09/21/2016 2:51PM

Mohawk: Friday 9/23 Analysis

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Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

20-CENT PICK 5: 1,2,4,9/9/5,7/3,7,8,10/1,2,4,7 = $25.60

EARLY PICK 4: 3,7,8,10/1,2,4,7/4/4,5,10 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 3,6,7,9/1,3,5/4,5/1,5 = $48

MEET STATS: 360 - 1081 / $1865.90  BEST BETS: 59 - 99 / $185.90

SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 99 / $131.00

Best Bet: HILL OF A COLT (2nd)

Spot Play: STEPPIN OUT (6th)

Race 1

(1) MAYFIELD DUKE sports two :26 and change kickers most recently and he could get a perfect setup here with at least three that figure to blast off the gate; call to upset. (9) FLAHERTY faces easier here and he could go a long way on the front if he can clear before the 1/4. (4) BLAISE MM HANOVER is another facing easier that must be considered. Notice he finished on even terms with Flaherty last time. (2) RED DOG SALOON is another closer to consider in a race that has the potential to fall apart late.

Race 2

(9) HILL OF A COLT has been nothing short of sensational so far and it's hard to imagine his winning streak coming to an end here. (1) TOUGH GET GOING took a big shuffle last time. He should get a much better trip here from close range and is an exactor factor. (5) HILLS ANGEL - with 7 thirds in 16 starts this year so far - is again a good bet to fill the bottom of the tri. (2) SERGEANT SEELSTER is worth a look sporting a 67% win percentage out of town.

Race 3

(5) LINDWOOD BEACHGIRL has missed some time, but, she rarely loses when in classes like these; slight nod. (7) LAY LADY LAY hinted at a return to her best form by firing a :26 3/5 kicker in a quick mile; using. (1) BAD AS LEADER bottomed out a decent field last time and her improving form should be respected here. (4) CRACKLIN ROSIE returns off a sharp qualifier but she could be prepping for a sire stake here; minor award predicted.

Race 4

(8) CAROLINA HURRICANE never really got into the race last week. His price will go up here and he should get a more aggressive steer from McNair. (3) ALWAYS A HOTSHOT goes first time for trainer Maxwell here off a sharp qualifying effort on September 13th. Toss him on your multi-race bets. (7) KINGSLEY B was first-up chasing some hot fractions last time. He could surprise here off an easier trip. (10) CRUISE PATROL jogged in non-winners of two in July then raced in several stakes. He could overcome this post facing easier here.

Race 5

(7) SOUTHWIND GEISHA should go much better here making her second start off a break and dropping to the bottom conditioned level. (1) YOUR MY SECRET's rally at big odds fell just short last time. She should get a good following trip here. (2) JUSTABIT MEAN drops and moves inside and should still bring a decent price but she is in with a shot here. (4) JORDIES HOPE does her best work when she is on the lead. Maybe Saftic sends her this time after several failed closing attempts?

Race 6

(4) STEPPIN OUT takes a big drop here and he should be tough to overhaul on the lead vs. these. (9) HUBBY NUMBER ONE also drops to the bottom and he will be the main threat if he can leave in the top four or five. (7) BAGS FOR ALL is another dropper to consider but she seems destined for a smaller share this time. (5) ODDS ON AMETHYST was a strong winner in this class last time but that field was weaker and he should find a couple of these much tougher.

Race 7

(4) DRACHAN HANOVER could get a perfect trip on a helmet the way the shape of this race figures to set up; top call. (5) BLAYDE HANOVER has been in excellent form for several weeks and he too could get a great trip here. (10) EASY LOVER HANOVER was right there chasing a wicked pace for most of the mile vs. the best on the continent. If he clears early, look out! (3) MR CARROTS figures to fill one of the minor slots here.

Race 8

(3) SIR GALAHAD shoots for three straight in a race that appears to be no tougher than his most recent start; slight nod. (9) A BETTORS RISK closed a ton of ground in his comeback race. Look for Henry to send this gelding this time with that tightener out of the way. (6) ALL THE COOKIES has been facing tougher and hasn't been disgraced. He should get a better result here vs.  non-winners of two. (7) THE KERNAL has shown enough speed to contend here but he would need a trip to topple them all.

Race 9

(5) ASAP HANOVER paced his own back 1/2 in :53 2/5 to score last week. He couldn't be sharper; call to repeat. (3) CARRACCI HANOVER took a big shuffle last week. The short field should help him here and he could trip out in the pocket; using. (1) DUC DORLEANS will likely be a big speed threat dropping and leaving from the inside. He is another strong option in a contentious group. (4) ERLE DALE N raced better last time. He can take a share here.

Race 10

(4) STACIA HANOVER should enjoy facing much easier here and beat these at a short price. (5) LIGHTS GO OUT moves to the middle of the gate and she should get put into this race early. (1) RIDE AWAY SHARK will likely look for a following trip near the front here. She should share. (6) BET YA is in great form and she will be passing horses late for another share here.

Race 11

(5) KISS ME OR NOT has a better chance of clearing early here which could make all the difference for her. (1) HOPE FOR PADDY is a drop-and-pop specialist that you must use in the late Pick 4. (7) ST LADS PENNY LANE is another that should enjoy easier company here. Look for her late. (6) TWIN B INSPIRING can be a big speed threat here; toss her in at a price. (3) NINETTE B seems to finish 4th or 5th every week. Put her on the bottom of your vertical wagers.

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