08/30/2015 1:12PM

Mohawk: Monday 8/31 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


1,4,6,8/1,3,4,6,8/2,3,5/2 = $60


LATE PICK 4: 2,4,5,6/2,6/1,4,8/4,5 = $48

MEET STATS: 258 - 858 / $1461.30 BEST BETS: 35 - 77 / $115.60

SPOT PLAYS: 10 - 74 / $79.60


Spot Play: THREE TRUTHS (10th)

Race 1

(1) POWERFUL GLARE has raced exclusively in sires stakes Gold dashes to date and collected a check every time. This is by far the easiest field she's faced and she stands a good chance of graduating here. (3) MALIA is one of only two winners in the field and also has faced mostly better than these. (7) BALLYKEEL ROCKET is the other winner and picks up Filion here which obviously won't hurt her chances.

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Race 2

(4) TOM HILL closed a big gap on two nice colts in his first race in three weeks. He looks best here and J Mac will likely drive much more aggressively vs. this group; top call. (8) BOTTOM DEALS has faced nothing but stakes colts so far and gets welcomed class relief here. He is the main threat to the choice. (3) BEAST MODE raced evenly in his debut vs. sires stakes company and is likely to improve here.

Race 3

(5) PERSERVERANT has been rock-solid so far, with three aggressive first-over wins in as many tries. He will likely need a new life's mark to win this, but is probably up to it. (8) NOTETOSELF HANOVER left hard then later in the mile tried to chase down the choice in a good effort. He is getting closer to his initial win. (3) TANGO STAR broke last time but if he could replicate his July 17 winning mile he would be a big threat here; mixed signals.

Race 4

(8) DAY TRADE HANOVER was too far back at Georgian last time but still closed well. Picking up Moiseyev helps the quest for his initial score; on top. (6) SECRECY made a decisive third-quarter brush and drew off, beating the choice. He is a logical contender. (4) KING OF SPORTS won his debut then was 2nd to a sharp winner. He's another for early pick 4 tickets.

Race 5

(8) FORK closed rapidly last time but was too far back and the pace wasn't slowing enough for him to bridge the gap. If he lays closer here he'll be tough to beat. (6) PAPER BACKED LINDY moved into Zeron's barn after missing a month and showed little. Expect sharp improvement here. (1) BURNIN MONEY has lived up to his name the past four starts but isn't without a shot here.

Race 6

(5) DERECHO missed almost 3 weeks then was beaten as a big chalk. These are easier and returning quicker has to help. Catch him to greet the cashier. (2) PRINT MEDIA gets Filion back and figures to sit a sweet trip in the pocket here. Don't sell too short. (3) ST LADS MOONWALK has raced tough and won two straight out of town. He's another that could take this competitive tilt.

Race 7

(2) STERLING COOPER ships in having face much better down south and will take some beating here. (3) FORTUNE FELLA was claimed off two straight out of town wins by high % trainer Waxman who has been known to improve these types rapidly. (1) JOHHNY COME LATELY fired off a rapid closing 1/4 last time out and may have upset possibilities here.

Race 8

(6) OLE JACK MAGIC looks like he gets a perfect set up for his potent late charge here with so much early speed signed on. He should be motoring past these late. (5) WHITE BECOMES HER put up a big first 1/2 then blew a big lead late. She did the same earlier in the meet and came back with a win next out. (2) STORMONT KATE has been on a roll but will likely face more pace pressure here which could be her undoing.

Race 9

(6) INSPIRATION VIEW pressed first-over in an open stakes last week which should serve him well here vs. Ontario-breds. Waples has been on a real roll lately; top call. (2) GERRIES SPORT fires home quickly in every start and is the main danger if close enough turning home. (8) DAYLIGHT RUSH is a 1/2 to several good ones that won a lot of races. He isn't without a shot here.

Race 10

(8) THREE TRUTHS has been racing well for the white-hot Moore stable and now switches drivers to Henry; upset call. (4) CONTINUAL HANOVER was an easy winner in a new life's mark last time at Georgian and is the one to beat here. (1) WRITERS KRAMP hasn't done so well since an impressive score on July 11 but he and Filion did team up for a big upset that night. Don't sell too short.

Race 11

(4) NEW MIRACLE was too far back last time but did close well for third. Moving inside and getting Condren back gives him a better chance; top call. (5) GOODTIME MATT failed as an overwhelming choice last time partly due to steering issues in the lane. If he can pace straight all the way here he will be tough to beat. (2) ABSOLUTLY OFFICIAL continues to grab minor awards and that will likely continue here. (3) ARAZI set a strong pace en route to an upset win last week and could better this placing. (1) ALASKAN SEELSTER rarely misses the ticket and tonight should be no exception.

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