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Lani, unpredictable and headstrong, a real Derby wild card
The richest of the races on the list assembled by Churchill Downs that award Kentucky Derby qualifying points is run about 7,400 miles from the twin spires, and some would argue that the winner of the $2 million United Arab Emirates Derby, despite being assured entry into the Kentucky Derby by earning 100 points, is not necessarily qualified.
The best Derby finish from a UAE Derby winner came from the race’s inaugural winner, China Visit, who in 2000 managed a sixth at Churchill. The average Derby finish by a horse who raced in the UAE Derby is about 10th, though Daddy Long Legs’s 20th in 2012 drags down the average.
There might be no good reason to believe that 2016 UAE Derby winner Lani is much better than his predecessors, but make no mistake: Wherever he finishes, Lani has made a memorable impression this Derby season. The colt from Japan was among the first intended Derby starters to arrive in Louisville, and for the last several weeks, he has blown through Churchill Downs like a sailor on extended port call.
He yells full-throated, wild-eyed at nearly every passing horse, and Lani, evidently angling for an early stallion career, makes no effort to hide an already-keen eye for fillies. His training sessions have been the source of amusement and amazement. Lani spends far longer out on the track than most American horses, and it often has taken him far longer than American horses to run around Churchill’s famed oval.
Lani worked five furlongs on April 20 in 1:06, a time barely fast enough to make the official work tab. In a more recent workout, jockey Yutaka Take had to resort to the crop just to get Lani up to a breezing speed about three furlongs from the finish line. There are mornings when it seems that Lani basically says, “Thanks, not today.”
“He always had a strong mind and can be very bossy and colty,” said Keita Yutaka, the agent for owner Koji Maeda. “That’s never changed. Even back home, he’s always been like that. That was the same in Dubai and when he came to the U.S. He’s not willing to run all the time. He has a very fracturing temperament, and it’s hard to predict. But if you look in his past performances, you can see he never gets beat by a large margin.”
It’s true that for all his quirks, Lani can run some. Whether he’s fast enough to make a dent in the Derby remains to be seen, but just getting to this point is no small feat. Lani is the second Japanese-based horse to make the Derby – Ski Captain, also with Take up, finished 14th in 1995 – and only the ninth Derby starter to have made all his pre-Derby starts outside North America. The most recent of those was Mubtaahij, who finished eighth last year after winning the UAE Derby by a far wider margin than Lani. Mubtaahij’s people weren’t especially downtrodden by just getting into the top half of the Derby field, but Lani’s camp is looking for more.
“The owner and his racing team have been quite successful for more than 20 years, and they’ve won more than 20 Group 1s,” said Yutaka. “Their ambitions are very high. They are only thinking about winning the Kentucky Derby.”
Lani, who shipped directly from Dubai to the U.S., is trained by the former jockey Mikio Matsunaga. He’s by Tapit and out of the mare Heavenly Romance, whose sire, Sunday Silence, famously won the 1989 Kentucky Derby over Easy Goer. Lani debuted racing 1 1/4 miles on turf last September and since then has won three of five dirt races, the $2 million UAE Derby easily his most important victory.
It’s fair and important to question the quality of the competition Lani beat March 26 at Meydan. The 3-year-old filly Polar River finished second with trouble in upper stretch, and while she’s seemingly talented, there’s no good way on her form lines to measure her ability. A close third in the race was another Japanese horse, Yu Change, of no great accomplishment whose connections did not nominate him to the Triple Crown.
But Lani’s performance was perhaps better than those bare basics. In Meydan’s immense saddling enclosure, he was kept far away from his foes, heading down the tunnel to the parade ring after the other horses had gone past, hollering all the way down the tunnel. Lani spent little time in the parade ring, going out onto the track to warm up long before the post parade.
Unsurprisingly, he broke last, spotting the field several lengths, and racing from the rear, he lost ground the entire first turn before Take made a very early move, letting Lani zoom from the back of the pack to a pace-pressing position as he wheeled onto the backstretch. Lani settled there, lost ground again on the far turn, and ground out a three-quarter-length victory, the margin perhaps not fully expressing his superiority on the night since Lani did not appear fully extended.
“As soon after he hit the finish line, the connections decided to bring him to the Kentucky Derby, but it was more than a year project,” said Tanaka, who has traveled with Lani since the gray colt left Japan and said his connections are hopeful of making all three legs of the Triple Crown. “The owner, he recognized this horse was very talented when he was an early 2-year-old, and having a run in the Kentucky Derby has always been in his mind.”
Tanaka said Lani’s camp hasn’t been at all distressed by the unusual morning exercise at Churchill, but unlike at Meydan, after Lani walks over from the stables for the Derby, there will be no escaping the noise, chaos, and close proximity of 19 other horses in the last lead-up to his race. Will Lani melt down?
The colt has no early speed. He’s nearly certain to break slowly and perhaps 19 horses in front of him going into the first turn.
“I don’t predict him to be in the first half of the field on the homestretch the first time, but he just keeps coming and coming, and he will finish strongly,” said Tanaka.
And even if he doesn’t, extending the UAE Derby’s run of also-rans, Lani has made his presence known this Derby season.
HE WILL MAKE GOOD $5,000 CLAIMER @ ELLIS PARK. ONLY A FOOL BETS ON THE WORST HORSE IN THE FIELD AND PRAYS FOR A MIRACLE.
$2 win and show on # 17, per early draw here. No show betting here at The Campanile.
I'm with MW here as in if the ua derby winner wins the Kentucky Derby it will be at our expense.
at 30-1 or higher i will be using him.
He looked good winning the UAE DERBY in Dubai .he stumbled dropped back then went widest made an early move into contention. Looked like he was waiting on the filly in the stretch and finally closed well late to win. the problem is he beat a weak field and ran a slower time than MUBTAHIJ did the previous year. it also does not help that no horse coming from DUBAI has run well enough in the derby to hit the board . i don't even have a problem with the fact that he refuses to breeze in the morning and actually like the long jogs and gallops . also love the breeding for the distance and the fact that unlike a lot of foreign horses he is bred to be a dirt horse. But the negatives outweigh the positives and i am afraid that TAPIT and SUNDAY SILENCE hot blood might just boil over with the noise and crowds. talented but with too many negatives for me.