05/03/2015 12:11PM

Mohawk: Monday 5/4 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY $1 PICK 4:

3,6,7/5,6/4,6/2,8,10 = $36

 

LATE $1 PICK 4: 2,5,9/3,7,8/8/2,3,4,5 = $36

MEET STATS: 45 - 136 / $246.10 BEST BETS: 8 - 12 / $25.60

SPOT PLAYS: 2 - 11 / $32.60

Best Bet: P L IDAHO (10th)

Spot Play: THE SHADOW KNOWS (6th)

Race 1

The opener is a tough call because it looks obvious that (3) TEAM CAPTAIN is best but he's now missed three weeks and comes off a vet scratch. Top call, but treading lightly at low odds. (5) AXELERATE SEELSTER is by a top sire out of a dam that has produced one winner that has gone in 1:51 and won 8 times; contender. (8) COLD DUDE went a long mile on the rim and almost lasted. He is another contender.

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Race 2

(5) GOLDEN SLUMBER is from a dam that has produced 3 winners from 3 that have raced who have totalled 40 wins and more than $800K in earnings. Scary to think what one by Muscle Hill might do; top call. (4) TYRONE ZOEY hinted at some ability last year and returns off a nice qualifier; contender. (8) MARQUIS VOLO stayed flat last week after several miscues in earlier qualifiers. Maybe trainer Gillis figured something out.

Race 3

(6) CHEYENNE REIDER miscued early last time and lost any hope. He could rebound here at a square price. (5) I SCOOT SAM had trouble catching cover but was claimed and fits here. (4) AMBLE OVER HANOVER sat a good trip and got up late in a rapid mile. He can contend here right back.

Race 4

(6) TWIN B TK left hard, released one to the front then couldn't get out early enough to reach the winner. Three more strides he was in front; top call here. (7) POISONOUS took a ton of money at the windows then disappointed off a first-up trip. He could make amends here. (3) SKY GUY has been showing the signs late in his miles and could do if put into the race earlier.

Race 5

(6) COVERT OPERATIVE was too far back early then out-tripped by a pocket puller at the 3/4. Look for him to get involved earlier in the final of this series here. (5) HEMI SEELSTER improved greatly to win in fast time but was set back for interfering with one that may have been going by late. He is dangerous. (10) TAROT is obviously one of the better ones, but we'll try and beat him from out there in this contentious dash.

Race 6

(6) THE SHADOW KNOWS went a big first-up trip against an impressive colt last week in his best effort yet. We'll call this rapidly-improving son of Shadow Play on top. (4) TICKET TO ROLL was just short in his second start over the track and should be kept on pick 4 tickets. (9) MYHONEYTELLSALL won two straight vs. lesser but the waters get deeper here; for a minor share.

Race 7

Those making their sophomore debuts look best here and of those we'll call (2) NOR STAR RENEGADE on top. Menary's barn has been firing on all cylinders and this one looks improved over last year. (8) REGAL SIGHT returns for McIntosh and was competitive in the Autumn Series; using. (10) NATURESCAPE has shown good speed both early and late in his qualifiers and has a big shot of McNair rolls him early.

Race 8

(5) WINDSONG LEO came from an impossible spot after getting backed up by some bad cover last out and still won comfortably. These are tougher but he should be up to the challenge. (9) ARAMBLIN HANOVER raced well in his season debut but always seems to fall short; note the 9 slices from 19 starts. (2) DIXIELAND BAND was one of the best rookies in the Maritimes last season and moves to the Dr. Ian Moore stable here for his local debut.

Race 9

(7) NORTHERN VICTORY drops to a class where he should make his presence felt; top call. (3) CATCH THE DREAM closed hard in his season's debut to just miss; contender here. (8) CHARLIE IS A JOKER also gets class relief but is terribly win-shy. A minor award is likely for him.

Race 10

(3) P L IDAHO has yet to taste competition that could even warm him up yet this season. He looks best here, too; Best Bet. (7) SEAFORTH suffered a brutal trip last time and should be able to angle into a good spot early here. He's likely the only danger to the choice. (9) AMORA BEACH was good enough to race in the Metro Stakes final last year and goes here for the red-hot Menary barn.

Race 11

(4) MR DENNIS was a big 'go' last week but got pushed to an insane 1/2 which took its toll. A repeat of that effort coupled with slightly better luck gets him home here. (3) FRIDAYNIGHTFLIGHT was an easy winner Thursday night and has a big shot here too - if he goes. (2) WHOSURPAL made a huge move - maybe too much too soon - to the front then faded. He can go better here with more patient rating. (5) CANBEC KINGKAZMIR showed late interest last time and drops in class; for a slice. (6) BLISSFUL YEARS has been hampered by several bad posts in a row. He is better than he shows on paper and could blow up the exotics here.

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