06/26/2015 4:19PM

Mohawk: Monday 6/29 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

7,10/1,6,9,10/1,3/1,3,5 = $48

 

LATE PICK 4: 1,3,5/7/2,3,4,7,8/4,6,7 = $45

MEET STATS: 138 - 443 / $826.80 BEST BETS: 17 - 39 / $60.00

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 37 / $53.20

Best Bet: IDEAL SHADOW (3rd)

Spot Play: NORTHERN VICTORY (7th)

Race 1

(6) ANTAR PHIL has faced some pretty good ones in his past four starts and this group seems much weaker. He gets top call by default but don't take too short a price. (4) HP BUSHIDO DRAGJET raced much better at Clinton in a Grassroots dash and would be very tough if he could recapture the form displayed in his June 2 win.  (3) VIEW LAND has a chance to leave quickly and sit a good trip here. (1) TEA WITH MS MCGILL has good late speed but is a head-scratcher in that he has big gaps in his chart lines - this time 27 days. He is capable but suspect.

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Race 2

(7) INTIMIDATE makes his third start off the shelf and you'd think they will be tightening the screws on him soon in preparation for some bigger events. He gets a slight nod. (8) DAYLON MAGICIAN has been super in all his 2015 races with 5 wins and 2 thirds from 7 starts. He is the main foe again. (3) CATCH THE DREAM put up some serious early splits and won easily vs. lesser. He is capable in this class, too.

Race 3

(8) IDEAL SHADOW is one of the sharpest horses on the grounds and may offer a slight overlay from the outermost post. Beat him to greet the cashier. (5) CRAFTY MASTER went out too fast and predictably tired. He will most likely revert to a closing style which has been more effective for him in the past. (1) MODERN XHIBIT showed some life late in his mile last week and could get closer here.

Race 4

Somebeachsomewhere's full brother (7) BRING ON THE BEACH makes his Mohawk debut and looks formidable. He will be a massive favorite in all pools though and if you could beat him out of the pick 4 it is sure to pay. Top call but not a single for us. (10) ARAZI is the other that we'll use in the early pick 4. He showed dramatic improvement in his 2nd start and is most likely blasting here which gives him a shot at the upset. (5) ELECTRIC WESTERN lost to a good one last time and isn't without a chance but the 0-9 record is concerning.

Race 5

(1) O U SEXY GUY came home in :55 1/5 from the 10-hole last week and now moves inside which gives him a much better shot here. (6) WHITE BECOMES HER looked home free last week at short odds than tired and blew a big lead late. She has talent and issues. (9) MMS LUCKY BOY has faced better recently and is dangerous here at what is likely to be a square price.

Race 6

(3) GO DADDY GO tried a deep closing style in the North America Cup consolation but was too far back in a pace that didn't slow much. His 1:21 flat final 3/4 of a mile indicates he is sharp and should be right there vs. these. (1) GOOD FRIDAY THREE made the North America Cup final but couldn't threaten. He is a contender but may be over bet off that factor here. (6) WINDSONG LEO is a very good colt but his 7-race win streak is in jeopardy here with him having missed a month's action coming into this.

Race 7

(3) NORTHERN VICTORY has gone a long time between wins but faces a field of horses here rife with question marks. We predict he converts a good trip on or near the pace. (1) ADVERSITY gets class relief and should be able to work out a good trip here; threat. (5) BODY BALANCE is a contender but often stays in during critical parts of the race which makes us wonder about the driver's confidence in him.

Race 8

(7) THISORTHAT HANOVER is by a top 2-year-old sire and out of a dam that has produced 4 winners that have gone faster than 1:55 flat of 5 that have raced. She has been ultra-impressive in his qualifiers and likely wins this debut at a very short price. (5) TWENTY THREE RED is the first foal of an unraced Rocknroll Hanover mare and she has shown impressive speed in both her qualifiers. She looks like the main foe. (2) MANIANA is another well-bred filly that has unleashed good late speed in her qualifier. She can fill the last slot of the tri.

Race 9

(4) PHYSICALLYINCLINED went on a front-end mission in the North America Cup consolation and turned back all challengers while carving out some quick splits. He'll be tough to beat here. (2) SPORTSMANSHIP was conservatively-driven in the pocket through glacial splits yet still finished close to the winner. He's a threat here. (8) THINKOFAGAMEPLAN made front and slowed the pace to a walk which made him unbeatable. He will have to crank up a lot more speed here but may be capable.

Race 10

(7) ABSOLUTLY OFFICIAL closed well last week but was too far back on too much cover. This looks like a pretty weak group that he should be able to handle. (4) TICKET TO ROLL gets Lasix after time off for trainer Auciello which is a formula that we've seen work more than once. (6) HIS BOY ELROY is capable of a big late burst and should be included underneath of any vertical wagers. (1) CORSICA HALL steps up off a nice maiden win but has missed four weeks now; tough call. (2) ROLLWITHTHEPUNCHES makes his second start back off a vet scratch and could wake up here at a good price.

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