05/23/2014 2:39PM

Mike Welsch's Monday Rainbow Pick Six analysis


Race 5

1. Are We Not Men

2. Skip’s World

3. Simon Bar Sinister

The opening leg of the Rainbow Pick Six is no easy pickings, with any number of contenders, although the abundance of speed in the lineup should give closers the edge. ARE WE NOT MEN made a solid but premature move when trying to go nine furlongs debuting here in March, then could not duplicate the effort when trying dirt five weeks later. Back to what figures to be his favorite surface, being a kin to Are You Kidding Me. SKIP’S WORLD is a must-use in the Rainbow Six, having held his own on several occasions with this same kind. Returns to the grass and should trip out nicely behind all the speed in this lineup. SIMON BAR SINISTER has trained extremely well since moving under the Wolfson shed and, by War Front, should relish the move from dirt to grass, but one of several speed types in here, along with Mon Petit Pote, Carson’s Ten, and perhaps Whats Up Big Guy. Fesenfeld is another late-running sort who turned in a nice effort behind well-meant first-time starter Waiting for Santa when returning from an 11-month hiatus this spring at Tampa. Whats Up Big Guy has burned a ton of chalk in three career starts but is out of the same family as turfers Point Roll and East of Danzig.


Race 6

1. Miss Away

2. Quinnkat

3. One Look

MISS AWAY turned in a creditable effort in her debut, finishing with some interest despite losing a little ground into the stretch, and is eligible to improve with a race under her belt. May offer value in a very wide-open contest. QUINNKAT is another who figures to be a little bit of a price, having been idle since early March. Kept the best company of this bunch earlier in the year while going a mile and longer and should appreciate the turnback in distance. Worked a sharp half-mile for this last week. ONE LOOK and Lady Anita are a couple of interesting-looking first-timers who brought good money at the sales. The former showed sharp speed from the gate May 3, did not break real cleanly when back to the barrier for her final prep 11 days later. The latter was best of a set of three from the gate May 10 but with a very limited work tab of late. Pekinesa is the logical choice off a series of second-place efforts at the distance and coming off arguably her best yet; hard to leave out of Rainbow Six equation. Sophia’s Pride better than her debut looks on paper, might be worth tossing in at big balloons. Distinctive Lady also an improving sort but hard to tell if her recent efforts flattered by a wet track.


Race 7

1. Joes Blazing Aaron

2. Alley Oop Oop

3. Philly Ace

JOES BLAZING AARON remains winless in quite some time but likely facing his weakest opposition during that long span. Has handled this course and distance well in the past, might not look back if able to clear off and relax on a loose lead. ALLEY OOP OOP another who has not visited the winner’s circle in some time while tackling better throughout that period. May prove the best alternative to the likely favorite. PHILLY ACE in new hands since his last but another getting ample class relief after chasing home the likes of Hey Leroy and Bad Debt earlier this month. Must overcome tough post.


Race 8

1. Javamine

2. Karla and Me

3. Hot Cotton

JAVAMINE is the only two-time winner in this lineup, having beaten this same kind easily two back. Hard to look past if shaking loose early to control things on front end while returning to this level. KARLA AND ME gets ample class relief after being overmatched when making first start off the claim for high-percentage barn. Switches to veteran pilot, figures to prompt issue throughout, might pick up the pieces if top one not at her best today. HOT COTTON hard to ignore in her present form.


Race 9

1. Start Up

2. Cage Fighter

3. Balthazar

START UP exits a career-best effort when wearing down a couple of hard-knocking rivals to win second off the claim and obviously much improved at the present time. Should catch an honest pace in this spot. Can be along once again if able to repeat effort, overcome tough outside post. CAGE FIGHTER strictly the one to beat, having rallied to a popular victory over solid $50,000 starter lineup March 30, although perhaps a bit of a question mark, having been idle ever since and with only a couple of works since that victory. BALTHAZAR showed unexpected speed coming off the layoff, paid the price when trying similarly conditioned opposition in his 4-year-old bow. Has changed hands since that outing; expect to see him taken back, running late in this spot.


Race 10

1. Tohaveandtohold

2. Kimberly Is That U

3. Sofialeonor

TOHAVEANDTOHOLD ran creditably, albeit in a pretty slow race, when finishing third debuting over Keeneland Polytrack after hopping at the break, fanning extremely wide turning for home, and changing leads late while lugging in some trying to rally through the stretch. Bred well enough to relish the switch to grass. Can be along against weak bunch in wide-open finale to the Rainbow Six. KIMBERLY IS THAT U and SOFIALEONOR drop to even weaker level today than when chasing home class droppers Lady Joyful and Aoleon on April 25. Former turned in creditable effort stretching around two turns for the first time but, like several other live horses on this card, must overcome far-outside post on grass.