06/29/2016 3:27PM

Mohawk: Friday 7/1 Analysis

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Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

PICK 5: 1,2,8/5/3,4,6/3,9/2,4 = $7.20

EARLY PICK 4: 3,9/2,4/1,2,4,6/1,2,4 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 4,5,6,10/2,7/6,7/1,3,10 = $48

MEET STATS: 172 - 520 / $934.00  BEST BETS: 31 - 49 / $104.60\

SPOT PLAYS: 9 - 48 / $49.20

Best Bet: HANNELORE HANOVER (2nd)

Spot Play: INSPIRATION VIEW (4th)

Race 1

(1) BETTORS UP tracked a slow pace then blasted off cover to win his debut. He can double up here off a similar trip. (2) IDEAL PLAN is a full-sister to three winners including E Street Plan (1:49 4/5 F) and Rockavellian (1:50 4/5 F). She looked good in her June 25 qualifier and is a major contender here at first asking. (8) YARIS BAYAMA is a 1/2-sister to VIP Bayama (13 wins, $172K, 1:51 4/5 S) which is the only other foal of the dam to race. Filion/Laroque are a potent combo and this filly is in with a shot. (5) BROANACH could close late for a piece here at a price.

Race 2

(5) HANNELORE HANOVER comes in off a World Record-tying performance here on North America Cup night and is impossible to bet against but will be 1/9. Take the free square in the Pick 5 and move on. (6) RULES OF THE ROAD raced well but was no match for the choice last time. She likely completes a very chalky exacta here. (4) ROCKIN WITH DEWEY will likely stay in and follow this time and a better result is likely for her. (2) CHARMED LIFE will be passing some of these late for a share.

Race 3

(6) WINDSONG NAPOLEON was at a disadvantage in his debut racing third-over while a snail's pace was being cut. He should benefit from that experience, however, and go forward off that initial start. (4) FACE OF WAR comes in with two solid qualifiers and looks next best. (3) YOGI BAYAMA likely has more to offer than meets the eye on the program and merits inclusion. (1) HES GONE BADDER is related to a local racehorse that hasn't won in 17 starts but has taken many slices. He can share in his debut.

Race 4

(3) INSPIRATION VIEW fell victim to a rival that was airborne at the wire to just miss last time. He is a solid contender here and should be prominent throughout. (8) BAGGAGE CLAIM produced one of the more impressive stretch kicks of the meet to win on June 2nd but now has missed 4 weeks action. You have to include him on multi-race tickets but I couldn't single him considering the gap in action. (2) DAYLIGHT RUSH races tough every week but only has one win to show for it. He should share once again here. (1) KOKANEE SEELSTER gets a big barn change here and is worth inclusion on that factor alone.

Race 5

(4) FLAHERTY has faced much better for several weeks and he should appreciate the class relief here; top call. (2) ARSENIC was part of the pace in a race where there were several lead changes before the stretch and he still wasn't far back; using. (9) BLAISE MM HANOVER was a sharp winner of his 2016 debut but the top two are tougher; minor share predicted. (7) ARCHANGEL THREE is a good one to use on the bottom of tris and supers.

Race 6

(5) JEWELS IN HOCK was an easy winner of a leg of this series in May here and looks best again. (1) ELEGANT SERENITY should get her best trip of the year here in this short field. Don't be surprised by a much more aggressive drive. (2) STORMONT KATE faces easier here and isn't out of this. She can race effectively using several styles. (4) CLASSICAL ANNIE will be part of the pace early and likely stick around for a smaller share.

Race 7

(1) DOCTOR TERROR set some solid fractions last time but tired very late in the mile when under sustained pressure. She could do here off a bit easier trip. (4) BROOKDALE SHADOW should get a more aggressive drive with the class drop here and should be up on or near the pace throughout. (2) BOAT HOUSE ROW was flying late last time but her racing style often leaves her short. (4) SHOW SOME LEG dropped and popped as expected last week now she moves back up and is likely to finish on the fringes.

Race 8

(4) COLLECTIVE WISDOM made two moves to beat a heavy chalk in the first leg of this series while taking a new life's mark. This race should be more competitive but she can double up if provided with a similar trip. (10) TWENTY THREE RED went a big trip vs. a strong winner in the opening leg and she can make some noise here if sent early. (6) SOUTHWIND TANGO couldn't go with an impressive winner late in the mile last week but she fits here and should contend. (5) LAY LADY LAY faces easier and will likely take plenty of action. She can better this prediction if she stays flat.

Race 9

(7) XPERT BAYAMA dug in to hold off a rival that came back to win his next start and he should be tough in here coming off that lifetime-best performance. (2) RED DOG SALOON has a much better shot moving inside here and will likely be a big price. He is an upset possibility. (1) SOLO STORY hits the board every week and should be able to work out a good trip here. (4) IMSPORTY couldn't close into a rapid final 1/4 but should be able to make the tri or super ticket here.

Race 10

(6) LADY SHADOW set a new life's mark while winning the Roses Are Red and she will take beating here if she maintains that form. (7) WITCH DALI was nailed only late by the classy Venus Delight last time and she is the main danger here. (1) SOLAR SISTER couldn't go with the choice last time but she isn't out of this. She may push her way into the pocket early which would make her a win threat. (2) OUR HOT MAJORETTE is one of the best closers in here and should pass a couple late to take a smaller share.

Race 11

(1) CONTINUAL HANOVER was a game winner in his 2016 debut and he should be even better here with that start in the books; top call. (10) DERECHO raced well vs. a very sharp winner last time and shouldn't be dismissed, even from the 10-hole. (3) BIG RICKY tipped off dead cover last week and gamely kicked in to get up on the line. Include this improving gelding here. (4) BIG PLACE is erratic but should get a piece of this if he behaves.

Race 12

(5) ST LADS MOONWALK is one of the best horses in this Grassroots division and looks best in this field based recent performances. (3) SPIRIT SHADOW was part of a pace battle that saw several lead changes last time. He could trip much better here and he is a threat to win this. (1) BAD GAMER continues to take shares and this race should be no different. (4) TO HIS CREDIT should be sharper here and he can take a piece of this. (11) A BETTORS RISK is in fact risky, but, if he stays flat he can contend vs. this group.

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