04/27/2016 2:52PM

Meadowlands: Friday 4/29 Analysis

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Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 3 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 7 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 165 - 561 / $965.20 (-$156.80)  BEST BETS: 20 - 42 / $81.80 (-$2.20)

Best Bet: FASHION CREDITOR (4th)

Spot Play: PURITY (11th)

Race 1

(4) TYSON got away with soft fractions but ultimately won easily in his return qualifier. Driver/trainer Trond Smedshammer seems likely to be aggressive and that should be the difference maker against others who might need a start. (3) JIMMY WILLIAM is one of the top Hambletonian prospects from the Jimmy Takter barn and qualified very professionally. While I think he is the best horse in the race, I’m not sure a short price is warranted on a horse that seems likely to be raced conservatively. (8) STICK OF BUTTER closed okay in her 2016 debut but drew poorly and faces some decent boys.

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Race 2

(2) TONIGHTIMLOVINGYOU put in a much better effort than it seems on paper in her most recent qualifier. Homebred by Christina Takter may have an upset up her sleeve. (6) HEELS ON THE BEACH aired it out in her most recent qualifier with Lasix added and still stopped. Sometimes it takes a start for the medication to kick in. (8) PENPAL has ability but seems likely to be taken back to last in her 2016 debut.

Race 3

(7) WHATAWORKOUT has displayed some good speed in very limited action through his first two years of racing. The comeback qualifiers look good, so I’m hoping aboard. (5) HONOR ABOVE ALL was a workmanlike second in his first start of the year and can show more now. (6) MUSCLES ON FIRE showed some late trot in his Big M debut and seems to have some ability.

Race 4

(7) FASHION CREDITOR gets a huge amount of class relief and should destroy this field. (4) STITCH IN TIME has been racing reasonably well and does pick up David Miller this week. (2) WARRAWEE PREFERRED crushed lesser and may have picked up some confidence.

Race 5

(9) ROYAL ENGAGEMENT is very sharp and has the early speed to gain early position from the outside. (7) MOJARRA HANOVER typically picks up her game when she reaches the basement conditions. (5) M A JACKIE should be closing late for a spot on the bottom of the exotics.

Race 6

This race is somewhat difficult to decipher since some horses may be getting a conservative drive and other have no early speed. I’m going to try (1) SASSA HANOVER coming back to the big track after a string of lackluster efforts. I can see her controlling the action with soft fractions. (6) SHEEZA SHARK N has been super since coming to America but needs some pace help to set up her late rally. (5) BETTOR BE STEPPIN would be my top pick if I felt confident she would show early speed. I just don’t know what to expect from her. (7) STACIA HANOVER is a quality filly who figures to race from off the pace tonight and have too far to come late.

Race 7

(8) BOURBON BAY is back on the big track where he was fourth versus better two starts back and also finished second in February versus Open company. This is no easy spot, but I think he can make some noise at a price. (5) DANISH DURANGO has been racing well all month and should get enough pace help to set up his late rally. (9) B YOYO is feeling really good right now. Can he overcome the outside assignment? (6) ROCK OF CASHEL is hard to toss out considering his recent efforts.

Race 8

(7) KATIE SAID scored impressively off the bench. Five-year-old mare has always had ability and might finally be ready to realize her full potential. (6) DIVINE CAROLINE improved in her second start of the year; huge threat. (2) REQUEST FOR PAROLE dealt with some traffic trouble last Friday. She has a shot, but I think the top two are slightly better than her.

Race 9

(6) HYWAY MARCUS took some time off after dealing with breaking issues back in February. I see him as a possible sneaky play versus a mixed bag of contenders. (1) MESMERIZED drops back down to the NW7500 level and should race well. (5) LUCKY MASS steps up in sreach of his third straight win. This field might be a tad too fast for him, but I still respect his form. (7) SWEET JUSTICE beat up on a weak field last time but the back class is there.

Race 10

This is one of those races where I wouldn’t mind pressing the ALL button. But the more I looked at it, one of the three inside horses really should be able to get the job done. (1) KEENAN wired the field last week and should be hustled away from the inside. It is his race to lose. (2) TROTALOT came up short last time versus the top choice, but I don’t think we saw this horse’s best. (3) FEISTY LOVE is off an open-lengths win and has been racing well lately.

Race 11

(4) PURITY continues to be in good form despite the poor finishes. She has been in over her head of late and finally finds a softer field tonight. (3) KELLI RACHELLE was written into this race under the AE condition and her recent form isn’t bad. (6) BETTOR CHILL OUT drops back down and does pick up Campbell; capable.

Race 12

(2) MEADOWBRANCH WENDY comes off two decent efforts versus better and should take care of business on Friday night. (4) COMMENTARY is back at the NW3500 level where he won by 3-plus lengths two starts back. (8) IMA GOLD DIGGER N has the early speed to get involved and hit the number. (3) NAUGHTY NOT NICE is another moving down in class.

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