07/25/2013 9:44AM

Meadows: $15,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Analysis for Saturday 7/27


$15,000 Guaranteed Late Pick Four Analysis 

Race 9 - Arden Downs 2yo Filly Pace

(1A) FIYONCE appears to be capable of pacing a step faster than this group right now. Ron Burke-trained filly is fast off the gate and should be sitting on or near the lead.

(4) SISTER STROLL had her only miscue in four starts last time and finished that race with broken equipment. Some would view this driver change as a negative, but Chris Page has driven her before and won.

(2) CINAMONY seems to be a filly with one strong move in her tank. If Morrill can set her up in a good spot, watch out!

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Race 10 - Arden Downs 2yo Colt & Gelding Pace

(3) A OK HANOVER has the desirable ability to start and stop. He left in 26 4/5 last time, backed the pace down to a 30 1/5 second quarter and accelerated nicely in the stretch with a 27 3/5 final quarter. That shows nice maturity for a 2-year-old.

(4) AVALANCHE HANOVER has yet to step up with a big mile but does have some minor excuses in his initial career starts. Somebeachsomewhere-sired colt faces an easier bunch this week.

Race 11 - Arden Downs 2yo Filly Pace

(1) UPFRONT BAD GIRL is one of a few in here dropping out of PASS races for this easier spot (in fact my top three picks are making the same class drop). This filly has treaded water nicely against tougher and looks primed for a big mile.

(4) TALKATIVE has early speed and has never been worse than second in three lifetime starts. She is the deserving favorite, but I see her as somewhat vulnerable if another good foe works out a better trip.

(6) THAT WOMAN HANOVER could be considered a reach by some, but she is one of the faster fillies off the gate and gets away from an undefeated Gallie Bythe Beach.

(9) LUCYS PEARL has won two straight and now takes on some tougher foes; mixed feelings.

(8) VERY LOUDLY was a good second in Sire Stakes company last time and seems very capable of an upset with the right trip.

Race 12 - $450,000 Adios Final

(4) SUNFIRE BLUE CHIP took plenty of air early and held on to win his Adios elimination last week. That was his first start in three weeks and he should only improve in the final. Jimmy Takter trainee has good early zip and should be sitting a sweet trip.

(1) LONEWOLF CURRIER got over his sickness and went a big elimination mile. Obviously he is a must-use in your pick four now, but his mile last week was probably close to his best effort and others have more room to improve.

(7) VEGAS VACATION simply took the easy route into the final; grinding uncovered and getting third without any trouble. My guess is you will see a much better effort from this guy on Saturday.

.50-cent pick four tickets

Full Ticket: 1,2,4 / 3,4 / 1,4,6,8,9 / 1,4,7 = $45

Budget Play: 1,4 / 3,4 / 1,4,6 / 4 = $6

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