08/26/2015 2:32PM

Mohawk: Friday 8/28 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


1,2,4,6/2,7/1,8/1,2,4,8 = $64


LATE PICK 4: 1/4,6,7,8/4,5,8/2,3,8 = $36

MEET STATS: 254 - 847 / $1443.20  BEST BETS: 34 - 76 / $113.10

SPOT PLAYS: 10 - 73 / $79.60

Best Bet: NINETTE B (2nd)

Spot Play: SHADYS M THREE (4th)

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Race 1

(2) SHOW BIZ HALL raced tough off the shelf last week closing into an accelerating pace and should be right there vs. these. (9) LMC MARSHMELLOW has been racing well against tougher from outer posts for weeks. She is the one to fend off. (3) GRANA PADANNO chased the same sharp winner twice in a row and should factor here with that one gone.

Race 2

(6) NINETTE B was reclaimed by Moreau last time and faces a field she shouldn't have much trouble with but she'll be a very short price. (5) A LOT OF SENSE gets McNair back and he's had a lot of success with her this year. If there's going to be an upsetter it will likely be her. (2) MARIGOLD BLOOM is likely for a minor share but is terribly win-shy this summer.

Race 3

(6) ELEGANT SERENITY has really come into her own this year and is impeccably-bred as you will see. She has beaten all comers except the top sophomore filly in the country and gets top call here. (7) SMOKINMOMBO is fast and classy and is the filly the choice will have to topple. (4) LILU HANOVER was no match for the super filly Muscle baby Doll down south but should be closer here.

Race 4

(6) SHADYS M THREE faced a rapidly-improving mare the past two and couldn't do much to cut into her lead. She figures to get a covered trip here and can vault by these late. (2) ROLLTIDEROLL is very tough when she's on her game and looks like she's coming back to her best now; beware. (1) DOUBLE JOY will be heavily-bet off her last quick mile but has faltered in the past when she had to do any work on her own. Take a short price on her at your own peril.

Race 5

(2) KAMIKAZE LINDY parlayed a sharp qualifier and driver change into a quick maiden victory last week. She can double up here but the price will be much lower. (7) GRONK tried a 1/9 shot first up last time in an OSS Gold and was easily repelled. This is a much easier task. (9) ELDORADO OF GOLD ships in and goes for the potent Adams/McNair combo. Don't sell this one too short.

Race 6

(1) D GS PESQUERO was asked for nothing from an outer post last week off a 16-day break but still closed in :54 1/5. She drops again and should be much more prominent early. (8) ST LADS PENNY LANE also drops and looks like the only real danger.  (4) I GOT TO BOOGIE stayed in last week and the tactic backfired. She can contend here but will likely have trouble with the top two.

Race 7

(2) GIRL DRAMA has shown improved late speed in her past two and should be able to get out in the top flight here which would help her chances; top call. (1) JOSEPH GERARD tired late now missed some time but trainer Auciello has won using this move in the past; contender. (8) BIG PACKAGE drops back into a claimer after racing against better and returns much quicker. He's a threat here.

Race 8

(1) MUSCLE BABY DOLL is quite simply the best sophomore filly trotter in the country - if not the continent - and tough to bet against here but she will be a prohibitive favorite, too. (4) BEE THE QUEEN has built up her confidence vs. lesser at Vernon and could complete this exacta. (3) LOCK DOWN LINDY shows a wicked 1:51 4/5 win in the Hambo Oaks elimination and several breaks, including in her most recent qualifier with trotting hopples used for the first time. We'll try to beat her out of the exacta here.

Race 9

(8) LADY SHADOW was too far back and on too much cover in the Artiscape to make an impact on the leaders but still closed well now returns to a 7-day cycle back on home soil. McNair sticks with her with his father's mare lined up next door; top call. (4) DOCTOR TERROR is having a great season and has beaten her elders already. This isn't the toughest Mares Preferred field; she figures here. (7) PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY finished ahead of the choice last time and has hit her best stride. She should be heard from here.

Race 10

(5) VICTORIA SEMALU has already won in this class and faced better the past two starts. She'll be looking to wire these. (4) LINDYS OLD LADY faces older but is fast and classy enough to contend here. (8) GRACIES PARADE keeps improving and should be closing for a share here,

Race 11

(2) LIVING HISTORY faced a very sharp winner last time and couldn't keep up to her. She drops back to a class she already won in two back and should be much better here. (3) SEAWIND KERRY raced evenly last time but figures highly in this fairly weak group. (8) COTTONWOOD CREEK gapped her cover on the far turn last time which likely cost her a placing. She should share here, however. (4) ARRIVISTA HANOVER seems to race better for Henry and has upset possibilities here. (9) FRANNEY LOVE DAT should leave out for position here and stick around for a slice.

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