09/26/2012 4:23PM

Mohawk: Friday 9/28 Analysis


Best Bet: CJS SUSIE (1st)     Spot Play: YUMMY SUSHI (4th)

Race 1

(4) CJS SUSIE ran into the gate last week, so I'm going to still put her on top this week. Great win record this year and I think she can handle this class. (1) KNIGHT OF INTRIGUE is a longshot play, but had put up some decent miles at Kawartha Downs. He'll need to step up. (7) ERICSKARRI is getting jammed into a claimer for Montini. He always puts his horses in where they can win.

Race 2

(1) JENNA CASIMIR closed very well last week, but ran out of real-estate. I can't see her getting away seventh from post one this week. (10) SANS FRONTIERE almost notched her third win of the season last week. I only hope she doesn't get away too far back. (3) REAL JOY clearly loves to be on the front. I don't know what happened last week with that terrible final quarter.

Race 3

(1) BURNIN MONEY was my top pick last week, but went a tough trip. That won't happen from a post one start in here. I hope we get some value. (8) SUGAR VALLEY ALLEY deserves a try on this circuit. He's got enough speed to be here from a very credible trainer. (6) HESGOTLEGS should be considered.

Race 4

This is a rather wide-open event but, (4) YUMMY SUSHI made up a ton of ground last week. She proves she belongs at this level. (1) SHADYS M THREE finally hit the board for the first time last week. I hope that trend continues. (10) JONNIE MACH got tired late last week after being the favourite. She can get off the gate well, so post 10 doesn't bother me.

Race 5

(2) BETTER THAN YOU has gotten significantly better in both of his two career starts. He comes from a hot barn and will likely be the post time favourite. (5) SWEET COLT OF MINE has been very consistent all season from six starts. This is a light field and he could easily hit the board again. (9) BOOTS N BOURBON draws outside again, but raced very well last week despite the outside post. I hope he can get off the gate this week; otherwise I don't like his chances.

Race 6

It looks like Jones & Filion have found the secret to (4) BAVARDE. She's stepping up in class, but she's been winning effortlessly in her last two starts. (10) SHE WEARS IT ALL will have to overcome the outside post, but has trotted in 1:54 1/5. She's a factor. (8) SOPRANO HANOVER has trotted some respectable miles for team Baillargeon. I'm looking for an all-filly triactor.

Race 7

This is a terrific betting race, but I'm going to back (2) SMOKEYS LUCK. Suffered a first-over trip last week and still drew off to win with an impressive final quarter. (5) DOIN TIME TOGETHER will have to be better, but I wouldn't count him out. (1) LOST IN PANSLATION is dropping down in class, but shows an excellent record this season.

Race 8

This time of the year, you always find two-year-olds who are getting tired and I think (8) MACH IT SO can benefit off that. He's lightly raced, fresh and was a convincing winner in his elimination. (7) UP UP AND OUT was the other elimination winner and got interfered with during the mile. You won't get the value like last week. (4) TARPON HANOVER would likely of been my top selection, but he flattened out last week in deep stretch. He'll have to be better. Also, don't count out the other Menary entry, (3) WINDSONG JACK.

Race 9

(6) HERO OF MY DREAMS looks like her best stride comes when he's on or near the front. From a post six start, I'm looking for a similar trip. (1) HOUSE MONEY surprised me with his winning effort last week from post 10. Now, he's blessed with the rail and I'm expecting another top effort. (8) HERES THE MAGIC has been very consistent hitting the board in his last three starts. You may get value.

Race 10

(1) MODERN CONNECTION now has a start under her belt after a pair of qualifiers and closed very well last week. She won't be 25-1 in here and is very fresh. I'm looking for a Menary exactor as I picked (3) TEA PARTY PRINCESS for second. She was a near winner last week and will likely be in the mix early. (2) MAUREEN ROCKS certainly has her game face back on with a pair of victories. A short field will only help her usual off-the-pace tactics.

Race 11

(4) DIDRICKSON gets major class relief and appreciates a big track. She loves to come from off-the-pace and I admire her post four starting position. (9) ROCA REI can race from near the front or behind and has been a threat in her last two starts. (2) ST LADS PEEPER simply got away too far back last week. I can't see that happening tonight from post two. She has the potential to upset.

Race 12

(2) RED STAR HANNAH closed like a freight train in her last start for Umphrey. She has a small break and I think she can only benefit from that. I'm not sure what happened to (6) PINK KANGAROO last week, but I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt. She's a class mare. (10) MY RED HIGH HEELS offered value last week and hit the board. She's a longshot play.

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