05/23/2014 3:39PM

Mike Welsch's Monday Rainbow Pick Six analysis


Race 5

1. Are We Not Men

2. Skip’s World

3. Simon Bar Sinister

The opening leg of the Rainbow Pick Six is no easy pickings, with any number of contenders, although the abundance of speed in the lineup should give closers the edge. ARE WE NOT MEN made a solid but premature move when trying to go nine furlongs debuting here in March, then could not duplicate the effort when trying dirt five weeks later. Back to what figures to be his favorite surface, being a kin to Are You Kidding Me. SKIP’S WORLD is a must-use in the Rainbow Six, having held his own on several occasions with this same kind. Returns to the grass and should trip out nicely behind all the speed in this lineup. SIMON BAR SINISTER has trained extremely well since moving under the Wolfson shed and, by War Front, should relish the move from dirt to grass, but one of several speed types in here, along with Mon Petit Pote, Carson’s Ten, and perhaps Whats Up Big Guy. Fesenfeld is another late-running sort who turned in a nice effort behind well-meant first-time starter Waiting for Santa when returning from an 11-month hiatus this spring at Tampa. Whats Up Big Guy has burned a ton of chalk in three career starts but is out of the same family as turfers Point Roll and East of Danzig.


Race 6

1. Miss Away

2. Quinnkat

3. One Look

MISS AWAY turned in a creditable effort in her debut, finishing with some interest despite losing a little ground into the stretch, and is eligible to improve with a race under her belt. May offer value in a very wide-open contest. QUINNKAT is another who figures to be a little bit of a price, having been idle since early March. Kept the best company of this bunch earlier in the year while going a mile and longer and should appreciate the turnback in distance. Worked a sharp half-mile for this last week. ONE LOOK and Lady Anita are a couple of interesting-looking first-timers who brought good money at the sales. The former showed sharp speed from the gate May 3, did not break real cleanly when back to the barrier for her final prep 11 days later. The latter was best of a set of three from the gate May 10 but with a very limited work tab of late. Pekinesa is the logical choice off a series of second-place efforts at the distance and coming off arguably her best yet; hard to leave out of Rainbow Six equation. Sophia’s Pride better than her debut looks on paper, might be worth tossing in at big balloons. Distinctive Lady also an improving sort but hard to tell if her recent efforts flattered by a wet track.


Race 7

1. Joes Blazing Aaron

2. Alley Oop Oop

3. Philly Ace

JOES BLAZING AARON remains winless in quite some time but likely facing his weakest opposition during that long span. Has handled this course and distance well in the past, might not look back if able to clear off and relax on a loose lead. ALLEY OOP OOP another who has not visited the winner’s circle in some time while tackling better throughout that period. May prove the best alternative to the likely favorite. PHILLY ACE in new hands since his last but another getting ample class relief after chasing home the likes of Hey Leroy and Bad Debt earlier this month. Must overcome tough post.


Race 8

1. Javamine

2. Karla and Me

3. Hot Cotton

JAVAMINE is the only two-time winner in this lineup, having beaten this same kind easily two back. Hard to look past if shaking loose early to control things on front end while returning to this level. KARLA AND ME gets ample class relief after being overmatched when making first start off the claim for high-percentage barn. Switches to veteran pilot, figures to prompt issue throughout, might pick up the pieces if top one not at her best today. HOT COTTON hard to ignore in her present form.


Race 9

1. Start Up

2. Cage Fighter

3. Balthazar

START UP exits a career-best effort when wearing down a couple of hard-knocking rivals to win second off the claim and obviously much improved at the present time. Should catch an honest pace in this spot. Can be along once again if able to repeat effort, overcome tough outside post. CAGE FIGHTER strictly the one to beat, having rallied to a popular victory over solid $50,000 starter lineup March 30, although perhaps a bit of a question mark, having been idle ever since and with only a couple of works since that victory. BALTHAZAR showed unexpected speed coming off the layoff, paid the price when trying similarly conditioned opposition in his 4-year-old bow. Has changed hands since that outing; expect to see him taken back, running late in this spot.


Race 10

1. Tohaveandtohold

2. Kimberly Is That U

3. Sofialeonor

TOHAVEANDTOHOLD ran creditably, albeit in a pretty slow race, when finishing third debuting over Keeneland Polytrack after hopping at the break, fanning extremely wide turning for home, and changing leads late while lugging in some trying to rally through the stretch. Bred well enough to relish the switch to grass. Can be along against weak bunch in wide-open finale to the Rainbow Six. KIMBERLY IS THAT U and SOFIALEONOR drop to even weaker level today than when chasing home class droppers Lady Joyful and Aoleon on April 25. Former turned in creditable effort stretching around two turns for the first time but, like several other live horses on this card, must overcome far-outside post on grass.

