11/27/2013 4:38PM

Meadowlands: Saturday 11/30 Analysis


Race 1 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 5 - 13 / $43.40     BEST BETS: 0 - 1 / $0.00

Best Bet: SHAKE IT CERRY (2nd)

Spot Play: MARKET SHARE (6th)

Race 1

It is hard to figure out which of these horses will step up. My best guess is that (7) SIR MELOS Z TAM should enjoy the switch back to the bigger track and might wake up with the more aggressive Allard in the bike. (4) ON THE RADAR throws in some clunkers but also has good early speed and can go with these. (8) BOLERO ANDREW looks like a player on paper and knows the way to the Big M winner’s circle.

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Race 2 – Goldsmith Maid Final

(5) SHAKE IT CERRY has no excuse not to destroy this field at 1-5 or lower odds. (6) SCREAM AND SHOUT can wait near the back and trot by the rest to complete a $7 exacta. (2) SCULLY SAS has put in some decent effort at times.

Race 3 – Nadia Lobell

(4) SHEBESTINGIN is too fast for this group if she brings anything close to her best game. She is not unbeatable, but I’m not sure I could play any others on top. (3) AUNT CAROLINE raced well for second last week and has shown the ability to stay with some of the better 3yo fillies; price chance in exotics. (7) CHARISMA HANOVER has now won six straight but didn’t look all that great while drifting a bit last time; dangerous, though. (6) SOMEWHEROVRARAINBOW changes barns and could show more.

Race 4 – Valley Victory Final

(5) MUSCLE NETWORK comes with some interesting angles. The colt moves into the Jonas Czernyson barn and he knows how to get the most out of trotters. I also like seeing him back on a bigger track. He can upset (8) NUNCIO, who has been a step faster than this field but doesn’t seem like the lock that his likely 3-5 off price would have you believe. (3) E L TITAN showed us that he has ability in Lexington. His biggest question mark is the five weeks of off time. (6) ODDS ON AMETHYST is in a new barn now. (2) SOUTHWIND SPIRIT needs to show me more before I’d back him in a spot like this.

Race 5

(9) ROCKIN AMADEUS raced well in defeat last week and now gets to start inside that one tonight. I’d expect we’ll see speed and another solid effort. (6) WINDSONG JACK qualified nicely behind Captaintreacherous for Burke; dangerous. (3) DULL ROAR rallied from off the pace into the wind last week and seems like a new horse since adding Lasix.

Race 6 – TVG Free For All Final

(7) MARKET SHARE did his best last week, but no horse was closing into the strong wind and driving snow. The outside post looks like a problem at first, but in this short field and with plenty of talent, he should pick up cover. (6) MISTER HERBIE rarely puts in a bad race and Sears elected to choose this guy over Arch Madness. (3) WISHING STONE rode the bias and stole the race last week. He’ll be gunning to the front again and remains dangerous.

Race 7

(1) PANESTHETIC made his second start since September and didn’t race too badly. He gets a slight drop in class this week and should bring a good effort in a tough race to figure. (4) SALEVSTER STALLION left from post 10 into a strong wind last week and had something left to close a bit in the lane. (2) GIDDY UP BLACKFLY also raced against the bias last time. That effort was better than it looks. (5) FLIGHT ELAL arrives with some form for trainer Ron Burke.

Race 8 – Governor’s Cup Final

(6) ARTHUR BLUE CHIP intrigued me with a gutsy qualifier two starts back. I know the speed is there and I think we are going to see his best effort of the year on Saturday. (5) JK ENDOFANERA seems to get better with each start and both qualifiers were solid. (4) CARRACCI HANOVER adds Lasix this week and trainer Burke thinks that will make a big difference. (2) SO SURREAL seems to move up on the big track, but rumor has it he will be scratched.

Race 9 – Three Diamonds Final

(8) ACT NOW added Lasix in her recent qualifier and was much better than the past performance line looks. She finished well within herself with something left in the tank. The outside post hurts, but I believe she’ll be forwardly placed this week. (1) ALI BLUE is clearly the most accomplished in this group. I don’t love her as the favorite but I can’t toss her either. (4) INSTANT RESPECT was used hard last time and paid the price. I’m using her underneath in the exotics.

Race 10 – TVG Free For All Final

(4) FOILED AGAIN just keeps chugging along with gutsy effort after gutsy effort despite the trip. I’m not sure he could beat this group in July when they pace in 1:46 and change or 1:47, but in the winter when the pace is slightly slower, he can play and win on any night. I see him as a reasonable play in the 5-2 range. (8) CAPTAINTREACHEROUS tackles older horses for the first time in his career and has his work cut out for him from post eight. Look for him to be second or third over. If the pace is fast (and it should be), he’ll be firing late. (3) PET ROCK is the legitimate favorite and that’s the reason I can’t pick him. He also seems likely to be forced to make two early moves to secure the front in a fast time. (5) SWEET LOU has quietly picked up his game lately. (9) WARRAWEE NEEDY needs to show more guts before I can pick him on top; using in exotics. (6) BETTOR’S EDGE moves into the Burke barn.

Race 11 – Moni Maker

(8) BEE A MAGICIAN looks to extend her perfect season to 17 wins. Simply put, she is two seconds faster than her rivals tonight. (3) MA CHERE HALL should charge off the gate and get a big piece. (2) HANDOVER BELLE figures in the exotics if she gets a clean trip.

Race 12

(8) HILLBILLY HANOVER finds a field without much early zip and found that dimension last week in victory; edge. (7) STATE TREASURER rode live cover to victory in this class last week. If he can work out a similar trip, watch out. (2) GREAT VINTAGE can go a big mile when he is feeling good; wildcard.

Race 13

(7) ALEXIE MATTOSIE was helped by the bias last time, but that was a big mile regardless of the track conditions. (5) DREAMLANDS ART raced well on the rim and seems to be sitting on a good effort. (1) ALSACE HANOVER picks up Tetrick this week. (10) IDEAL CHAMP drops down in his third start since early September.


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