08/01/2015 4:38PM

Mohawk: Monday 8/3 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

3,5,8/2,4,6/1,3,9/9 = $27

LATE PICK 4: 2,4,6,9/1,6/1,5,6/7 = $24

 

MEET STATS: 204 - 670 / $1157.80 BEST BETS: 28 - 60 / $96.90

SPOT PLAYS: 7 - 60 / $57.30

Best Bet: CONTROL THE MOMENT (2nd)

Spot Play: CALL ME RICHARD (5th)

Race 1

(6) ASPEN CALIFORNIA has unsuccessfully chased the top three-year-old trotting filly in the country around in three of her last four starts. This is a major drop in class and you can bet A Mac will be sending early; top call. (9) PANAMAS BOY has a win in slow time on a Quebec 1/2 miler and two subsequent faster qualifiers in tow. We've seen a few of these types win already at this meet, he's dangerous. (8) DAYTROOPER had a very long trip in his Mohawk debut and still wasn't beaten that far. He's in with a shot here.

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Race 2

(1) CONTROL THE MOMENT won so easily last week that it's hard to see him getting beat here in the Dream Maker Final. He will be odds-on for sure, however. (2) KOKANEE SEELSTER was unhurried early then chased the choice home in a good but unthreatening effort. He likely completes a tiny exacta here. (3) MINDTRIP broke early, then rushed to the front and predictably tired late. He's the wild card here if he leaves with the rest of the field and stays on gait throughout.

Race 3

(8) PENNIES FROM ABOVE, full-sister to former two-year-old champ Wheelin N Dealin, finds a good spot to start her career and finished fast in her lone qualifier; top call. (2) ROSE RUN REANNA, who has been stellar in qualifiers and not so great in her pari-mutuel starts so far will be contentious if she stays flat. (3) THISLADYSDYNAMITE, the choice's stablemate, is the lone winner in the group so far and one of the more reliably-gaited. She is the one to beat.

Race 4

(5) DANISH N COFFEE has twice faced OSS Gold company to start his career and wasn't disgraced. She faces much easier here.  (8) P L JASMINE came close to wiring the field last week and shaved four seconds off her overall time. She looks like a top contender here. (3) JIMMYS LITTLE GIRL finished third twice in Grassroots dashes while finishing quickly both times. She's another to consider for early pick 4 tickets.

Race 5

(2) CALL ME RICHARD faced his elders last time and mixed it up to the 3/4 pole before tiring. He stands a much better chance here facing his own kind and might be a decent price, too; top call. (4) ONE DIRECTION was first-up vs. OSS Gold competition and hung in there decently. He looks good on paper but notice the 4 slices vs. 0 wins already this year. (6) LETS BE HONEST has been solid all summer and can be placed anywhere; using on early pick 4 tickets.

Race 6

(3) TENDTOWIN has been racing well out of town and now faces a field full of win-shy types; on top. (9) LEAFS AND WINGS returns to a 7-day cycle and faces easier. He should be right there. (1) SUNNY BEACH DAY also faces easier but is more likely for a minor share.

Race 7

(9) BUTTERMILK HANOVER has finished quickly in every start so far and only need to start a bit quicker to get the job done here. (7) NOT DEPRESSED is well-related and starting to come around now; beware. (8) DIVAS IMAGE is also improving but may be too far back turning home to get more than a small share.

Race 8

(6) MICHAELS TURN has returned to the good form he had in the winter when he won his first six straight. He faces a few sophomores here that may be gearing up for future stakes engagements and he can double up. (2) YOURE MAJESTIC jogged when last in this class on June 6 and can't be ignored here. (9) SECOND SISTER is one of the better three-year-old filly trotter on the grounds but is likely to be closing late for a small share here leaving from the outermost post.

Race 9

(6) SPORTSMANSHIP was very live last week and unlucky in the lane when beaten by a stablemate that stickhandled through traffic. He is in top form but will have to chase down (1) P L IDAHO who is sure to be sent hard with the drop in class and inner post; slight nod to the former. (5) VEGAS ROCKS has been in tremendous form and has a chance to crash the exotics at a good price here moving up from claimers.

Race 10

(1) WHITE BECOMES HER is simply one of the fastest in here and gets a good post to start from; top call despite the class rise. (5) BAX OF LIFE always looks good on paper and rarely gets there it seems. Again she looks like one of the best here but is hard to love at a short price. (6) ZEUS LIGHTNING is another win-shy type that might be able to threaten these.

Race 11

In a field where the horses' combined records are 1 win from 108 starts, we'll side with (7) SABINE PASS, one that has shown a bit of ability and has only three losses showing. (4) VEGILANTE HANOVER is the only winner in the field and has been racing well out of town. He has as good a shot as any in here. (1) CAJON LIGHTNING passed all but the long-gone winner in the stretch last time out. He can build off that first share. (2) ARAZI typically leaves hard and should be able to stick around for a cheque vs. these. (9) FULL TIME GIG rarely misses a cheque and has faced tougher lately. He could better this placing.

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