whyme More than 1 year ago
Speaking of punching "all the buttons"...why doesn't Twinspires have an ALL on the pick board????
whyme More than 1 year ago
MIKE.....why would you waste all this time on a 20 cent pick 6 for $50,000.
Ray Sousa More than 1 year ago
the most analyzed $3000 pool of all time..i felt this thing would be taken down today or yesterday.so it happened today.so tomorrow the pool is not going to be at all significant.
kevin r More than 1 year ago
Irrelevant. Someone hit the pool today. Joke that the twinspires players pool didn't hit it. Had $200K to play with and left off a 7-2 shot in the 3d leg. I've been watching their picks for the entire year; don't see how they call themselves experts.
whyme More than 1 year ago
Kevin...where can you see the picks if not a member....I thought I tried that once and was unsuccessful...man, if they did leave off that 7/2....we all hate them don't we....I was 5 of 6 on Sat with a $4.80 ticket...had a PLACE in the race I missed...it paid like $2,100....
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
The drf ceo letter of apoligy was pt barnum at its core. Apologizing and giving 3 days of pp's . He can sucker in more bettors with free pp's. Knowing the race results will be fixed. Dear mr drf Ceo... You are a fool.
robert w.vaughan More than 1 year ago
how stupid a comment is that! No wonder your Anonymous! The fool is you!
Andrew More than 1 year ago
This analyst and myself must use the same handicapping methods as my horses are almost identical
Jack Armstead More than 1 year ago
Oh... on the Gulfstream Park Pick 6, I am whittling my ticket down for the past two hours. Unfortunately, these are really full fields where I/you/we have to "take a stand" in at least two races... with no Singles !!!!!!!! If this were a $2.00 bet, I'd have to pass because even if I hit 5 of 6 (which I don't believe they pay on) I would probably only cover the ticket costs plus a few hundred over (maybe). I'm at $672.00 right now.
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
it is not the right time to play it,wait for the closing date of gulfstream park.
Ian GW More than 1 year ago
Its a mandatory pay out?
Jack Armstead More than 1 year ago
Thanks Mike... your observations and insight has made me more money than any public handicapper; especially Breeders Cup Day/s. It appears that everyone at DRF is "all hands on deck" for the past several days. People have complained about DRF+ and I am one of the few, other than this poster "Elaine," who seems to understand the infrastructure and the difficultly of delivering content to millions of people 24x7x365. People complained about having to pay for "services" from DRF and this was the reason. The letter from the Main DRF leader was not really even detailed to the point of the real rigors of handling things like (from easy to difficult) a.) getting a Form downloaded; b.) Stakes Race Replays; c.) My Stable; d.) Ticket Maker; e.) TM's delivery to the betting integration with their partner; f.) the Accounting for all and every one of us. There are probably ten other things that fit in between and that's my point. I can tell from the letter that DRF had to bite down hard on this one and make a commitment to rebuild their entire process and implementation. I applaud DRF for having the guts to admit that their whole process got I.T. Colic and it was scary even for those familiar with their jobs. Like horses, even companies can break down unexpectedly and we must measure their character as to how they make amends to their customers (which they did by re-building "Download the Form" first... and then gave it away for free during repairs and; until they're complete) and; how they keep the commitment to make the internal improvements to make our lives and experience better. For this, I am totally confident that this 100+ year old Institution will keep their promise to us all because that's what GREAT companies do. Like a horse race, we must judge DRF on its past "Class" versus any other factor. I want to personally thank all the DRF people and staff and the 3rd party I.T. people who have and are still working overtime to give us another 100+ years of great service. May all of you have a great Memorial Day weekend.
TEDK215 More than 1 year ago
are you a lawyer sir?
Jack H More than 1 year ago
no excuse. amazon.com can handle 1 million plus concurrent transactions. DRF does every cheap. Look at the website "new" design. It is 3 to 5 years behind what cutting edge websites look like. Message to DRF management....Never update technology during a triple crown run. Retailers for example lock all technology swaps down from Nov 1st thru January.
jim lefferts More than 1 year ago
"I am one of the few, other than this poster "Elaine," who seems to understand the infrastructure." Ha! Yes, you really seem to be on top of things.
[removed] More than 1 year ago
This comment has been deleted
Lawrence MacSelwiney More than 1 year ago
I have no money in the pool, but will be investing a couple hundred. Good luck!
MR More than 1 year ago
Greg thanks. Could you also let us know how long the planet is going to hold out and would you please tip the searchers off that are looking for that plane in Indonesia.
Fatthawk More than 1 year ago
I say there will be only 25 to 50 winners with payoff of 200k to 400k.
Chas Serednesky More than 1 year ago
I haven't seen anything written about This past weekend's pick 6 where there was a scratch of the #1 horse in the last race and subsequently there was an " UNSCRATCH" and. The #1 horse won the race. How can that be?
Rich Hanson More than 1 year ago
I would like to see something on that myself - I had the 1 picked 1st, but when I bet my pick 6 it was scratched - it cost me the pick6 and the pick 5. How can they UNSCRATCH a Horse