07/15/2015 1:29PM

Mohawk: Friday 7/17 Analysis

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Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

EARLY PICK 4:

10/7,9/2,3,4,5,7,8/1,3,9 = $36

 

LATE PICK 4: 5,10/1,2,3/3,7,8/4,6 = $36

MEET STATS: 168 - 560 / $981.10 BEST BETS: 20 - 50 / $71.10

SPOT PLAYS: 6 - 50 / $53.20

Best Bet: JOSEPH GERARD (1st)

Spot Play: DERECHO (3rd)

Race 1

(2) JOSEPH GERARD drops to the bottom claiming level and catches a really weak group. Expect a coast-to-coast victory at a puny price. (8) UTOPIA looks like he could be a threat to the choice if he's close enough turning home but that's hard to predict from out there considering also his typical slow starts. (3) DICKS SECRET has hit the exacta in 19 of her last 38 starts and her consistency should be respected.

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Race 2

(3) WILD CHANCE powered up into a quickening pace to nab 2nd in a terrific debut and looks solid to break his maiden here. (2) VEGAS DREAM was a decent third in his Mohawk debut and should contend here. (8) NORTHERN PRINCE debuts for Menary and likely has more speed than he showed in his qualifier.

Race 3

(6) DERECHO left hard for position then tried it first up against a very impressive winner. Now he gets a catch-driver and top call here. (4) SENIOR K got a brilliant steer on the engine from McNair last time and was an easy debut winner. He is the one to chase down.  (1) STONEBRIDGE BETTOR broke early, reset, but then was the victim of a slow pace. All of those factors considered, it wasn't a bad debut and there should be improvement coming here in his 2nd start.

Race 4

(10) LIGHTS GO OUT likely won't find an easier conditioned field as this one and MacDonell should have her moving much earlier than normal; top call and pick 4 single. (6) BOAT HOUSE ROW also drops and is likely to be driven aggressively looking for position from the outset. (3) BADLYINCLINED was a decent first-over winner out of town last time but these are tougher.

Race 5

(7) BLUE ZOMBIE left hard for position but was forced to take back behind the big favorite and then had to try to chase that one down first up. That was a good effort and he can score his first win here. (9) ST LADS CHARGER was visibly motoring in the last 1/16th which was all he was asked to do. He could threaten here if he gets out into the flow. (3) FIRST CAR got soft fractions on the engine and held off all but one that came home in :26 3/5 to beat him. He is an exacta factor here.

Race 6

(4) DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY powered up for an easy win in this class last week and is one of several options in a leg we'll go deep in the early pick 4. (8) JUSTALITTLEBITFASTER also closed quickly to win in a claimer breaking a long 0-fer streak for his driver/trainer. He looked so good on the end of that mile that he has to be in with a chance here. (5) EXEMPLAR drops in class and should be forwardly placed here; another contender.

Race 7

(3) MACHARONI N CHEESE was an impressive debut winner and this field doesn't look any tougher; call to repeat. (1) A BETTORS RISK is by a top sire and is a 1/2 to local pacer Canadian Edition (9 wins, 1:54 1/5). He looks well-prepped and is the main threat. (9) NOTETOSELF HANOVER had a solid opener vs. a confident winner and should be on your early pick 4 tickets.

Race 8

(5) ANDRO MADI set some quick splits and opened up a big lead but was nailed late by a sharp rival that swept the field. Perhaps a more patient steer gets it done tonight. (10) MILEYS BIG WORLD is the one that circled the field late and nailed the choice and she is another of few real contenders here. (2) MISS SAND CREEK moves into the Gillis barn and comes in here off a break with a good qualifier in tow; she is in with a shot.

Race 9

(2) PRINT MEDIA is one of several from Vintage Master's first crop that have notched impressive debut wins; call to repeat off that solid initial victory. (1) ONLY HALF BAD provided perfect cover for the choice and was only narrowly beaten. He looks like the main competition along with (3) WRITERS KRAMP who parlayed a following trip into a win first time over Mohawk.

Race 10

(3) ST LADS MOONWALK was motoring up nearing the wire last week but it was too late to get up for the win. The move inside gives him every chance to convert; top call. (8) THE BIG BEAST was a strong 2nd to an impressive winner despite encountering interference at the start. He is the main danger. (7) CALIFORNIA SUN had a clear lead setting reasonable splits but was outpaced to the wire. He can improve off that initial effort.

Race 11

(6) SOUTHWIND GEISHA was live in the Town Pro final but it was impossible to close into the soft splits that were carved out by the winner. She looks best here. (4) WINDSUN CHANEL's only poor effort recently was in the Kin Pace final over Clinton's 1/2-miler. She can rebound here with a much better try. (3) WAR FILLY is solid for a piece of the pie just about every time out; she should share here. (7) DANCIN CAROLL has had some issues this year. If she is fixed up, she's as good as any in here. (8) FRANNEY LOVE DAT is usually good for a minor share.

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