09/19/2012 5:41PM

Mohawk: Friday 9/21 Analysis

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Best Bet: MONKEY ON MY WHEEL (9th)      Spot Play: ADDISON BAY (5th)

Race 1

(10) HESGOTGOTLEGS was super in his last start and I think he can overcome post 10. (4) CJS SUSIE has an excellent win percentage this season and I think she can make the jump to the big track. (1) FANCY SHOT was recently timed in 1:54 4/5 and that should be enough to win at this race.

Race 2

(1) DOIN TIME TOGETHER is my top selection in here from post one. He's shown consistent miles in 1:51. That should be enough to win. (3) FIRST VICTOR may seem like a longshot play, but he drops down in class and I think he'll appreciate that. (6) OIL TUMBLES has been very consistent this season and shows a decent enough record.

Race 3

(8) BEER MAGS might be a longshot play, but I think he's capable of stepping up to this level for new conditioner Baillargeon. He also has a consistent record this season which never hurts. (1) PAIGING KADABRA has been getting better with every start and I hope he gets a better trip than last week. (5) SOULFOUL DELUGHT appreciates coming from off the pace and I think he'll enjoy post five. Don't overlook his last race. Great closing speed.

Race 4

(7) ROCK ANN ROLLING is dropping down in class and is certainly due for a win. He's a much better horse than he's showing. (1) STONEDUST CAMMY is a longshot play, but I was very impressed with his effort last start on this circuit. Starting from post one is always a plus. (10) BOUND TO ROCK has three starts under her belt now and I think she's ready to step up, even from post 10.

Race 5

(8) ADDISON BAY has posted two straight wins and is moving up in class, but I feel she's still the best in here. (4) ABBEY ROAD HANOVER has a decent enough record this season and continues to pace in 1:51-1:52. (3) MODERN CINDERELLA is due for a win. She has raced at a much higher level. She should be on your ticket.

Race 6

This race is completely wide open in my opinion but I went with (3) LYONSPARKHAVENLAKE. She finally draws inside and I think that will make a big difference in her performance. (4) POINTSMAN is a value play, but he raced very well in his last start at Georgian Downs. I also think the big track will suit him. (5) AINT NO MO will offer value. McNair also has his young troops ready. We could see a very high triactor/exactor in this race.

Race 7

(1) RED SHADOW has really found her best stride as of late and I hope that continues from post one. She continues to improve. (3) EXQUISITE ALBERTA is moving up in class, but I'm very confident she can go at this level. She always finishes with a ton of kick. (4) PRECIOUS CAMMILL seems to be an inconsistent performer, but I don't think I can leave her off the ticket. She draws inside and is always a threat at this level.

Race 8

(3) MERRY MAIDEN continues to surprise me because I didn't think she was this good. She steps up in class, but gets post relief to her benefit. (7) PAPER BACKED LINDY comes back to this circuit and the Zeron-Antonacci combination has been terrific this season. This horse certainly can win. (9) TALE TO TELL has been a longshot in his most recent outings and continues to be a factor in every race. You simply can't count him out.

Race 9

(4) MONKEY ON MY WHEEL has been finding her best stride as of late. Her third-place effort two starts ago leads me to believe she's ready to find the winner's circle. (6) CAMILLE had no luck in the Milton, but is always a factor when she's not racing against Grand Circuit mares. (5) MODERN CONNECTION qualified three times, but I think she'll need a start to regain her full form.

Race 10

This race was a tough one to handicap, but I choose (5) NICKLE BAG. I admire his qualifier and final quarter speed. (10) TALKING BLUES has posted some speedy racelines. Had he drawn inside, he likely would have been my top selection. (2) FUDGE is a horse you cannot count out simply because of the McIntosh-Waples combination. He draws inside and shows gate speed.

Race 11

(6) THE UNSUB went a tough trip last start over Hiawatha. He's won at Mohawk in 1:51 4/5 and I think that type of mile will seal the deal. (4) MACHAPELO has had a few weeks off and I think that will only benefit him. I think Norman will have him ready. He's got a poor record this season, but I'm going to take a shot. (9) CARSONS CRACKER has been very consistent in his latest outings and is due to jump up for the win. The big track suits him well.

Race 12

(6) ST LADS PEEPER has been in my selections that past two starts and that isn't going to change. I just hope she's not 12-lenghts off at the half. Have a look at (1) ROCA REI's racelines. She finally draws inside which makes her a big factor in my opinion. (4) KEYSTONE JUBILEE is a selection I'm going to take because she always seems to be in the picture at some point in the mile. It could be her night.
 

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