11/16/2017 3:11PM

Meadowlands: Saturday 11/18 Analysis


Best Bet: KISSIN IN THE SAND (3rd)

Spot Play: LOST IN TIME (10th)

Race 1 - $10,000 Guaranteed Survivor Pick Ten Pool

Race 2 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 8 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 8 - 25 / $44.30 (-$5.70)

BEST BETS: 2 - 2 / $5.70 (+$1.70)

Race 1

(3) QUICK DEAL moves into the Harmon barn, which tends to do well with this type of difficult trotter. His debut qualifier for this barn was OK and there is no denying that he is the fastest in here when he behaves. (6) STARSABOVEALLERAGE has typically been in higher classes here and performed well. David Miller has driven him twice this year and the result was a pair of wins. (10) MASTER OF LAW has talent but plenty of issues, and post 10 to overcome. (9) P L ICABOD switches to Brett Miller. Maybe he can wake him up.

Race 2

(1) DIZZY RIZZY is arguably the best horse, has form, a good post and hails from the #3 barn in the country in terms of wins. Oh, and she comes with a stable-mate in (1A) PINE TAB that is capable with the right trip. (6) WAR CRY HALL has a couple of wins here this year and Hechkoff has seen success with him. (2) PERMANENT JOY is not quite as good as he was in his younger days, but I could see him getting into the exotics.

Race 3

(2) KISSIN IN THE SAND romped in the Kindergarten Final after failing to make the Breeders Crown due to a bad trip. She jumps off the page for me in this spot. (10) REIGN ON ME looks great on paper if you can ignore the poor showing in the Crown Final. It’s hard to say if she’ll be handled aggressively enough to get involved, but I would take a shot underneath if the exacta was north of $20. (1) MEAN LEEN was a bit short last time after missing five weeks of action. Erv Miller trainee could certainly show more here. (8) PYTHON BLUE CHIP took a shot in the Matron and weakened; maybe shows more with a better trip?

Race 4

(9) JAKE finds himself outside of stakes action for the first time in a while and has no excuse not to romp. (7) BUFF looked very good going down the road last Saturday and squeezes in under the Also Eligible earnings condition. (10) P L HERCULES is certainly fast enough to win and he did behave with hobbles added in the qualifier. (5) MASSIVE LIGHTNING steps up off a win and might be able to go with a bunch of these given a decent trip.

Race 5

With the most logical winners having drawn outside and the fact that they only need to finish in the top 9 to make the Final, I’m going to roll the dice with price horse. (2) SMOKE AND MIRRORS had a bit of sneaky late trot in her qualifier and has displayed flashes of ability when racing in Canada. Given a clean trip by Sears, I wouldn’t be shocked if she lit up the board. (8) BASQUIAT has plenty of good lines with the exception of her race at Hoosier. Considering she usually shows early speed, I see her as the one to beat. (10) PLUNGE BLUE CHIP had a great year on the New York Sire Stakes circuit but failed in the $225,000 final. She did rebound by marching down the road at Dover versus a weaker group in the Matron; another contender. (7) SEVIYORUM is as consistent as they come but lacks a signature win.

Race 6

(7) STRATOCASTER was sharp in victory last Saturday and looks like the clear one to beat. (2) ROCK TO GLORY was stuck behind stalled cover with absolutely no shot of winning last week yet still motored home. He’ll be the only other horse on my multi-race tickets. (9) BIG STRETCH MARK showed some speed early and chased the top pick nicely last time. (6) VICTORY AT LAST is off a nice early speed try.

Race 7

I’m really not sure where to go here because this race is essentially a prep because we’ll see the same group next week in the Final. I’ll try (4) BLUE MOON STRIDE, who has been in some tough spots due to bad posts lately and has proven to be fast enough when in contention. (2) NIKE FRANCO N is another horse that simply didn’t show up in the Crown Finals at Hoosier. If driven like this race matters, she is the one to beat. (7) LADY SHADOW isn’t the same horse she was last year but at least you know she’ll likely be leaving and giving her all.

Race 8

(9) FASHIONWOODCHOPPER disappointed many when he didn’t make the Breeders Crown final, but I’m not going to hold that one anomaly of a race against him. If David Miller puts him in play we should see a strong effort and reasonable odds. (1) FOURTH DIMENSION is another coming off a lackluster race at Hoosier. I thought he was the best in this division going into the Crown and I’m not willing to take that title away from him just yet. (5) MET’S HALL puts in a good race every week and has proven to be as fast as any in here. (7) WOLFGANG has to prove his pure speed on the big track but did nothing wrong winning the Matron last time.

Race 9

(5) COLORFUL JASMINE came up short last time after missing three weeks of action. In a field without a standout, I’ll take a shot with a horse that I know will be forwardly placed and has three wins in four starts here this year. (6) DANDYS BEAUTY makes starts in consecutive weeks for the first time in a while, so she can certainly be tighter here. Trainer typically brings in horses that race well. (8) ABBIJADE HANOVER is probably the favorite in here but I was expecting a better showing in the stretch last week. (7) ROCK ME GENTLY comes off a win but is 0 for 6 here the last three years.

Race 10

(10) LOST IN TIME is in good company as one that simply didn’t produce as expected in the Crown final. He’s in a new barn now. In a field where many will be looking to beat one horse and make the Final next week, I see this guy as looking to make a mark. I’ll be surprised if he doesn’t leave off the gate and at least the price should be good. (6) SPRINGSTEEN is a big question mark here. He’s been great in his last two starts for trainer Rene Allard, but now Mark Harder is listed because Allard isn’t welcome here. I’m inclined to think he’ll race well, but I just don’t know. (8) CLOSING STATEMENT finished very well from an impossible spot in the Matron. This guy has talent and will win a big race sooner or later. (9) AMERICAN HISTORY will be everyone’s darling after his blowout win last week. I want to see more if the price is short.

Race 11

My selection of (4) ALONEINSPADES is more of a condemnation of the favorites rather than a strong endorsement of his ability. He raced OK from post 9 last time and could be placed on the engine tonight. (8) ALWAYS A DIAMOND actually left and settled for a quick tuck last week before making a bad move to the rim behind a parked-out foe and losing all momentum. Don’t ignore him. (3) DAVID’S DREAM is the morning line chalk but hardly inspires confidence; using underneath only. (2) SO TAKE THAT needs to show me more before I’ll pick him on top again.

Race 12

(6) TEXAS TERROR N comes off a game mile and now appears to be in against a softer group. (7) ART HISTORY drops out of the same race as the top pick and obviously has a chance if he can wake up. (2) BRUCE’S MAGIC raced well uncovered a week ago and looms as a trip threat.

Race 13

(2) SISKEL was used early and paid the price by tiring badly late. I’m going to give him another shot on the class drop. (9) WESTERN JOE finished well ahead of the top pick last week but is now stuck in post 9. Maybe Tetrick will send him? (5) ROYALE BIG GUY gets a new driver and a switch to the big track. (3) HOPE FOR BADLANDS hasn’t raced in over a year. If ready to roll he’ll win for fun.

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