN GOTTEM makes a move into the O'Sullivan barn and he has an excellent reputation for first time starters. I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt. (7) LONG FIGHT HANOVER impressed me with his first lifetime start last week. He'll be that much better off that experience. (4) DOOWRAH OMELET loves to win races, but has done so at smaller tracks. We'll find out if he can do it at the top circuit.

Race 8

(8) ORSE POWER enters the claiming ranks for the first time and faces a much softer field. The outside post eight doesn't bother me. (3) GARETH NOURRIR is also in a claiming event for the first time. Trainer Richard Moreau is classifying this horse accordingly. (7) COMMUNICATOR is in the same boat, but moves to this circuit. I'm confident he can make the transition.

Race 9

(10) LYONS LUCK makes the move to the Grassroots Series and despite post ten, I feel she can overcome it. She's not a `key,' but certainly should be on the ticket. You have to admire (4) DRIVING MISS DEO's consistency this year. MacDonald seems to have the answer with her. (6) MACHLEEN certainly can upset; I hope she's near the front in the early going.

Race 10

It's been a while since (5) FRENCHFRYSNVINEGAR has been at this level. She's the class of the field. (6) STORMONT LANCELOT is a big threat is he gets a smoother trip than last week. He's certainly got enough speed to belong in here. (8) JULIANS CAESAR won at this level two starts ago. Who says he can't do it again?

Race 11

(2) NORTHMEDO HIGHGEAR has an impressive win record this season. He came from far back last week to finish a very strong second. (10) COLLEGE MAJOR is a late bloomer for trainer Jeff Gillis, but was praised earlier in his career. He won last week quite handily. (7) FLIGHT EXEC is looking for a rebound effort after a very uncharacteristic break last week. He'll likely offer low value again.

Race 12

I'm not sure how (4) RG RIPTIDE will handle the move to Mohawk after his impressive win record at Rideau Carleton. This isn't a strong field which is why I put him on top. (1) EXECUTIVE JET enjoys finishing second. I hope that continues. (5) ANNUITY caught me off guard last week with that victory. He moves up in class, but if he can repeat his effort than he's a contender.