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Meadowlands: Saturday 8/2 Analysis
Race 1 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 3 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 7 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
Race 9 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool
Race 12 - $100,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool
MEET STATS: 102 - 326 / $574.00 BEST BETS: 16 - 25 / $57.80
Best Bet: LOCK DOWN LINDY (6th)
Spot Play: UNCLE LASSE (7th)
(7) BEE A MAGICIAN came up short last week but I’m not holding it against her. I give this 4-year-old the slight nod over (3) CLASSIC MARTINE, who was very sharp in victory last time and seems unlikely to go down without a fight. (6) MA CHERE HALL didn’t fire last time but her prior race was good. She can upset if on her game.
(6) WAKE UP PETER seems to be in the perfect spot this week. He can leave and probably end up sitting second or sit back and take advantage of a possible hot pace. (8) ALLSTAR LEGEND reunites with Gingras and seems likely to be flying off the gate. Often enough speed does very well early in these afternoon cards. (3) DOVUTO HANOVER picked up some confidence versus lesser company. He can handle the class rise. (9) ODDS ON EQUULEUS is sharp but stuck outside.
(3) GETTINGREADYTOROLL is clearly the most talented filly in this race. She is also her own worst enemy. If Gingras keeps her pacing, she wins. (2) ACT NOW made some enemies when she hung a bit in the Mistletoe Shalee. She is good enough to win on her best day. (7) BLIXTRA has picked up her game lately and would hardly be a surprise.
(2) WESTERN VINTAGE has been on the sidelines since June trying to get his act together. His last qualifier was sharp and he should be able to take this race. (1) DOO WOP HANOVER has missed a few weeks but that shouldn’t be too much of a problem. Steve Elliott trainee is the main danger. (6) DANCIN HILL has reportedly been gearing for this race. He has a chance if on his game.
(6) BETTOR’S EDGE is not the best horse in this race but is highly likely to wind up with a winning trip. He can leave the gate and should sit no worse than second at his usual high price. (7) SWEET LOU has been nothing short of spectacular this year. I’m only picking against him because he is beatable and will be 3-5. (3) THINKING OUT LOUD is definitely sitting on a big race and I think most handicappers would agree. Can he finally get the cover trip he needs? (8) CAPTAINTREACHEROUS is a high-quality horse that has raced well every week. I don’t see how he gets a winning trip, but I’d like to see him finally break out.
(3) LOCK DOWN LINDY has been on my radar for weeks. Lucky Chucky filly came a last half in 55 3/5 in her elimination and has endless potential. I really like her chances of winning at a decent price. (5) MISSION BRIEF has proven that she is the fastest filly in this race to date. I do worry that with the big crowd she might act up behind the gate. (6) GATKA HANOVER had a perfect record before she met my top pick; using underneath only. (7) LOVE ME MADLY & (8) LIVININTHEFASTLANE look like logical exotic players.
(7) UNCLE LASSE switched to Ron Pierce in the bike last week and rallied nicely to easily qualify for the final. With the big bucks on the line, I’ll be surprised if this son of Donato Hanover isn’t forwardly placed. (5) GUESS WHOS BACK looked super winning from the back on July 12. Sears should be able to get him in prime position. (1) CENTURION ATM blew away the competition last week but will have to bring even more to the track this time around; very playable. (2) CANEPA HANOVER is another talented youngster from the Jimmy Takter barn. I wouldn’t even think about leaving him off my tickets.
(5) DEJATIERO switched to David Miller in the bike last time and dropped some time down to 1:54 2/5. I like what I’ve seen from him in three starts and think there could be more to come. (4) STRETCH CUNNINGHAM has missed a lot of time lately. Perhaps the driver change to Tim Tetrick is a sign that he is ready to roll. (9) SCACCO MATTO stayed flat with hobbles added and Pierce is back in the bike; maybe. (1) AMPED UP HANOVER has raced reasonably well but just doesn’t excite me. (2) SOUTHWIND POSEIDON is capable if he minds his manners.
