10/23/2003 11:00PM

Klein's Breeders' Cup analysis



Sightseek rallied from fifth behind a slower-than-par pace to win the Beldame comfortably in an impressive triumph that should set her up nicely for this race. Her consistency has been admirable with a 12-8-4-0 career record. She will be within easy striking distance from the start, and should sweep past her rivals when asked. Elloluv finished a close second behind Got Koko, and ahead of Azeri, but was disqualified back to fourth in her return from a layoff of nearly five months. She earned a contending Beyer in that race, and will be a threat if she improves second time back. Take Charge Lady can hold on for a part with her best. Got Koko loves Santa Anita, with a 7-5-0-1 local record.

Juvenile Fillies

From Oct. 15-19, there were 11 front-running winners from 31 races on the main track at Santa Anita, for 35 percent wins. If that trend continues, Forest Music would be a very interesting longshot as the speed of the speed. Although she still has many questions to answer, and might possibly lose by a furlong or two, I'm willing to accept that risk at generous double-digit odds. Halfbridled is an excellent filly, but she is not invincible. Post 14 and underlaid odds make her worth trying to beat. Victory U. S. A. and Secret Selection are both capable of winning at square prices as they continue to improve.


Trips will probably be a significant factor in the outcome of this event, so it is a good idea to support a runner who has enough tactical speed to stay within striking distance of the leaders throughout. Six Perfections has the right pace style and has been dependable, with a 9-5-4-0 career record. She beat males in the Prix Jacques le Marois and can handle them again. Designed for Luck owns a sterling 7-3-2-2 record on this turf course, and figures to be within two or three lengths of the leaders early. He is sharp and rates as a prime contender. Century City needed his last race and is worth a bet at attractive overlaid odds.


Shake You Down has won six of his last seven races, and was quite impressive while cruising to a 5 3/4-length score last time, with a 115 Beyer at Belmont. He would be the one to beat on a fair track, and it should be noted that there were 35 percent front-running winners from 31 main-track races at Santa Anita from Oct. 15-19. If he is also helped by a bias, he will be formidable. Midas Eyes is returning from a four-month layoff, but his trainer, Bobby Frankel, owns a healthy 28 percent win rate with horses returning from breaks of two to six months. Valid Video was helped by the fast pace in the King's Bishop. Great Notion may upset them if he breaks alertly.

Filly and Mare Turf

Islington was a troubled third in this race last year. She ran a huge race against males when she finished third, beaten by only a neck by High Chaparral and Falbrav last time as a 16-1 longshot in the Group 1 Irish Champion. A similar performance would win this. Tates Creek loves Santa Anita, with a 4-3-1-0 local record, and has won five of her last six starts overall. Her ability to track the leaders from up close makes a clean trip likely. She deserves lots of respect, and will be hard to keep out of the exotics. Musical Chimes was hindered by the slow fractions last time, but still finished a contending second behind Tates Creek. A better pace scenario would make her tough.


Relaxed Gesture missed by only a neck in the Group 2 Beresford. He can rate within striking distance, and his ability to quicken when asked should give him a good trip in a race that will probably feature a strong pace. Attractive odds make him a bettable longshot. Cuvee has plenty of talent, but he may be less effective at this distance. A disadvantageous pace scenario could leave him vulnerable at underlaid odds. Tiger Hunt is coming around quickly, and will be gaining late.


Falbrav was an impressive winner of the Queen Elizabeth II, and the Juddmonte. Sandwiched between those two triumphs was a good performance when he was a troubled second by a neck in the Irish Champion. His tactical speed makes a good trip probable, and if he is tractable, he should be able to handle the added distance. High Chaparral won this race last year. He is better than he showed while finishing third in the Arc, and will be a serious threat if he delivers a more typical try. Sulamani is at the top of his game, but faces a much stronger field today than he did in his last race. Storming Home only beat three opponents last time, but overcame a much slower-than-par pace with a strong late kick.


Medaglia d'Oro was no match for Candy Ride, who ran a huge race, in the Pacific Classic, but still earned a 118 Beyer in defeat. He has won five of his last seven, and should be able to take this if he delivers a representative performance. His trainer, Bobby Frankel, shows 28 percent wins with horses returning from layoffs of two to six months, so the two-month layoff is not a significant concern. Hold That Tiger was a non-threatening second behind Mineshaft in the Woodward in his return to the U.S., and should improve with the benefit of that race under his belt. Perfect Drift has won six of his last nine. He did what he had to do to beat Congaree and Tenpins in his last two, but now faces a more difficult assignment.