07/01/2015 4:16PM

Mohawk: Friday 7/3 Analysis


Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool


2,5,6,9/7,9/2,5,6/3,4,6 = $72


LATE PICK 4: 3,4,10/4,7,9,10/8,9/2,3,8 = $72

MEET STATS: 151 - 474 / $869.50 BEST BETS: 19 - 42 / $68.20 SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 40 / $53.20



Race 1

(6) NAMESMUSCLE produced some good late speed the first time McNair drove last week. He stands a decent chance vs. this week group but may be over bet off his fast last 1/4 and overall time; let price be your guide. (4) THOUGHTFUL LEADER has yet to produce a breakout performance but he continues to show the signs; one of these times. (9) MOLON LAVE went a big trip from the outermost post last time at Grand River and would be no surprise here.

[MEADOWLANDS: Watch the Graduate Pace Final and entire Friday card--Live on DRF!]

Race 2

(9) KADABRASNEWRECRUIT has been rock-solid so far this year and should be able to take his third win in his fifth try in this Grassroots dash. (4) TOP DOLLAR is the best closer in the field and will be the benefactor if there is any early battling for the front. (2) DUH BUBBEES returns from a break off a solid qualifier in which he was beaten only by one who parlayed that trip into an OSS Gold win on Tuesday night. He is a threat from close range if he stays flat.

Race 3

(2) ROCKIN WITH DEWEY couldn't keep up with Bee A Magician when that mare made her decisive move in the Armbro Flight final and now returns to the Miss Versatility series where she last won. Don't let the 9th-place finish vs. the Queen Bee fool you; this mare can take this from on or near the lead. (4) CHARMED LIFE finished ahead of the choice last time after utilizing her cover. She is a threat, obviously, but has had a penchant for coming up short this year and is sure to be over bet here. (1) ALLIE LABROOK also shakes the division leader here and likely makes a move earlier in this mile.

Race 4

(5) KISS ME OR NOT, after two passive efforts vs. better, gets her regular teamster back here and the nod to take this competitive dash to start the early pick 4. (2) DOCTOR TERROR drops out of stakes company where she had a brutal trip in the Fan Hanover final and is quite capable of beating her elders here. (6) I GOT TO BOOGIE was an impressive winner two back then not asked for anything last time from the 10-hole on a wet track in brutally windy conditions. She should bounce back with a better effort here.

Race 5

(9) LETS BE HONEST has gone three very good trips in a row and should be tough in here, even from the 9-hole. (7) PILGRIMS JOY broke as the big favorite at Grand River and lost all hope. If he can duplicate his effort from June 4 here he will be a big threat. (3) EASTON ROAD trotted a promising mile first-over in his debut to finish 2nd at long odds. He will need to show more speed here but isn't without a chance.

Race 6

(2) THE CATAMOUNT KID is a half-brother to 7 winners including three that have gone faster than 1:50 flat. His second-quarter brush and crush was impressive in his lone qualifier and he gets a slight nod in what looks like a very competitive rookie maiden tilt. (5) HEAVYMETAL HANOVER is the second foal of a dam that was winless in four starts and has produced one unremarkable winner so far. This son of Up The Credit, however, has been ultra-impressive in his two trials and should be one of the main players here. (6) MCPHIL is a full-brother to a gelding that won 4 of 37 starts and took a mark of 1:55 2/5 at The Meadows. He too sports two impressive qualifiers coming in to this debut. This isn't a leg to go light in the early pick 4.                                   

Race 7

(4) CHALEURS FANTASY got rolling a bit too late in her WEG debut but showed she fits this conditioned claimer class well. She looks as good as any in this wide-open dash that likely goes to one that trips out. (3) TON OF LUCK chased solid splits then exited the pocket and drove away late to a new life's mark. Driver McNair, the meet's top driver by both # of wins and win %, will have this one positioned in a good spot from which to strike turning home. (6) SHHH ITS A SECRET has won three straight out of town - the last one in good time while making two moves - and is in with a shot here. Keep her on your pick 4 tickets.

Race 8

(3) BUZZ tipped his hand two starts back that a win was imminent then traveled to Grand River and easily won a Grassroots event. The heavily-staked son of Kadabra is now coming into his own and should be at the very least one of the better Grassroots performers by season's end.  (10) STORMONT WIZARD wasn't asked for anything early in his 2015 debut but did close a big gap from the 1/4 to the finish. He was a good Grassroots performer last year and it likely won't take him long to start getting bigger shares. Beware at a big price here. (4) NEW MUSCLE AS has two strong seconds in as many tries in this classification and is one of the obvious threats here.

Race 9

(4) SOUTHWIND GEISHA lost all hope last week when kept in during the third 1/4 leaving her trapped while the winner was making a big move. There is enough speed signed on here on the outside to suggest this one's patented late kick will come into play in deep stretch; upset special. (9) IMAGINE DRAGON will take all the action at the windows off a lifetime-best score last week but she took advantage of a sleepy pace to slingshot to the lead and accelerate away from her foes. Trip may be very different here and the price will be extremely low likely. (10) MOONLIT DANCE is quite obviously the best filly in here but it's hard to predict how her trip will go from out there. If Waples can float her out and land in the top six early she will be very tough.

Race 10

(8) ITS HUW YOU KNOW parlayed a driver change into an easy Grassroots win at Grand River last time. He retains Filion here and should be tough again in a field with few contenders. (9) DELCREST MASSY won a different Grassroots division the same night and trotted two seconds faster than the choice. He is the one to deny. (1) TSWALU is hard to like on top with his 0-17 lifetime record but he is a good one to include in exotic wagers.

Race 11

(2) P L HURRICANE couldn't reach a speedy winner that had set some soft early splits last time. Her last two starts have been a dramatic improvement and she should get her first win of the year soon; top call. (3) BETTOR OUT WEST scored a big upset two back by laying close to the early pace but then didn't leave last week and raced only evenly. She can be a big threat here if Waples sends her early. (8) ZIP CODE ENVY was no match for an impressive winner but fits better here. (10) ONYOURMARKNATAVA drops back to a level where she has shown she can compete and this trainer/driver combo struck with a bomb in a finale last week. (5) MACARENA MAMA has had some tough trips and is better than what she has shown in here last two. She could better this placing.

[POCONO DOWNS: Watch the Sun Stakes Finals LIVE on DRF!]