07/05/2015 5:02PM

Mohawk: Monday 7/6 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

4,5/1,2,3,7/1/1,2,8 = $24

 

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,8/1,2,4,/3,5,7/2,4 = $54

MEET STATS: 154 - 484 / $880.70  BEST BETS: 20 - 43 / $71.10

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 41 / $53.20

Best Bet: KAYS SHADOW (6th)

Spot Play: WILD BILL M (7th)

Race 1

(1) DAMFOOLRMILLIONAIR raced very well two back in this class from an outer post when starting fast and finishing quickly to just miss. Dropping back down from the Preferred and drawing inside is enough to make him our top pick in the opener. (3) WHISKEY TAX went a big trip up front last week but couldn't sustain his bid.  Moving inside gives him a chance at a better trip and higher placing. (4) WHITE BECOMES HER easily took care of weaker leading throughout but is likely to get challenged harder and earlier in this class.

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Race 2

(1) BEACH HERO parlayed a heady McNair steer and a good trip into a lifetime-best score last week. It's very possible he could sit the exact same trip behind (6) TWOMICKEYTRIP, who should be heading straight for the point off the claim. We'll give the nod to the former here. (7) CRAFTY MASTER couldn't close into an accelerating pace but has retained his sharpness and will get there one of these times.

Race 3

(1) THISORTHAT HANOVER made short work of her foes in her pari-mutuel debut and showed a very quick turn of foot in the lane when she quickly sprinted away from them. She will likely face a bigger challenge here going for $70K but is likely up to it. (5) THATSOVERYNICE is a half-sister to three winners from three that have raced from her dam. The late speed she has shown in her qualifiers signal readiness. (2) CONNIE MACH was impressive winning both qualifiers but will need to knock at least three seconds off her overall time to compete for the top prize here.

Race 4

A full-brother to Rock N Roll Heaven wouldn't find too many easier spots to make his debut so we'll give (4) HARD ROCK top call here on pedigree alone. (5) SHOE SHINE raced evenly in his WEG debut now gets a massive driver change to Henry who is likely to try to send this Shadow Play colt right down the road; don't underestimate. (6) ARAZI showed good early speed but had trouble keeping pace late in a quick dash. He can share here.

Race 5

(3) EXEMPLAR is an in-and-outer and perhaps a recent good effort in the top class at Georgian signals an even better mile is coming tonight. (2) ROSE RUN ORIANA AND (1) BAGS FOR ALL have similar profiles in that they both won easily in this class three back. Both are dangerous here in this contentious tilt with class and post relief to aid their cause.

Race 6

(1) KAYS SHADOW was impressive in her debut, fending off a stern third-quarter challenge then sprinting away down the lane. She will be tough here starting from the inside. (3) SOUTHWIND SHANIA lost all chance when she broke before the start in her debut but figures highly here if she behaves. (5) STONEBRIDGE PEARL was very impressive over a wet track in her qualifier last Saturday and can take home a big share here.

Race 7

(1) WILD BILL M paced a 26 3/5 second 1/4 last time to take control of a late closer final over a half-mile oval. He has shown there and in other miles that he has some talent and this isn't too tough a spot to make his WEG debut; top call. (2) NEW YORK NIGHTMARE is another shipper with good form and also has a big shot to score here. (7) MYSTICAL JET didn't get over the wet track very well last Saturday but any of his previous three miles make him a threat here. Keep on pick 4 tickets.

Race 8

(4) WINDSUN REVENGE tried it first up vs. a very tough leader last week which isn't his best trip. He stands a better chance to hook onto some cover here and should be a better price tonight. (1) COCO LINDY finished just ahead of the choice in the same dash and is one of the main contenders here, especially considering he comes back quicker. (2) HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS moves back inside and gets Filion back. Both of those factors make him a threat.

Race 9

(5) MAJESTIC TEMPO raced very tough in his debut making two moves and falling just short. He gets a slight nod here in a leg you should go deep in the late pick 4. (7) BETTY HILL made a brush to the front on the backside and then finished fast to hold the choice at bay. She's the one to beat again. (3) TWENTY THREE RED broke early and made a big recovery to pass horses as the pace accelerated. She has a big shot here if flat.

Race 10

(4) TOPCORNERTERROR faces one of his easiest assignments in a few starts and should get an aggressive steer here; top call in the finale. (2) BUGGER BRUISER also faces easier and should get sent hard for position by A Mac. (3) SANTANNA BLUE CHIP won in a similar class in May before facing tougher and should be respected here. (9) TOMITTA BAYAMA won two straight in good time out of town and can share here at a good price. (1) HOUSE OF TERROR has gait issues but also has high speed when he minds his manners. He is another in with a shot here.

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