04/19/2015 4:55PM

Mohawk: Monday 4/20 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


2,4/7,8,9/4,7/5,6,8,9 = $48


LATE $1 PICK 4: 5,6,8,9/4,6,9/5/1,5 = $24

MEET STATS: 14 - 52 / $65.70 BEST BETS: 4 - 5 / $13.30

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 4 / $0.00



Race 1

(6) AMITYVILLE LINDY looked good starting her 3YO campaign and was beaten by a very good filly who is unbeaten. She can take these if she stays trotting. (5) TOP DOLLAR got moving earlier and parlayed that into a nice win with good late speed; the one to beat. (7) GUSCREST beat a very weak field and is one to try to beat here if he takes a lot of money which is likely.

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Race 2

(2) HEMI SEELSTER - a 3-time winner last year - qualified nicely and looks all systems go for trainer Bax; top call in a mostly weak group. (5) TAROT wasn't driven aggressively early last time and paid the price when he made his move with the pace accelerating. Look for him to be on the point by the half here. (3) IN SECRET closed from far back on a wet track to win and is in good form; he will be a factor late.

Race 3

(5) COVERT OPERATIVE is simply the best and fastest horse in this race. He looks much the best but will be a very short price. (2) IRISH SCOTCH has a bit of talent as witnessed by his win in a leg of the Autumn Series. He can fill the place spot here. (4) ONTHEROAD DE VIE is improving but still looks likely for a smaller share here.

Race 4

(2) ADVERSARY SEELSTER is a classic win-shy type but seems to have found a group with similar traits that he might be able to take down here. (4) MY MAN CHARLEY has suffered brutal parked-out trips the past two. If he can get tripped-out here he can win this. (5) MONTE CHRISTO is likely to take big cash at the windows on the class drop but he hates to win. We'll try to beat him.

Race 5

(4) CANADIAN WRITER left well then loomed late at a huge price in her debut. She will take a lot more action off that effort but is one of the top contenders here. (8) CAJON LIGHTNING motored home in his most recent qualifier and can make his presence felt late here. (9) SPOIL SPORT ships in off a good mile at Rideau and goes for the potent Laroque/Filion team; beware.

Race 6

(7) SEAFORTH showed some talent last year vs. stakes company and now drops out of the Youthful Series to meet a field he can boss; top call. (4) J JS DELIVERY also drops out of the Youthful Series but only contested one leg. The gaps between races are concerning. (1) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT drops from NW3 to NW2 and other than the top two this is easier company for him.

Race 7

(5) NORTHERN VICTORY got on a good roll here at Mohawk last year. Maybe dropping from the Preferred might produce a wake-up effort. He's certainly capable of much better than he has shown in the past 3; Spot Play. (6) SWAN IN A MILLION makes his second start of the year and he too excelled here last year winning several and taking a lifetime mark. He will be motoring late. (8) COOL GUY will likely lead to the 3/4 and maybe beyond but will have trouble holding off the top two.

Race 8

(6) WINDSONG LEO has been lights out for trainer/driver O' Brian and should be tough again here with the grit and late speed he has been displaying. (9) THE BATTLE BEGINS makes a curious move from Robinson to Menary but faces much easier, too. Keep on pick 4 tickets. (4) WINDSONG LIGHTNING switches to a much higher % barn and also should be used in the pick 4 on that angle alone.

Race 9

(5) PANTHEON HANOVER was closing fastest of all in the Youthful Final but a bit too wide and too late. He should make short work of this group. (1) ONWAYTOSANTAFE was impressive breaking his maiden but the choice is much tougher than anything he faced then. (6) GOOD FRIDAY THREE was an impressive debut winner while racing greenly but he will need a lot more speed to threaten the choice here.

Race 10

(5) FRIDAYNIGHTFLIGHT was hung the mile vs. better last week. He could drop and pop here. (1) HOPE FOR BADLANDS makes his second start of the season and looks like the main danger moving inside. (8) LUCKY TERROR has been facing some pretty tough claimers and might be able to sneak into the tri at a big price vs. these. (4) SAVANNAH SPLENDOR showed good improvement the past two and is another that can share. (5) CHASIN RACIN has good closing power on his best day and should find his way into the High-5 late here.

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