07/03/2013 4:26PM

Mohawk: Friday 7/5 Analysis

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Race 4 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet: LEAVEUMLADY (8th)

Spot Play: SO LONG MY LOVE (12th)

Race 1

(3) MISS LIV captured both qualifiers including a speedy mile in her most recent. She comes from a top trotting barn and appears ready. (5) MAYBERRY trotted home in :28 1/5 in her qualifying session and Zeron has a solid reputation with young trotters. (6) A W might be considered a longshot because she didn't post a very fast qualifier. I'm going to use her because of her trainer. Henriksen has a terrific reputation with young horses.

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Race 2

(9) MARCELLA HALL is hard to overlook because she qualified both times very well and comes from trotting extraordinaire Takter. Even with a post nine start, I think she's the horse to beat. (3) RIVETING ROSIE draws inside, qualified very well and comes out of Bax's barn. She did it all on the front with a very good final frame. (8) BELGRAVIA used a :28 2/5 final quarter for trainer Noren to win her qualifier. She also is a top contender.

Race 3

(5) STRIKING SERENADE qualified very well at The Meadows and appears ready at first asking. She draws well and enjoys being put into the race. (3) DREAM ACT comes out of the O'Sullivan barn, draws inside and shows enough trot. (7) SUEGRABBITNRUN might be considered a longshot, but she has stayed flat in both qualifying sessions and enjoys trotting from behind. If she minds her manners, I think she can get a piece.

Race 4

(7) BEACH OF A TIME comes out of the Fan Hanover and into this class. She faces a much easier bunch, shows the speed to win and comes from a top conditioner. (3) SET ME UP came first-over last week and that's not her trip. With a cleaner steer, she's capable in this field. (5) MACH AWAY has enough speed and comes out of the Gold division. She draws well and races at her best when she's put into the race.

Race 5

(6) SEASIDE RORY has won three times from five starts this season and this series is a perfect fit for her. She has the speed to win and gets the Jamieson/Gillis combination. (5) I GOT TO BOOGIE is a perfect one-for-one to start her season and scored a comfortable win last week. She's very capable in here. (1) REGIL ELEKTRA draws inside and has a terrific record this season. She's a very good option for the triactor.

Race 6

(3) MISS AULTSVILLE has been praised by her trainer Kopas all winter and that's the main reason why she gets my top pick. Her qualifying effort demonstrated that and she likely won't offer a price. (2) PROFOUND WISDOM draws inside and also qualified very well. She came from behind and circled the field en route to victory. (1) MARGIE draws inside and went gate-to-wire in her qualifying effort at Vernon Downs.  That sets her up well in here.

Race 7

(7) INSINCERITY moves into the Moreau barn and that's the major reason for my pick. Moreau has a terrific reputation for first-time starters and it will only decrease her price. (5) KATYS JET drops in class and comes out of Coleman's barn. She's winless this season, but is a good option for the exactor. (8) BRUSHSTROKES paced a good mile last week with a :26 4/5 final quarter. She also drops in class.

Race 8

(7) LEAVEUMLADY got away too far back last week and wasn't a factor. She faces a much easier group in here and has demonstrated enough speed to win. (5) DOUKNOWWHEREURGOIN raced very well in her first start of the season and can only improve this week. This series is a nice fit for her. (3) LARK SEELSTER hasn't been at her best in recent weeks, but she draws well and is capable of a rebound effort. She should provide a fair price.

Race 9

(6) LUCK IS ALL INEED comes out of McNair's stable and has posted a pair of encouraging qualifiers. She shows enough trot and likely will step it up even more. (7) DANICA HALL only qualified once, but he did it the right way and looks like he's capable at first asking. He shows gate-speed and gets Ritchie in the bike. (2) APHRODITY draws inside and is a half-sister to Lady Rainbow (1:54.2 - $800,616). She shows enough trot and should get the correct trip.

Race 10

(8) MACH A WISH drops in class and that's the main reason for my selection. She enjoys racing from off-the-pace, has the speed and comes from a top barn. (4) DOCS HOPE also drops in class and draws much better. She's very versatile and I expect to see her aggressively-steered by Hudon. (1) TEA PARTY PRINCESS is a better mare than she's showing. She draws inside and is capable of hitting the board in here.

Race 11

(6) AMBLE OVER HANOVER has won two straight and although he moves up in class, I still feel he's capable of winning. This class isn't that much deeper and he's been impressive in both wins. (4) SHADOW BARAN has a terrific record this season and enjoys being put into the race. I like his chances in here based on his consistency this season. (10) CRAWFISH CREEK also has a good record this season, but will have to overcome post nine. He comes out of Moreau's barn, which can't be overlooked. I hope he's put into the race e

Race 12

(4) SO LONG MY LOVE comes out of the Winacott barn, which has been terrific this season. He moves onto this circuit, is capable of dropping time and has a very good record this season. (3) MISS DOLLAR MAM will make her second start this season and raced very well last week. She can only improve off that effort. (5) SOUTHWIND MIAMI draws well and returns to the same level that she won at last week. She caught a lot of people off guard with her victory and should get a favourable trip from post five.

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