07/12/2012 5:15PM

King: Low Arlington Park pick-five takeout an incentive to play

Tom Keyser
Daddy Nose Best could challenge Silver Max in the Grade 3 American Derby.

Surprisingly, a long-term capital gain in the stock market and the Arlington pick five actually share something in common. They’re both currently taxed at a maximum of 15  percent, which in the world of taxes/takeouts, leaves more in your pocket and less in those of others.

In stark contrast, trifecta, superfecta, pick-three, and pick-four wagers at Arlington have a 25  percent takeout, according to www.horseplayersassociation.org, whose free, informative online database monitors takeout rates at tracks and provides other pertinent gambling information.

So if you’re going to fire away at Arlington, it makes sense to do so in the pick five, a wager that is even more intriguing than usual Saturday, thanks to three of the five races being graded stakes. Here’s a brief look at the sequence, and the horses I intend to use.

Race 8, Grade 3 American Derby

Silver Max (No. 6) has reigned supreme in the 3-year-old turf ranks this spring and will likely keep it going in this race, thanks to his front-running style that discourages a rider on an opposing horse from engaging him.

Tossing out a loss on dirt, in six turf races this year Silver Max is perfect. And not just that, he has never trailed at any call in those races.

Even so, the feeling here is that multiple graded winner Daddy Nose Best (No. 5) might be able to give him a run for his money with a return to peak form. Outrun in the Derby and Preakness, he is now shifting back to seemingly his preferred surface on turf, where he twice won races last year.

Race 9, Grade 3 Arlington Handicap

Boisterous (No. 9), third in the Grade 1 Manhattan and a specialist at this race’s 1 1/4-mile distance, is the class of the race and a winner of 7 of 14 turf starts, so it comes as no surprise that he’s on the tickets.

But being a stranger to Arlington and possessing only a minor edge in Beyer Speed Figures, the preference is to go three deep in this leg of the pick five, also using the course-loving Rahystrada (No. 8) and Mister Marti Gras (No. 4), a versatile horse that comes into this race having started in eight consecutive graded stakes.

Race 10, Grade 3 Stars and Stripes

Musketier (No. 10) is a veteran marathon specialist that is the most likely winner, but having drifted in and out of form over the past year or so, I just can’t single him with confidence.

Should he regress off a hard-fought win at Woodbine recently, this race becomes a scramble, leading me to also use Eagle Poise (No.  3), second in the San Juan Capistrano to the classy Bourbon Bay; and Joinem (No. 8), a fine second in the Louisville Handicap when trying a marathon distance for the first time.

Joinem, like several others on the card, was cross-entered in the Arlington Handicap, but the Stars and Stripes looks like the softer of the two races and gives him his best chance.

Race 11, allowance

Big Blue Nation (No. 8), making his third start off a layoff and coming off a runner-up finish at Churchill Downs, ran decently over a synthetic surface in stakes company in Ocala this winter, despite racing a distance beyond his best. If he handles Polytrack as well as dirt, he’ll likely win this.

Also meriting use is J J Garbar (No. 2), a nose loser versus similar June 23 at Arlington for Midwest Thoroughbreds, and longshot Nagys Piggy Bank (No. 5), fourth in the same race but a horse likely to move forward in his second race of the year.

Race 12, maiden claiming

Let’s end with a single: Grand Avenue (No. 10), who fits the profile for maiden claiming success, being a lightly raced maiden special weight dropper. He is proven sprinting on turf and starts for winning connections. Though taking an aggressive drop, he encouragingly shows a pair of workouts this month.

◗ With the pick five being available for play in 50-cent increments, this wager can be bet relatively inexpensively. Using the horses outlined above – going two deep in the first leg, three deep in the next three races, and then using a single in the final race – results in a ticket costing $27.

In numerical order, the bet looks like this: 50-cent pick-five wager – 5,6 with 4,8,9 with 3,8,10 with 2,5,8 with 10.

Subtlewave More than 1 year ago
youre correct. If you lose the takeout rate is completely irrelevant.
jack brandt More than 1 year ago
Your first paragraph is not correct. The 15% takeout is not a maximum tax because if you hit a pick 5 with a 15% takeout, more than likely you'll be given a W-2G and be expected to pay 28% of what you won in actual tax. So, please refrain from comparing takeout rates with tax rates on capital gains, because the analogy is a bad one.