09/16/2015 3:51PM

Mohawk: Friday 9/18 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

4,5/2,4,5,7/3,4/1,3,5,6 = $64

 

LATE PICK 4: 5,6,8/5/2,3/4,9,10 = $18

MEET STATS: 319 - 1018 / $1735.70 BEST BETS: 45 - 91 / $146.30

SPOT PLAYS: 12 - 87 / $92.30

Best Bet: WORLD CLASS IZZY (9th)

Spot Play: NATIONALIZE (5th)

Race 1

(7) IRISH SCOTCH wasn't far back vs. a good group in a conditioned race last time now gets Filion back which could make the difference in this wide-open Grassroots Semi-Final. (5) A LITTLE MORE LOVE did well to grab 4th after starting from the worst post at Flamboro last week. He was a sharp winner two back and looks like he is getting good at the right time. (2) PARKHILL LANCELOT is another that is improving as the final approaches and should be heard from here.

Race 2

(3) BROOKDALE SHADOW drops in class and it looks like she can control the pace here or work out a pocket trip as there is very little other early speed signed on. Her tactical speed advantage makes her the top choice here. (2) MARQUISE DE SARAH makes her 4th start back and is getting closer. She gets better as the weather gets cooler and would be no surprise here. (1) MARLEE B raced big last week to fall just short after being out a long way. She could be the other leaver here with Henry at the controls.

Race 3

(1) RENEGADE MAGIC went a long trip last time at Hanover and just missed. She excels on the bigger track and should be tough in here. (6) MEADOW SEELSTER was a predictable winner last time but these are tougher and she will likely face more pace pressure as last time there was none. (7) HAPE stayed sharp with a race against older mixed company last week. Don't discount her off that start, in fact, put a line through it.

Race 4

(5) LIGHTS GO OUT made an uncharacteristic break last time perhaps due to the off track. She made a great recovery to grab third and should be prominent here if she behaves. (4) ONYOURMARKNATAVA has faced better in non-winners of three races classes lately and could spring an upset here facing a group of mainly win-shy types.  (1) BOAT HOUSE ROW has only one win so far this season but should get a good trip here and is a threat.

Race 5

(5) NATIONALIZE won nicely four back then had three trips that one could make excuses for. She gets McNair here; upset special. (4) DUBLIN ROSE missed the board for the first time last year when hung out pressing a rapid pace. Respect her consistency and toss her on your pick 4 tickets. (2) MUCH ADOO races much better when starting from an inside post and has upset possibilities here. Many of these Grassroots races have been won by bombs the past couple of weeks.

Race 6

(4) DUH BUBBEES fell just short last week at big odds vs. his elders. He will likely try to control things here; top call. (3) IN SECRET has shown he fits well vs. Grassroots foes and picks up Christoforou here which will make him that much tougher; using. (5) MANDEVILLE looks solid to make the ticket but minor awards seem to be his ceiling.

Race 7

(5) HIS BOY ELROY took a new life's mark four back in a Grassroots events then faced some tough customers and wasn't embarrassed. He looks awfully tough vs. this group. (3) MACH CODE was paced off his feet by a hot horse last week that has burned up the track two weeks straight. He can give the choice something to think about here. (1) DIALAMARA was racing better early in the year but can get a piece of this starting from the inside.

Race 8

(8) THINKOFAGAMEPLAN was an unlucky loser last week as he had lots of pace on the far turn but no room until very late in the mile. He can topple these at a price with the right trip. (6) SOUTHWIND INDY has been very sharp the past few weeks and is the one to knock off here. (5) SPORTING THE LOOK can track quick fractions and keep coming - see the 1:51 2/5 mile in late July - and could trip out in the pocket here.

Race 9

(5) WORLD CLASS IZZY used a :27 3/5 third 1/4 two back to brush and crush her rivals then broke on Hanover's 1/2-miler. She gets her regular pilot back here which should make a difference. (8) JUDY THE BEAUTY got hung the mile last time and hung on decently, considering. She has a good chance to land in a better spot early here. (6) GIONA has won three straight up on the pace and can't be tossed as sharp as she's been.

Race 10

(3) CAST NO SHADOW comes in off a sharp victory but has missed some time and likely has the OSS Superfinals in her sights; your call. (2) WRANGLER MAGIC has a habit of losing in these dashes and winning the big ones. This isn't the easiest race on the card to figure. (Note: top choice Doctor Terror was scratched).

Race 11

(4) LOVELY ERIN never looks the soundest on the track but she's as tough as they come and knows where the wire is; beat her to greet the cashier. (9) STONEBRIDGE QUEST is another tough filly that has shown speed both early and late in her miles. Post 9 is no bargain here, but she could overcome it. (10) EVAS GIRL has been an impressive winner of her last three starts and has won from the 10-hole before. She's another in with a shot here.

Race 12

(5) BAROCKEY returns from a break with a solid qualifier in tow and trainer Auciello has had success with these types this year. This isn't the toughest field to face first time back; top call. (2) WILDCAT HANNA raced tough on a sloppy track last week and was only picked off late by one closer but no one else was close. She has a weak win record but could get the job done here if Jamieson can find the pocket early (4) MOREMUNKYBUSINESS raced better last time for a cagey conditioner and could hit the ticket at a big price here.

Race 13

(8) MILEYS BIG WORLD raced very well last week and looked like the winner until another mare re-surged late. She has been an excellent claim for Moreau and is a top contender here. (2) OCEANVIEW BINDI has been on fire since returning from a break and will have to be caught. (4) DOUBLE JOY has 14 thirds in her past 50 starts and is a good bet to fill that slot again off a following trip here. (6) REGAL LUCK went from 1st to 6th last time from the 1/4 to the finish yet paced her own last 1/4 quicker than the first one. This field is easier and she should contend here. (5) I GOT TO BOOGIE got a better trip and a better result last time and should make this high-5 ticket too.

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