(5) OUTBURST finally seems to be getting on track after a slow start to the season. It is hard to consider him a lock, but it is equally as difficult to make a strong case for a number of these. (3) WELL BUILT finally gets away from the big boys of the division. The driver change to Tetrick could work miracles. (10) WHEELSANDTHELEGMAN has plenty of early speed and a nearly flawless record. (4) HILLUSTRIOUS was good a month ago but has fallen on hard times.
(9) MASTER OF LAW has been awesome since moving into the Takter barn. The post presents some issues, but I can’t see picking against him. (1) SOUTHWIND PEPINO ships in from Scioto in good form and adds Campbell. (2) SWEET JUSTICE & (3) D’ORSAY are both very capable. Either could win with the right trip.
(1) SEBASTIAN K has been awesome all year and figures to sit a good trip either first or second. My only concern is the weather forecast, as his Achilles Heel is rain and the forecast is currently for a 40% chance of the wet stuff. (8) INTIMIDATE finally appears to have regained the form that made him a Breeders Crown winner. If he would have drawn inside, I would have used him on top; respect. (4) ARCHANGEL came up with a big mile in his elimination. He’ll need every bit of that same GO this week. (5) UNCLE PETER raced pretty well in his first start back from Sweden. Sometimes it takes a while to re-acclimate.
(7) LIFETIME PURSUIT has proven herself capable of going with the best and quite frankly was driven somewhat conservatively in last week's prep. She won't be able to overcome a tough trip but will get the job done at a price if things go her way. (1) DESIGNED TO BE comes off consecutive races where she has been unable to show her true talents due to traffic issues. Has she proven to be the fastest this year? Yes. But that was only one big mile. At 7-5, I couldn't back her as a win play. (11) SHAKE IT CERRY has beaten most of these in her last two starts, but everything has gone her way. While this race appears like it will set up nicely for her, I question whether she has taken a step forward as a 3-year-old. Can she trot in 51 and change? (4) HARLEY MOMMA has only one race under her belt since May, but it was a good prep effort. While it is hard to say if she can trot with these at full speed, she hails from a strong trotting barn and seems worth a flyer.
Race 13 - Hambletonian
(10) FATHER PATRICK is the best of the 11 horses lining up behind the gate for this trotting classic. Does that mean sure victory? Well, the task would have been easier with an inside post or without the presence of some quick early speed players in mid-pack posts. In these eyes, he is the only entrant capable of trotting a 1:50 mile and I have to believe being five lengths the best will make up for a poor trip. (4) DATSYUK has early speed plus an impeccable in-the-money record. Not sure I could back him on top, but he might be my key exacta play. (7) TRIXTON could be the one horse that has a legitimate chance of upsetting Father Patrick. Originally I thought his only chance was by trying to bottom out the field, but now it seems driver/trainer Jimmy Takter should sit back and hope for a crazy-fast pace. It really could happen. (5) NUNCIO is probably the wildcard of this group. I’m not sure he is as good as my top choice, but I am sure driver John Campbell has been waiting for this race all year. (1) RESOLVE raced well against Nuncio last time and is certainly eligible to improve in just his second start for this barn.
(2) DROP THE BALL has clearly found the form that has helped her earn almost $1.4 million. This mare is capable of winning from on or off the pace and the inside post should give her plenty of options. (1) ROCKLAMATION wouldn't have been on anyone's radar to win this race a month ago, but time off between starts seems to have perked her back up; clear threat. (5) ANNDROVETTE has me torn in this spot. Her record here hasn't been ideal and her form this year has been spotty. That said, I could easily see her getting a quick lead and working out a perfect trip. (4) SHEBESTINGIN has taken enough of my money. Could she win? Yes. Am I a big believer? No.
(1) NATIONAL DEBT hasn't quite lived up to the promise many expected earlier in the year. His last race was solid and he is certainly fast enough to win. (7) URGENT ACTION is a fast horse getting a major driver change to Tim Tetrick. (4) ULTIMATE BEACHBOY gets class relief for top connections. (2) IAM BONASERA is certainly in a tough spot but is by no means too slow to go with this group; usable longshot.