04/08/2016 10:51PM

Mohawk: Monday 4/11 Analysis


By Garnet Barnsdale

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


20-CENT PICK 5: 3,5,6/1,3,6,7/3,4/1,2,4,6/3,7 = $38.40

EARLY PICK 4: 1,2,4,7/3,7/3/1,2,4 = $24

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,4/2,5,6/5,8/4,6 = $36

MEET STATS: 4 - 10 / $31.80  BEST BETS: 1 - 1 / $17.20

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 1 / $0.00

Best Bet: BURNIN MONEY (6th)

Spot Play: MITTNAGE A TROIS (4th)

Race 1

(5) ON THE RIDGE produced a relentless rally last time to get up late in poor conditions. He has some upside and can improve further in this his 8th lifetime start; top call. (6) BLENHEIM showed some promise last fall and his lone qualifier was pretty good on a track rated two seconds slow. He could pop at first asking here. (3) PUKKA ships in off a sharp front end win out of town and isn't out of this.

Race 2

(7) BIG RICH gets off the dreaded Woodbine rail and should be able to blast off much better here from the outside in a small field; top call. (1) OUR MOJO could trip out again behind the choice and that good possibility makes him a must-use in the Pick 5. (6) BAGS FOR ALL is another that should be racing closer early which makes her an exacta factor here.

Race 3

(3) DONICUS continues to roll right along and simply looks too fast for this group. Something would have to go amiss for him to get beat here. (4) P C FOREIGN AFFAIR won at long odds of a similar qualifier last year and looks like one of few threats to the choice. (2) WINDSUN MISSILE raced well in his lone start of 2016 and should be closing for a piece of this.

Race 4

(1) MITTNAGE A TROIS is bred to be much better than he performed last season. He had a decent qualifier free-legged and could pop at a price in this suspect field. (6) SEEDLING has gone two big third quarters and paid for it late in his two starts to date. A better trip makes him a contender here at a price. (4) THINK BIGGER raced okay in his only WEG circuit start and could go forward here.

Race 5

(7) HEAVENLY HILL was an easy winner last week and seems to lay over this group on class. A new life's mark tonight wouldn't be a shock. (3) NOONE TO DEPEND ON is in good form now and should get good fractions to close into. She looks like the main danger. (9) BLUEBERRY HILL showed little last week but is sure to be asked earlier here and should perform much better.

Race 6

(3) BURNIN MONEY takes a big class drop here and should handle this group. (5) PISCEAN has been razor-sharp lately and should sit another good trip near the front. She could upset the choice if she can work out a perfect trip. (1) MISSYS GA GA found a first-over journey to be too taxing last time. She can share off a covered trip here.

Race 7

This race will likely come down to the two horses going first off the claim. I'll side with (4) MEERSBURG, who shoots for his 5th win in his 6 tries and goes for the white-hot Weller barn. (2) INTENDED STYLE is a win machine that goes for the top barn and top driver. He is a must-use. (1) LISVINNIE improved sharply last time and is another to consider for multi-race tickets.

Race 8

(6) HLDONTGHTTOYURDRMS is the “now” horse in the division and can take another here if he is as sharp as he was last week. (5) FEARLESS MAN is always dangerous on the lead but is much better some weeks than others and it's not easy to guess if he will keep going on the lead or not. (2) ETRUSCAN HANOVER took his life's mark here last year but hasn't been at his best the past three starts. He is another that should share, but could easily win if he brings his best race to the track.

Race 9

(5) BIG PETES STYLE has really excelled with McNair driving and looks good to take another here. Based on recent races he would move up on a wet track if that condition presented itself. (8) REAL KID has fallen just short to the same rival twice straight but that foe isn't in here. He could notch his first 2016 win here. (6) PERFECT VISTA went a long first-over grind last time and stuck around for a share. A better trip would make him more dangerous.

Race 10

Both (6) ONE WARAWEE and (4) HES A SENSATION have faced far better recently and figure to be the main protagonists in the finale. Give the edge to the former who will likely get the jump on the latter. (2) MACHAPELO made two moves last time but got hung out in the back half. He can take a big share here with a better trip. (5) MONTE CHRISTO has also faced better and can take a small slice here. (3) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT is a hard knocker that could better this placing.

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