05/18/2016 2:27PM

Mohawk: Friday 5/20 Analysis

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Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

 

20-CENT PICK 5: 2,6/3,7/1,5/1,3,4,6,8/5,9 = $16

EARLY PICK 4: 1,3,4,6,8/5,9/1,8/2,3,5 = $60

LATE PICK 4: 1,2,5,8/5/2,5,6,8/1,6 = $32

MEET STATS: 88 - 249 / $532.10  BEST BETS: 14 - 24 / $56.30

SPOT PLAYS: 5 - 24 / $32.80

Best Bet: PRINCESS KATIE (9th)

Spot Play: LITTLE MISS SPORTY (5th)

Race 1

(2) WHISTYS PARADISE comes off a win in which she took a new life's mark. She has excelled for Adams/McNair and can take another here. (6) DARKTWISTEDFANTASY goes for Auciello off the claim and can last much longer this time. (8) DE VALERIA ships north with some decent form and can contend here vs. claimers. (1) NINETTE B was third to the choice last week but could get an improved trip here and better this prediction.

Race 2

(3) MERCHANDISER overpowered his opponents last week and will be tough to beat here if he can reproduce a similar effort. (7) MUSCLE HUSTLE is unbeaten to start the year but will likely need to be faster here to topple the choice. (5) HURRICANE HAZEL hung a bit late last time but can still close for a share here. (8) UNITED BI comes off an upset score vs. lesser but may be able to sneak onto the ticket late here using his good closing power.

Race 3

(5) BAGS FOR ALL faces much easier here and is likely to be sent on a speed mission. (1) SILENCE SON shows a :27 2/5 kicker in his qualifier and could be ready to do some damage here. (4) CABERTOSS sprung for a huge upset after shipping in from Ottawa last year; beware. (10) P L HERCULES was a good second to a very sharp winner last week and can be a threat if he can work out a trip from out there.

Race 4

(4) MARQUISE DE SARAH drops to a class similar to where she won four starts back and should be right there vs. these. (3) DOCS HOLLYWOOD also drops out of a race where the pace was too fast and she couldn't keep up. She has a better chance here. (1) DUNCS DIAMOND has been racing well out of town and could trip out here starting from the inside. (9) MISS COCO LUCK was fried trying to keep up to swift splits last time and merits a look here in a race where there isn't much early speed.

Race 5

(5) LITTLE MISS SPORTY has faced better for several starts and should find this group to her liking. (9) NOMATTERWHEN shows a line two back that could make her tough here if she blasts off the gate early and heads for the front. (3) MOREMUNKYBUSINESS is one for her last 53 starts but typically grabs a share and should make the ticket here. (4) SHADYS M THREE is another win-shy type that can pass horses late and take a minor share.

Race 6

(1) AMITYVILLE LINDY couldn't get close last time because the late pace was too strong. He should be flying late vs. these and can score a mild upset. (8) MASS BALANCE had a useful sophomore debut and can go forward off that mile here. (7) WANAKA comes off a strong mile that sealed a stakes series win but now faces males and has missed more than three weeks action. She will likely be overbet here relative to her chances. (6) DONICUS is a pace threat but needs to find more late speed to win this.

Race 7

(2) ARSENIC was one of the better local rookie pacers past season and looks ready to roll here; top call. (3) ASAP HANOVER has come back into good form here as a four-year-old and should be a threat here. (5) GERRIES SPORT was stung first over in swift fractions in the Diplomat Final and merits Pick 4 inclusion here in a race where the fractions should be more even. (10) NOCTURNAL BLUE CHIP brings a swift qualifying win into this seasonal debut but will likely need one, especially starting from out there.

Race 8

(2) MAPLELEA is more effective making one late charge rather than grinding first-over. A change in strategy could lead to a win here. (5) POP GOES THEWEASEL continues to race consistently and is a threat from close range here. (10) HOPE FOR PADDY swept past the field late last week but was aided by insane early fractions. She is a contender, but needs some luck to beat them all. (8) MOONLIT DANCE was used up in the first 1/2 yet still was only beaten 1 1/2 lengths last week. She can threaten for the top prize with a more sensible steer.

Race 9

(5) PRINCESS KATIE powered her way to a new life's mark last week now gets to drop from non-winners of four to non-winners of three because she comes in under the earnings threshold. It's hard to envision her getting beat here. (4) TWIN B SWEETHEART continues to race well for smaller shares and that is likely to continue here. (7) HOT CHICA BOOMBA ships in from Florida with some decent form and can take a share here. (9) KATIES BEACH has raced well for Hall-of-Famer Condren and she should close late and make the Super or Tri here.

Race 10

(8) INTENDED STYLE went a solid first up trip in his first start for Moreau but the winner was simply too good that night. He should be tough in here. (6) AMBLE OVER HANOVER took a new season's mark last week when claimed and he is the main threat to the choice here. (5) LISVINNIE has been in solid form at this meet and Hudon suits him well. He can close late for a share here. (2) VELOCITY HEADLIGHT goes first off the claim here and should be a threat. Jamieson may look to trip this gelding out in the pocket.

Race 11

(1) GREYSTONE LADYLIKE faces easier from a better post and should be a force throughout here. (6) RIDE AWAY SHARK also drops and will likely be looking for the top or the pocket early here. She is the main danger. (2) MISCHIEVIOUSGIRLS should get a better start here moving inside and can close late for a share. (3) JUSTABIT MEAN was caught only late last time and her improving form should be respected.

Race 12

(1) ST LADS SMOKIN HOT was beat by an improving filly last week now she gets back to a 7-day cycle and should be tough here starting from the inside. (6) TOP ROYAL had a strong rookie campaign and should be a threat if she is ready off that one London qualifier. (2) MATTJESTIC TEMPO moves inside and could wake up with a much better effort vs. these. (8) HEX always makes a good appearance on the track and can better this placing if sent for position near the front early. (5) MISS BABE DELIGHT is an interesting entrant that had some big wins in Quebec last year.

[DRF HARNESS LIVE: Real-time insights from the DRF Harness team this Saturday at 7:00 p.m.]