09/12/2012 4:19PM

Mohawk: Friday 9/14 Analysis


MEET STATS: 19 - 50 / $86.00

Best Bet: SWEET TALKIN SATIN (4th)     Spot Play: BRUSHSTROKES (13th)

Race 1

(1) MACH IT SO raced very well in his first career start last week. He closed very well from post eight. This week he’ll begin from post one in a short field. (2) OK FANTASTIC has already banked $40K this season without a win. He likes to hit the board. (4) NEPHIN posted an encouraging qualifier last week. Never overlook the Gillis-Jamieson combination, especially with a first-time starter.

Race 2

(3) WAITING ON A WOMAN goes into a claimer for the first time and this is a perfect fit for this horse. He’s got a good post and is very durable; terrific final quarter in his last race despite a bad post. (2) HESGOTLEGS won at a higher claiming level two starts ago and will face a lighter field in here. (1) WHIPLASH finally draws a favorable post and I expect him to benefit off that.

Race 3

(7) REVEN UP went a tough trip in his most recent and still scored the win. He’s been getting better with every start this season. (1) LINDYS JERSEY BOY is very consistent trotting in the 1:53-1:54 range and that alone makes him a big threat. (9) SOPRANO HANOVER has another outside post to deal with, but I can’t see Baillargeon taking back this week.

Race 4

(1) SWEET TALKIN SATIN got the job done last week from post 10 and has been given the rail in the same class. He’ll likely be the heavy favorite. (10) SOUTHWIND TERROR was a convincing winner last week. Filion will likely rush him off the gate to put him into contention early. (2) GONNA ROCK N ROLL has posted back-to-back second-place efforts. I’m not sure if he’s ready to win at this level.

Race 5

(6) BOUND TO ROCK has a pair of starts under her belt now and I believe she’s ready to step up. Her last effort, closing from well off the pace, was very convincing. (2) ADDISON BAY knows how to win races and last week was no different. She benefits from a hot trainer and a great post. (5) EXQUISITE ALBERTA has been racing terrific this season; even now for her new connections. I don’t expect that to change.

Race 6

(9) TALKING BLUES has yet to post a win this season and will likely offer a little value because of his last start. Two starts back, I was very impressed with him from post ten. (10) FUDGE shows he can leave or race from behind. Don’t count out a McIntosh youngster. (8) BOOTS N BOURBON showed a big improvement in his last effort. He’ll likely offer a high price.

Race 7

(9) DREAM ON HANOVER faces an easier field than in the Simcoe Stakes. If she can repeat her 1:53 4/5 effort, she should be a winner. (2) SHE WEARS IT WELL, much like DREAM ON HANOVER, is facing older horses, but I feel both fillies can handle it. Vanderkemp’s barn has been on a roll lately. I’m going to disregard (4) SUGNA’s last race from post nine. He draws a better post and I feel he can capitalize.

Race 8

(2) WHOLE LOTTA SHAKIN is classed perfectly at this level. He’s always been a consistent $10K claimer. After his win from post nine last week, he’ll likely be the favorite. (10) MCMURRARY HANOVER shows he can get off the gate very well and has been knocking on the door at this level. (6) XEXY has won at this level before; he could do it again.

Race 9

(3) DAY TO PONDER finally got back in the winner’s circle. I’m hoping Pereira has her figured out and the result continues. I picked (6) ST LADS PEEPER to win last week and she finished second with solid value. I’m going to go with her again after her encouraging performance. (1) MC TAYLOR will start from a much better post. She’s a bit of a longshot, but I think she can be there.

Race 10

(4) IDEAL NEWTON is a first-time starter for Vanderkemp, who as mentioned before, has a hot barn. She should be able to handle this class. It appears that (9) DREAMFAIR ETERNAL’s top game has worn off, but I still think she’s very competitive at this level. (1) MILEYS BIG WORLD has been very good all season, posting fast times. She’s a contender in here.

Race 11

(10) IN FOCUS is the class horse of this field and he gets major class relief. He’ll likely be the favorite. (5) GO GO RED MARTY has been very consistent at this level. He raced very well last week and I hope he’s put into position early in the race. (6) ZEUS LIGHTNING raced very well to finish second. He’s only won once this year from 19 starts, but he’s capable of hitting the board.

Race 12

(2) CAROLINES CULLEN N drops down in class again and gets a much better post to deal with. (3) MAUREEN ROCKS is a former track record holder at Mohawk. She’s got a pair of qualifiers under her belt and can certainly jump up for the win. Don’t overlook her with first time Lasix. (4) SWEET HEDGE is also a former Mohawk track record holder. She’s capable of being in the mix.

Race 13

(3) BRUSHSTROKES is my longshot play of the night. Montini has taken his horses to other tracks to get a win and brave his horses up before coming back to Mohawk. She could benefit off that. (9) DANCE UNTIL DAWN will need a trip to be a threat. She can overcome post nine. (8) MY RED HIGH HEELS is due to hit the board. With the right trip, she’s right there in this wide-open race.