06/14/2015 11:42AM

Mohawk: Monday 6/15 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

9,10/5,7/4,7,9/1,3,6,7 = $48

 

LATE $1 PICK 4: 1,3,6,7/1,5/3,7,8/2,7 = $48

MEET STATS: 114 - 356 / $639.80 BEST BETS: 15 - 32 / $52.70

SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 30 / $45.60

Best Bet: DOUBLEDOWN GASS (9th)

Spot Play: THOUGHTFUL LEADER (2nd)

Race 1

(4) LA BELLA ROSA is one of the only entrants in here with any kind of form. She'll never find an easier spot to break her maiden. (5) NOBLE LEGEND has been tabbed several times here as a wake-up prospect. Perhaps tonight it finally happens in this week group. (1) TOP NOTCH LADY AS improved a bit in her second start and could share here if Zeron keeps her closer early.

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Race 2

(5) THOUGHTFUL LEADER faced better in the Grassroots last time and showed good late speed to nab third. This is a good spot for him to break his maiden and price might be decent because (7) BIG RICH will likely be a big chalk again. The latter is obviously capable, but also unreliable and had little excuse for getting nailed late last time. (2) ONTHEROAD DE VIE came closest to finally breaking through for his initial score last time and improved his overall speed; maybe.

Race 3

(1) PRESCOTTS HOPE left hard, took a tuck then reached up late in his first start for Brealey off the claim. This one is likely capable of improvement here which will be required to take this. Top call at a square price. (3) BEACH HERO showed some grit down the lane at Georgian last Tuesday, fighting off several that were coming late and nabbing 4th. That was with his trainer driving and he switches to a top catch-driver here; contender. (4) SANATTLE SLEW is sure to be wildly over bet off his 3rd in a rapid mile last week. He is as win-shy as they come and needs a perfect trip to get it done. We'll play against as an underlay.

Race 4

(10) SPEED RACER was third vs. much better in an open claimer last week and can take these if Massey sends him hard early. Post 10 could help the price. (9) PAIN IN THE GLASS closed well despite being on excess cover in his first try over Mohawk. Henry returns to drive for his nephew; contender in a field with few. (5) SACHERTORTE makes his second start off the claim for Moreau after showing little from an outer post at Grand River. He can improve here.

Race 5

(7) MURMUR HANOVER returns from a break and trotted faster in his qualifier than he had been in his pari-mutuel starts. Perhaps Baillargeon has fixed him up; top call in a wide-open dash. (5) EXEMPLAR drops and gets Lasix. He is capable of much better; perhaps the medication will help. (1) DAMFOOLRMILLIONAIR faces easier in his second start of the year and is sure to wake up soon; maybe tonight.

Race 6

(7) TWOMICKEYTRIP goes for Moreau first off the claim here and gets some post relief. He is sure to be prominent throughout. (9) IDEAL SHADOW managed to stay close enough to capitalize using his potent late kick last week. He can repeat if he can get close enough by the 3/4 pole from this outer post. (4) CRAFTY MASTER beat the one above two weeks ago, was claimed then skipped a week. He should be tough here; keep on pick 4 tickets.

Race 7

(6) MYSTICAL JET showed great improvement in his second start of the year flying up late from way back. He can take these if kept a bit closer early. (3) ALONEINSPADES set an honest pace and was nailed only late in an improved effort. He should be prominent throughout. (7) ONWAYTOSANTAFE has faced better in his past three starts and should be a contender here, possibly at a good price.

Race 8

(1) INTENDED STYLE, has been on a roll in this class and will be very tough to beat from the rail here. (5) FOREGO THE CIGAR was an impressive winner at Georgian first time out for the Nixon barn and looks like the main threat. (3) GENESEE has had several rough trips and is capable of better if he can land in a good spot early near the front.

Race 9

(8) DOUBLEDOWN GASS beat similar two back with a big first-over effort. Expect Gassien to blast this one off the gate and attempt to go down the road. (7) WEST SIDE STORY finally got his gait issues figured out last time and got up late. He is capable of beating these and is sure to be a better price here. (3) BURNIN MONEY has been sharp for several weeks and will be coming late, as usual.

Race 10

(7) BIG MAGICK drops to face one of his weakest fields yet and should be up on or near the pace throughout. (2) WILDCAT LIGHTNING keeps coming close and gets Lasix here. He is one of seemingly few contenders. (4) R U MACHIN ME chased a good one last time out and can share here vs. this mostly easier group. (3) JIMMY BE GOOD exits the same dash as the one above and will fight for one of the minor awards. (6) REAL RAYE comes in off two easy wins at Kawartha and could better this placing.

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