07/13/2017 3:10PM

Meadowlands: Saturday 7/15 Analysis



Spot Play: IDYLLIC BEACH (5th)

Race 3 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 5 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 9 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 92 - 217 / $453.10 (+$19.10)

BEST BETS: 13 - 18 / $42.20 (+$6.20)

Race 1

(1) ARIANA G couldn’t quite take care of business versus the boys from post eight at Pocono in the Earl Beal final; no shame there. While there are some nice fillies in this field, I think she is just too fast for this group. (5) MAGIC PRESTO has plenty of talent and gets Brian Sears back in the bike. If she proves she can stay with Ariana G tonight, I wouldn’t be shocked to see her win the Hambletonian Oaks. (3) ICE ATTRACTION has good early speed and has proven very capable of chasing in a fast mile; wish McCarthy was driving. (2) DREAM BABY DREAM came up with a lifetime best mile last week and is getting better each day.

Race 2

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(2) HANNELORE HANOVER qualified back well enough to think the four week gap in pari-mutuel action won’t be an issue. She should take care of business as the odds-on choice. (3) CAPRICE HILL is capable of staying close with the top one when on her game, but her performances so far haven’t been anything to write home about. (1) SWEET THING rallied well for second behind Walner last week and seems as good as any of the rest.

Race 3

(8) WALNER has looked absolutely spectacular in each of his last three charted lines. He would have to take a huge step backwards or one of his foes would have to jump forward for this to be a close race. (5) SORTIE broke in the Beal but was a solid second the prior week. There is talent here and I’m hoping he’s ready to show it tonight so I can hit a decent exacta. (7) DEVIOUS MAN has won back-to-back stakes with the Beal and the Empire Breeders Classic. There is no doubt he’ll be a clear second choice here, but he’s simply not a horse I want to back at lower odds. (1) BILL’S MAN is another horse with pure speed that’s had issues getting his act together. He is capable of a big mile.

Race 4

(7) THAT’S ALL MONI sprinted by the field like they were standing still in her most recent start. I’m giving her the nod, but she is no lock so don’t accept too short a price. (5) GLITZEY GAL reeled off a lifetime best 1:51 2/5 eye-opening mile last Friday. If she can repeat that mile, they will likely be racing for second. (4) FEED YOUR HEAD hasn’t been very good on paper, though I think those lines are a bit deceptive. She hasn’t been that bad. (6) CHECKMATE TIME has ability if she stays trotting. It is worth noting that Zeron is back in the bike and he drove her to a pair of wins last year.

Race 5

(3) IDYLLIC BEACH was done in by a bad post and a track that wasn’t playing kindly to early speed in the Lynch final. Regardless of whether she shows early speed here, the trip won’t be worse and the price should be right. (6) AGENT Q has stepped to the head of the class in this division, but I’m not ready to bet her at 3-5. (2) BRAZUCA comes off another solid effort last time. Is she fast enough to beat the top pair? (7) SOMEOMENSOMEWHERE finally seems to be moving in the right direction. That said, I’m inclined to give her one more race before I jump on board.

Race 6

(4) PASITHEA FACE S qualified willingly in her North American debut and trainer Jimmy Takter has spoken highly of her. Five-year-old did some good work in Sweden and may actually be this good. (2) BROADWAY DONNA tried to rally from last versus the boys in the Graduate, which clearly wasn’t going to work. I expect she’ll be more aggressive now in against her contemporaries. (6) EMOTICON HANOVER has the early speed to gain position and last for a good check.

Race 7

(6) OCEAN COLONY goes from the North America Cup to a NW $11,500 and squeezes into the race under the NW5 also eligible condition. One has to think he’ll wake up in a big way. (3) MAXDADDY BLUE CHIP gets Tetrick this week after he opted for race winner Wakizashi Hanover last time. This guy has some go and shouldn’t be overlooked. (9) JACKSRLUCKYTOO finally broke through with Tetrick at the helm. He jumps ship but perhaps the little confidence builder was all this guy needed to get on a roll. (7) IN THE ARSENAL seems like a shell of the horse that earned $1,000,000 in his career. That said, his second start off the bench was better than the first.

