03/09/2016 12:26PM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 9

Michael Amoruso
Shagaf beats Laoban in the Gotham Stakes last Saturday. Shagaf's Kentucky Derby odds have gone from 25-1 to 15-1, and Laoban has been added to the Derby Watch top 20 at 50-1.


Matt King Coal, who returned with a sharp allowance victory in his 3-year-old debut Sunday, and Laoban, who finished second in the Gotham Stakes on Saturday, are the two newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch top 20. Matt King Coal is 25-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Laoban is 50-1 on Watchmaker’s line. The unbeaten Shagaf, the winner of the Gotham, is down to 15-1 after being 25-1 a week ago, making him the co-fifth choice on Watchmaker’s line.

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Rally Cry and Sunny Ridge both were dropped following their losing efforts in the Gotham. Watchmaker tweaked the odds on a couple of longtime Derby Watch members. Brody’s Cause is now 15-1 after being 12-1 a week ago, and Flexibility is up to 30-1 after being 25-1 last week.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays


This is a pivotal week for the Derby Watch, as eight of the top 20 are scheduled to run Saturday, with five in the San Felipe Stakes and three in the Tampa Bay Derby. Riker, making his first start of the year and his first since being transferred to Mark Casse, and the unbeaten Outwork are among those in the Tampa Bay Derby who could move onto the list with big efforts. Adventist, third in the Gotham, also is knocking on the door, along with Fountain of Youth third-place finisher Fellowship.