07/12/2015 1:51PM

Mohawk: Monday 7/13 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

2/2,4,5,7/5,7,9/1,2,6 = $36

 

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,4,5/4,6/4,5,9/3,6,10 = $72

MEET STATS: 164 - 526 / $958.80  BEST BETS: 20 - 47 / $71.10

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 45 / $53.20

Best Bet: BRING ON THE BEACH (4th)

Spot Play: ADRIAN HANOVER (2nd)

Race 1

(4) BURNIN MONEY drops in class, gets a better post to work with and should be a square price. This 6-time winner in 2015 has a nose for the wire when properly spotted; top call. (6) BODY BALANCE has been right there on the wire the past two weeks and should be prominent throughout here, too. (8) ADVERSITY won in a similar class two back then missed a check last time which allows him to drop back down here. He is sharp and dangerous.

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Race 2

(4) ADRIAN HANOVER is related to several speedy winner including two that have gone in 1:49 1/5 or faster. This $115K Lexington purchase surely has more to offer than seen in his lone qualifier; top call. Both of (6) CONTROL THE MOMENT's siblings to race are winners and this son of Well Said was well-prepped in his lone qualifier; the main danger. (7) FUEL THE JOE closed evenly into an accelerating late pace in his lone prep. He can share here.

Race 3

(4) WILLYORWONTHE was an impressive debut winner, powering out of the pocket and trotting away from his foes with ease. He can double up here. (1) TONY SOPRANO was sensational in a qualifier with trotting hopples added July 3rd and will have to be caught. (6) DEWEYLOVERNLEAVER was a following third in his debut to the choice and can build off that initial effort.

Race 4

(2) BRING ON THE BEACH was conservatively driven in his Mohawk debut but still managed to close up for third off cover. He looks best here and likely kicks off the early pick 4 as a big chalk. (8) AXELERATE SEELSTER changed ownership, missed some time, then raced much better than he had been closing well when free only late in the mile. If anyone is going to topple the choice, it is probably him. (5) BIG APHRO makes his season's debut off a couple of decent qualifiers in search of his initial victory.

Race 5

(4) V FOR VICTORY trotted an impressive mile from the 10-hole in defeat in his debut, passing all but the pocket-sitter late. He is one of several contenders here in this OSS Gold event. (2) ZLATAN is a half-brother to three that have raced from his dam and all are winners, two of which have gone in 1:55 3/5 or faster. This one has been well-prepped for this debut. (5) SMOKE MONEY was an easy debut winner but will need to find more late speed here to contend for the win.

Race 6

(7) SHOE SHINE picked up a catch driver and an easy win last week. He looks tough here right back. (9) ST LADS FLIRT showed dramatic improvement and big early speed winning for the 2nd time this year at Sarnia last week. It looks like his connections have figured some things out and he is dangerous here. (5) WINDSONG LORD was 2nd behind the same tough winner his past two and is a contender here from close range.

Race 7

(6) FLANAGAN MEMORY returns to the scene of his biggest wins after powering up to finish a sharp 2nd in the TVG Trot at The Meadowlands. He has come back in great form as a five-year-old and has a big shot to score here. (1) MASTER OF LAW provided cover for the choice and hung in there decently when the pace accelerated. He is the main danger here. (2) CATCH THE DREAM, winner of three of his last five, is in top form and not without a shot here likely at a decent price.

Race 8

(1) TOTALLY RIPPED faced much better last week and couldn't get close. The winner was long gone, however and he wasn't that far out of 2nd while finishing 6th. He fits this class much better and likely goes off at a square price; top call. (4) O U SEXY GUY never entered contention from the 10 hole last week and should be able to work out a good trip on cover here. (2) GIRL DRAMA has returned from a break with a vengeance, winning four straight at three different tracks. Her form is too strong to discount despite the class rise.

Race 9

(4) BEACH HERO has been razor-sharp the past two weeks and stands an excellent chance of leading this group on a merry chase; top call. (6) CRAFTY MASTER closed powerfully to cut into the choice's lead late and appears to be the main danger. (7) CHEYENNE REIDER is hot and cold but knows where the wire is and has won several times from outer posts this year already.

Race 10

(4) DOMEDOMEDOME closed powerfully last time but was simply too far back. She is sharp and need only start her late charge earlier to be right there vs. these. (8) MAGIC MADNESS is also very sharp and may try to similar front-end tactics that worked on May 23rd with a lack of early speed in here. (3) I AM SPECIAL improved last week and is a danger here from close range.

Race 11

(3) DEETZY tipped his hand two back when he closed rapidly in the final stages to just miss. He followed that up with a nice Grassroots win out of town and looks like one of few contenders here. (10) WILDCAT MAGIC outraced his odds last week when closing nicely from far back for third. This one can contend for the win if Jamieson gets him a decent position early. (6) FASHION MAVEN faced much better the past two and would be no surprise here. Use those three on your late pick 4 and stop there. (2) MIDNIGHT PLAY is as good a bet as any for the smaller awards. (4) SHIPPEN OUT often races tough but always comes up short on the win end.

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