06/19/2013 5:35PM

Mohawk: Friday 6/21 Analysis


Race 4 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Best Bet (4 - 8 / $12.00): LEAVEUMLADY (13th)

Spot Play: MISTY MOONSTONE (5th)

Race 1

(9) KING RICHARD draws outside, but has only tasted defeat once from four starts and has excellent gate speed. He was only beaten a neck last week in his debut on this oval. (5) ONTARIO SUCCESS is very lightly raced and has been knocking on the door in recent starts. He also comes out of the O'Sullivan barn, which is a plus. (8) OCCULT MASTER might be considered a longshot play in here, but I like the way he raced last week. He went a fairly tough trip and was still around at the finish.

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Race 2

(5) NEFERTITI BLUECHIP draws well and qualified very well. We don't know much about this rookie group this early in the season, but I know this filly was a top two-year-old training down for Darling. (2) PERFORMING ART draws inside, qualified well and Hall has a good reputation with young horses early in the season. (1) MAJOR HANOVER closed in :27 2/5 and gets the rail in here. Legace's barn also has been very good in 2013.

Race 3

(7) KINETIC KING is a coin toss in my opinion. If he behaves, he has a terrific chance to win, but is very capable of making a miscue. I'd play him on top depending on the odds. (8) KENNEL BUDDY has a good record this season and was timed in 1:54 4/5 just three starts ago. He's fresh off a win and likely won't offer a price. (2) PHOTO MASS has a 1-2-0 record in his last three starts and that can't be overlooked. Not to mention, he comes out of the Jamieson barn.

Race 4

(10) SOUTHWIND AMAZON might be considered a longshot, but this will mark his third start and he has consistently dropped time over his previous two starts. He has gate-speed and can overcome post 10. (4) SWEET COLT OF MINE has been knocking on the door and draws well. He shows enough speed and is a threat in here. (1) ISLAND JET draws the rail and won two starts ago in impressive fashion. I'm going to overlook his latest line.

Race 5

(9) MISTY MOONSTONE closed very well last week considering she was ninth at the half. She drops in class and has won at this level not that long ago. She should offer a fair price. (5) SMASHBOX was my top pick last week and failed to find the wire first. She's very playable again for Jamieson/Gillis. (6) THE SUMMER WIND drops in class and is a better horse than she's been showing. She also draws much better compared to her recent starts.

Race 6

(4) JUST HENRY went a credible mile at Georgian Downs and continues to drop time. He doesn't show the best gate-speed, so look for him late in the mile. (2) BAD BOY MATT draws inside and has been racing very consistent in recent weeks. He is very versatile and comes out of O'Sullivan's barn. (1) RUDE BOY finally draws inside and should make the most of it. He recently moved into the Sinclair barn and should get a good trip.

Race 7

(10) RACEY MISS is a perfect one-for-one to start this season and had a very good record last year. It's hard to overlook her. (6) MACH AWAY won three straight prior to last week and returns to the same level. She's capable, but I'd like to see her get a trip. (3) AIR MILES HANOVER draws inside and is very versatile. She doesn't like to win, but is a very good option for the triactor.

Race 8

This is a wide-open race, but (2) F TWENTY TWO shows enough speed to win at this level and usually finishes his miles very well. He'll be looking for his first win of the campaign. (9) A AND GS BADBOY might offer a price, but he raced well last start with a good final time. He's very versatile, but will likely need a trip. (10) SHINRONE is one-for-one this season and Brethour is very good with young horses. He moves onto this circuit, but I think he can handle the transition.

Race 9

(2) BURNING SHORE draws inside and certainly has enough speed to win in this class. He's got a good record this season and likely will be the favourite. (6) GRANTOR HANOVER was assigned post 10 last week and I'm going to overlook that line. He draws better this week and enjoys being put into the race. (9) SANTANNA ONE raced very well last week considering it was his first start of the season. He also comes out of the Gillis barn and gets Jamieson in the bike.

Race 10

(9) PRIMERIDE scored a gate-to-wire victory last week and should be even better this week now that he's on this circuit for a second week. (6) CAN HE GO has been knocking on the door in recent weeks and this class should suit him well. Austin's barn has been very good in 2013. (8) PRESIDENT SYLBERUN shows enough speed and is very versatile. He'll likely offer a price, but I feel he can hit the board.

Race 11

(1) PERTTY MUSIC draws inside and faces a much easier bunch compared to a few weeks ago. She has enough speed and should be able to handle this group. (7) PAN LUIS OBISPO scored the win in her most recent at Western Fair and has had a terrific start to her season so far. (8) MACHAROUNDTHECLOCK qualified well and enjoyed a successful season last year. She may need a start to find her legs, but I'm going to play her.

Race 12

(4) CHOSEN HOMBRE draws inside and is fresh off a win at very high odds. If she can put forth a repeat effort, she's very capable of winning again. (6) TRYS LITTLE PRINCE raced well last start considering it was his first start of the season. He can only improve off that effort. (3) THE REAL ONE has won four times from six starts this season, but will face a tougher group in here. He draws well and gets off the gate very well.

Race 13

(4) LEAVEUMLADY has started off her campaign very well and although she moves up in class, she's very capable. She draws well and continues to improve. (6) SET ME UP has a very good record this season and once again is a top threat at this level. She's been very consistent all season. (9) BETIT TO GETIT has a terrific second this season and comes out of Wallace's barn. She's very versatile and has enough speed.