10/26/2016 3:34PM

Meadowlands: Friday 10/28 Analysis


Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 6 - $75,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

Race 10 - $25,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

MEET STATS: 14 - 27 / $68.40 (+$14.40)

BEST BETS: 1 - 2 / $2.40 (-1.60)

Best Bet: VEGAS DREAM (2nd)

Spot Play: NEW JERSEY VIKING (3rd)

Race 1

(6) CAVIART WONDER has turned a corner in recent weeks and it is no surprise that a Noel Daley trainee is peaking in the Fall. I’ll take a shot with this speedy Muscle Massive filly in a race with plenty of contenders. (4) OVERDRAFT VOLO is ultra consistent but not a favorite of mine in the top spot. (2) CRANN TARA has won half of her career starts but gets tested for class to some extent this week. (3) ONDA SU is capable of stepping up if she behaves.

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Race 2

(8) VEGAS DREAM flashed good speed in his debut for trainer Ron Burke but wound up locked in the three-hole with no room to stretch his legs in the stretch. He could provide a bit of value off of that line. (3) HEAVEN’S GAIT has won two straight and picks up Brian Sears this week; likely an underlay. (5) CHILLN MATISSE comes off a big mile in 1:53 1/5 at Harrah’s Philly.

Race 3

(7) NEW JERSEY VIKING closed well from a tough spot two starts back and wasn’t going anywhere with the trip in last week’s Breeders Crown elimination. I liked him with Svanstedt driving so I’m all-in with McCarthy in the bike. (1) INTERNATIONAL MONI comes off a nice win at the Red Mile and ranks as a clear player. (5) MOUNTAIN OF LOVE added hobbles last time and didn’t improve. This spot is easier, though. (3) SHAKE IT OFF LINDY seems to hit the ticket every week.

Race 4

(7) FOUR HOUR NAP seems to be rounding into form in the last couple of weeks and faces a blank field tonight. (1) ROYAL KNOCKOUT has dead aim and could not pass a week ago. This is another easy spot. (5) LET HER ROCK finds a field without a plethora of early zip and might be worth a stab as a potential leaver.

Race 5

(3) JJ SHARK got caught in brutal fractions while first-over last time and picked up a win in his prior start; narrow edge here. (6) BEST SAID has dangerous early speed and picks up a driver who likes to go down the road. (1) CITY PIE gets a nice driver change. Eight-year-old doesn’t win often but has wins here each of the last two years.

Race 6

(2) HANNELORE HANOVER & (5) BEE A MAGICIAN are tough to separate on paper. I’m giving the narrow edge to the former since her price could be a bit higher on the basis of the break last time. It seems clear that she hated the turns over the small oval and should rebound. Bee A Magician hasn’t lost this year and certainly looked good in her comeback race at Yonkers. (1) CHARMED LIFE is capable of saving ground along the cones and getting into the tri or super.

Race 7

(4) ALWAYS B MIKI showed no signs of fatigue last week after his world record 1:46 win at the Red Mile. Unless he drops down below 4-5 in the wagering, I can’t pick against the fastest horse in the race from a perfect post. (7) WIGGLE IT JIGGLEIT couldn’t have won the Yonkers Invitational last time any easier. You have to expect Montrell Teague will be gunning him to the front and a win would be no surprise. (1) SPLIT THE HOUSE raced okay from off the pace last Friday. This guy has some serious speed in his arsenal and I’d expect him to be tighter on Friday. (2) SHAMBALLA has bested the top two here in the past; not impossible.

Race 8

This race is (2) LADY SHADOW’s to lose. If she brings anything close to her best game, the rest of these mares have no shot. If she comes up empty (which has happened), the race turns into a crapshoot. (3) KATIE SAID looked to be on the verge of a big year at the start of the stakes season, but never quite got in gear through the summer months. I’m willing to roll the dice on her one more time on the switch to Tim Tetrick in the bike. (4) FROST DAMAGE BLUES will garner plenty of attention after charging home in 25 2/5 last time. She’s a nice filly that will offer poor value. (7) SASSA HANOVER has been better in recent starts; using at least underneath.

Race 9

(2) RESOLVE jumps off the page as much the best in this field. He hasn’t thrown in a bad race all year and seems to be in a very soft spot. (6) CENTURION ATM falls into the same category as Katie Said, an underachiever who has shown flashes of speed at points and is picking up a new driver (Tetrick). (7) FLANAGAN MEMORY is the clear and obvious second choice. He’ll likely finish second but I’m not thrilled with the probable $6 exacta price. (8) CRAZY WOW put in his best race in some time at the Red Mile and qualified in good order last week. I wouldn’t be shocked if he won.

Race 10

(5) MARKET SHARE has been closing nicely at Philly, which isn’t the ideal trip over that five-eighths surface. Former Hambo champ seems to be finding himself and should be able to handle this group. (8) CROSBYS CLAM BAKE was in fine form before getting sick. He knows how to win here. (1) WAITING ON A WOMAN has proven himself here in the past and hails from a barn that knows how to get them ready.

Race 11

(8) DUPREE couldn’t get his act together for trainer Ake Svanstedt and was just moved to the Marcus Melander barn. His qualifier was okay while chasing Crown starter Crazy Wow and you have to like that the connections reach out to Tetrick to drive. (1) LABATT HANOVER was never put in play last time; worth a second chance. (2) JIMMY WILLIAM hasn’t panned out but really doesn’t face much tonight.

Race 12

(4) DETROIT RAPPER was having trouble getting out of his own way in qualifying action but came up with a credible mile at Vernon last time. Five-year-old has proven himself time and again here and gets the narrow call in a close-knit affair. (1) BATTLE MAGE comes off two efforts at Yonkers from bad posts and might be capable of surprising. (9) KEYSTONE THOMAS has the early zip to gun to the front and may not look back. (6) HILL I AM could have been a bit sharper in his qualifier. If he improves a win is possible.

Race 13

(3) MAJOR BUBBLES N came up with a strong mile from an outside post the last time Brett Miller was in the bike. Gelding hasn’t been winning often, but this isn’t exactly a field of winners. (1) VILLAGE BEAT comes in with decent form and hails from a barn that knows how to classify horses. (2) RELENTLESS DREAMER finds one of those spots tonight where he can do some damage with his late rally. (4) JK PATRIOT can’t be as bad as his most recent outing.