Race 8

(3) MARION MARAUDER was superb in winning the Graduate final last Saturday and faces a very familiar bunch in here. Anything close to a repeat performance this week should result in a win. (8) TROLLEY was used hard and paid the price versus the top choice last time. He is fast enough to take on the winner with the right trip. (2) TACO TUESDAY is back in the Sholty barn where he has done very good work. (5) WARRAWEE ROO shipped down from Canada with a good effort last time.

Race 9

After spending quite some time thinking about potential pace scenarios, the bottom line is that (4) HUNTSVILLE comes out ahead in my mind about 65% of the time, which makes his likely 3/5 off odds acceptable. I expect driver Tim Tetrick to be very aggressive here, make the lead not much after the quarter and try to take the field down the road, similar to his win with Captaintreacherous in 2013. (6) MISO FAST should have plenty of options from this post. Driver Matt Kakaley could leave hard and try to secure good position behind the favorite or potentially follow live cover if fellow contender (5) DOWNBYTHESEASIDE races from off the pace. I see him as the best longshot play in the field. Downbytheseaside caught some tough luck in the NA Cup and Hempt. After a while you stop blaming luck (trips) and start looking at the horse. I’m using him on my pick four tickets but I’m hesitant. (7) FILIBUSTER HANOVER showed plenty of late pace after saving ground in the Pace elimination. If Gingras can work out a clean trip I’d expect to see this guy in the exotics somewhere.

Race 10

If you are looking for value this race is the best option on the card. Any of the 12 horses could conceivably win the race and there is no doubt trip will play a factor in this bulky field. That said, I’m going to the morning line favorite (12) MEL MARA. Why? Because I think he is the best horse in the race and we should be able to get 3-1 or so. I’m hoping the second-tier starting spot will actually help him get the lead a bit later in the mile this week. (6) ROCK N’ ROLL WORLD never really got ‘raced’ in his two Pocono starts with Brian Sears in the bike. In a wide open field, I’m hoping he puts this guy into play. (2) ALL BETS OFF seems as sharp as he’s been in his career. Any reasonable trip could find him in the winner’s circle. (5) BOSTON RED ROCKS owns a handful of second-place finishes this year. He is going to get over the top eventually. (9) DEALT A WINNER had no chance last time and now we get a new driver as Miller opted for #1. Sometimes a different set of hands makes a big difference.

Race 11

(1) PURE COUNTRY qualified with a purpose as she really hasn’t seen much ‘action’ in her races this year. If she is on her game, there is no reason why she can’t best the favorite. (4) NIKE FRANCO N seems to be inching closer to a win versus likely heavy chalk (10) LADY SHADOW and I think you have to roll the dice against her if you want to get a good payday in this pick four. Cold Lady Shadow roll down the road to remain perfect in six starts this year? Yes. But I don’t see her as worth 3-5 here. (3) CALL ME QUEEN BE missed a week due to sickness and was driven conservatively. I expect she’ll be back near the front and be a part of the exotics.

Race 12

(1) RUBIO looked like a winner (or at worse a good second) two starts back before the break and was cruising along when he jumped again last time at Pocono. I know the talent is there and I’m hoping the switch to the big track will cure any issues. (4) LONG TOM could be the heavy favorite here after his runner-up finish in the Beal. I don’t like the price but respect his chances. (5) WHAT THE HILL was urged home in his latest qualifier which tells me they are trying to sharpen him up for these stakes races. I can see him winning.

Race 13

(1) SAMS TRIPLE CROWN can’t seem to buy a clean trip. Tonight he draws inside and should offer some value with others dropping out of stakes company. (2) DUDE’S THE MAN raced ok in the Franklin. This is a huge drop in class if he can find his lost form. (6) MR VARSITY looked great to start the year but he got caught in a quick mile two starts back and couldn’t handle the Meadowlands Pace foes afterward. This looks like a decent spot. (5) ODDS ON DELRAY has speed and should last for a minor award, at least.

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