11/10/2016 4:00PM

Meadowlands: Saturday 11/12 Analysis


Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 30 - 78 / $130.30 (-$25.70)

BEST BETS: 3 - 6 / $6.90 (-$5.10)

Best Bet: ALWAYS B MIKI (6th)

Spot Play: ASHLEY’S HUSBAND (7th)

Race 1

(7) BELIEVE THIS ROMEO ships in off a sharp score at Vernon and picks up Yannick Gingras. In a field of camera shy individuals, he looks as good as any. (1) STIMULUS PLAN was in good position and came up flat late a week ago. That said, this race is likely to go slower than that 1:52 1/5 mile and we get a driver change to David Miller. (9) ITALIAN REBEL moves into a new barn that has started the meet fairly well with a 3-1-1-1 record.

[MEADOWLANDS: Watch Live Video and Analysis for the TVG Finals at The Meadowlands Saturday.]

Race 2

(1) TRUE BLUE HALL could be the value play in this field. He was stuck first-over last time and his previous starts were from outside posts on smaller tracks. I can see him coming up with a big effort in this spot. (3) SOUTHWIND INDY is another who has been dealing with bad posts and could show more in this spot. (4) SPICEBOMB went to the front and got caught again. He certainly seems better from off the pace. (7) SCREAMIN SEAMAN A is racing well enough to use underneath and seems capable of upsetting.

Race 3

(2) ROCKAVELLIAN is another sharp Vernon shipper picking up Gingras. New trainer Joseph Skowyra seems to have figured him out. (8) MEDOLAND JATE drops a notch this week and really wasn’t that bad last time. (4) AMPED UP switches to the big track and has won over this surface in 2016.

Race 4

I had no interest in (6) D’ONE when she raced in the Breeders Crown because I felt she needed a race. Now with that effort under her halter, I see no reason why this classy mare can’t step up her game against the division’s best. (2) HANNELORE HANOVER is clearly the horse to beat and has been super this year. (7) BEE A MAGICIAN wound up trapped along the cones too long in the Breeders Crown. I wouldn’t be shocked if Sears wanted to set the pace with that race in the back of his mind. She is very dangerous.

Race 5

(5) MR BLISSFULL switched to Callahan in the bike and rallied nicely last time. In a field lacking form, that seems like a reasonable angle. (10) NORTHERN PRIZE comes in with decent form from Freehold and was a solid $10,000 claimer here last year. Maybe new driver Brett Miller can spark his engine. (1) SEAFOOD MIKE should be firing away from the inside and get a piece. (2) RELENTLESS DREAMER looks awful on paper but I’ve always thought Campbell drove him best.

Race 6

(3) ALWAYS B MIKI is impossible to pick against in this spot; goes out a winner. (7) SHAMBALLA can best fast off the gate and this looks like a perfect spot to show early speed and follow the top choice for second money. (4) ALL BETS OFF is winding down a strong career with over $2 million earned. If the trip works out he can get second.

Race 7

(5) ASHLEY’S HUSBAND was given no opportunity to win and closed strongly for a minor share last time. Veteran gelding typically dominates at this level and seems like a must play, though I’m a bit worried he’ll be an underlay. (1) STAY UP LATE is in serious form right now and impossible to ignore. (6) URBANITE HANOVER has woken up in recent weeks with Gingras in the bike. (2) HILLBILLY HANOVER is just another sharp horse in what looks like a fairly competitive event.

Race 8

(3) LADY SHADOW is too fast for this group if she brings anything close to her best game. (1) SASSY HANOVER should push away just enough from the inside to sit a nice trip behind the speedy top choice. Four-year-old seems to be coming around late in her first year against older mares. (9) SOLAR SISTER gets a nice driver change to Sears and has the early zip to make the front and sit a trip. (7) FROST DAMAGE BLUES deserves respect in the exotics.

Race 9

(2A) UNCLE LILE A couldn’t have looked much better in winning his Meadowlands debut. I’m not crazy about post 10, but at least we get a decent entrymate in FEARLESS LEADER N in case the trip is too much to overcome. (3) SHOW ME UP set a lifetime mark last week at age 9. Can he follow that up? In a race without too much early speed on paper, he looks like a major player. (1) MAJOR BUBBLES N also set his career mark last Saturday and has dangerous inside speed. (5) LEGENDS LUCK could be a factor with a smooth trip.

Race 10

(3) BAR HOPPING has a tough task ahead beating older foes but he certainly is sharp enough to accomplish that feat. It will ultimately come down to whether he can get a reasonable trip. (6) RESOLVE is the clear horse to beat. I’m torn because of that fact and the likelihood that he’ll be odds-on. If you can somehow get 7-5 or better on him, I’d probably make him the top pick. (5) WIND OF THE NORTH has been racing much better over the last six weeks; using underneath.

Race 11

(4) WESTERN DYNASTY won his only start over the track this year and also owns a 1:50 2/5 qualifying win on this surface. Against a formless group, I’ll take a shot with him. (1) GRAVE DANCER hasn’t proven to be as fast as some of the others but is clearly the sharpest. (2) DANCIN HILL adds Gingras and has proven successful here in the past.

Race 12

(4) SIR JAKE’S Z TAM is coming off an interesting mile where he was being loose-lined in the three-hole and then pulled first over to challenge. It was just a strange performance and in a field without any standouts, I’ll take a shot in the dark. (1) MY SPIRIT SOARS comes off a decent mile and seems to have righted the ship. (9) Q ROCK has good gate speed, a quality that most of these seem to lack. (5) TINK AND TIGER dropped to this level and was okay last time; trip player.

[DRF HARNESS LIVE: Real-time insights from the DRF Harness team this Saturday at 7:00 p.m.]