03/09/2016 1:26PM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 9

Michael Amoruso
Shagaf beats Laoban in the Gotham Stakes last Saturday. Shagaf's Kentucky Derby odds have gone from 25-1 to 15-1, and Laoban has been added to the Derby Watch top 20 at 50-1.


Matt King Coal, who returned with a sharp allowance victory in his 3-year-old debut Sunday, and Laoban, who finished second in the Gotham Stakes on Saturday, are the two newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch top 20. Matt King Coal is 25-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Laoban is 50-1 on Watchmaker’s line. The unbeaten Shagaf, the winner of the Gotham, is down to 15-1 after being 25-1 a week ago, making him the co-fifth choice on Watchmaker’s line.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Derby Watch: Uncle Lino helping Sherlock make most of second chance


Rally Cry and Sunny Ridge both were dropped following their losing efforts in the Gotham. Watchmaker tweaked the odds on a couple of longtime Derby Watch members. Brody’s Cause is now 15-1 after being 12-1 a week ago, and Flexibility is up to 30-1 after being 25-1 last week.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays


This is a pivotal week for the Derby Watch, as eight of the top 20 are scheduled to run Saturday, with five in the San Felipe Stakes and three in the Tampa Bay Derby. Riker, making his first start of the year and his first since being transferred to Mark Casse, and the unbeaten Outwork are among those in the Tampa Bay Derby who could move onto the list with big efforts. Adventist, third in the Gotham, also is knocking on the door, along with Fountain of Youth third-place finisher Fellowship.

CarloCampanella More than 1 year ago
"Shagaf, the winner of the Gotham, is down to 15-1 after being 25-1 a week ago, making him the co-fifth choice on Watchmaker’s line." Shagaf was all out to get up to win a low quality field in the Gotham. He has NO CHANCE to win the Kentucky Derby. Not sure who would take 15-1 on him in March. You are assuming the risk that he won't get injured and actually run in the Derby in 2 months. Then, you have to account for the fact that he might draw the rail, or 20 hole, in the Derby and lose all chance. By the way, in a full 20 horse Derby field, he will go off on Derby day higher than 15-1!!!!
Carolyn Wyatt More than 1 year ago
San Felipe 3/12. 4 horse photo for win. Danzing Candy and Smokey Image not in the picture.
Eddie Lazaro More than 1 year ago
I think Mor Spirit will be having photos in the "Winner Circle!". You mean a photo for 2nd between 3 horses are Exagerrator, Uncle Lino and I Will Score?