07/06/2012 6:50PM

Klein: Dance Smartly at Woodbine offers overlay opportunity

Michael Burns
Indian Pond could likely improve in her second start off a layoff.

It isn't easy to find an overlaid contender in a typical seven-horse field, especially when three of the leading contenders just raced against each other. But good opportunities can occasionally be found. Sunday's Grade 2, $300,000 Dance Smartly, a 1 1/8-mile turf race for fillies and mares at Woodbine, is a race I plan on betting on.

Marketing Mix is clearly the filly to beat with five wins, and a second-place finish from seven races on grass, including a 2-for-2 record on the grass at Woodbine. Her merits are obvious, so she'll probably be pounded down to underlaid odds. She's strong, but she isn't invincible. You only have to look back to her second most recent race, the Grade 2 Distaff Turf Mile at Churchill, to find a non-threatening fourth-place finish in a field of seven as the 3-2 favorite.

The key to handicapping this race is that Marketing Mix just raced against two of these same opponents last time at Woodbine in the Grade 2 Nassau. Marketing Mix won that one-mile race by 1 1/4 lengths.

Indian Pond broke a bit slowly, and finished with good energy down the stretch to be third, just 1 3/4 lengths behind Marketing Mix. Is there a reason to believe that Indian Pond might be able to run a few lengths faster, and defeat Marketing Mix in the rematch on Sunday? Absolutely. Indian Pond was making her first start since Nov. 5. Given the benefit of that race last time, continued improvement would not be surprising for her the second time back. Indian Pond was a 21-1 longshot in that race, so a reasonable price is likely on her in the Dance Smartly.

Inglorious finished 1 1/4 lengths behind Marketing Mix two races ago, and 3 1/4 lengths behind her in the Nassau. She has trained well since her last start, but she will need a stronger late kick to turn the tables on Marketing Mix and Indian Pond.

Kissable is worth considering. She has made all nine of her starts in Ireland. She finished third in the Group 1 Moyglare Stud, and third in the Group 3 Silver Flash in 2010. She showed signs of returning to form when she finished fourth last time in the Group 3 Lodge Park Stud EBF Park Express in her return from a layoff of 5 1/2 months.

I'll bet Indian Pond to win, and I'll box her in the exacta with Marketing Mix and Kissable.

Monmouth: Time to rise and shine

The feature race at Monmouth on Sunday is the $100,000 Long Branch, a 1 1/16-mile race on dirt for 3-year-olds.

Good Morning Diva finished fourth as a 31-1 longshot at Belmont in the Grade 2 Peter Pan two races ago, then finished a contending third at Monmouth in the Grade 3 Pegasus. He breezed a half-mile in 48.60 seconds since the Pegasus, and should enjoy a good trip while showing enough tactical speed to track the early leaders.

Macho Macho made a late gain from fifth to finish third, a neck behind the second horse at Churchill in the Grade 3, 1 1/16-mile Matt Winn, which was his first race at a route distance. He'll be a major player.

My Adonis finished third behind Algorithms and Hansen in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream, then was second behind Hansen in the Grade 3 Gotham. He has been less impressive since those races while finishing seventh of eight in the Grade 1 Wood, third of five as the heavy 3-10 favorite in the $51,000 Canonero II, and eighth of 11 in the Grade 1 Belmont. A return to form would make him tough.

Done Talking must match, or surpass his form from his win in the Grade 3 Illinois Derby to beat this field.

I'll bet on Good Morning Diva to win.

Hollywood: Trois Aureole ready

A field of five is scheduled to run in the $68,000 Le Cle, the feature race at Hollywood. Trois Aureole beat $75,000 maiden claimers, repeated vs. $80,000 N1X optional claimers, then finished fourth of five, just 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner of the Grade 2 Honeymoon. She can take another step forward today.

Lady Ten has never run a bad race with two wins, four seconds, and a third from seven starts. She needed six races to graduate, but she's in good form now, and deserves respect as she steps up in class. She's 2 for 2 on this turf course.

Long Face finished one position, and 2 1/4 lengths behind Trois Aureole in the Honeymoon. She's lightly raced with four starts, and can be a factor in her third race after a layoff of nearly seven months.

I'll bet on Trois Aureole to win, and I'll key her on top in the exacta over Lady Ten, and Long Face.