03/05/2014 12:36PM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 5, 2014

Adam Coglianese/NYRA
In Trouble (right) finishes a close third behind Samraat and Uncle Sigh in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes last Saturday, his first start since September.


In Trouble, who was a close third in the Gotham Stakes last Saturday in his first start since September, is the lone newcomer to this week’s Derby Watch top 20. He is at 25-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Samraat, the Gotham winner, is now at 20-1 after being 30-1 a week ago, while Uncle Sigh, the Gotham runner-up, saw his price drop to 25-1 from 40-1. Watchmaker also lowered the price on Intense Holiday, the recent winner of the Risen Star Stakes. He is now at 20-1 after being 25-1 last week.


Double, double toil, and trouble. The odd horse out to make room for In Trouble ended up being Vicar’s in Trouble. Double trouble. Vicar’s in Trouble most recently was third in the Risen Star. He’s done nothing wrong since then. It was simply a matter of finding room for a horse the Derby Watch selection committee (total members, two) felt was more deserving at present. Watchmaker made slight adjustments on several horses, raising prices on Tapiture (12-1 from 10-1), General a Rod and Wildcat Red (both 20-1 from 15-1), Constitution and Midnight Hawk (both 25-1 from 20-1), and Albano (40-1 from 30-1).

[DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Sadler has best shot yet with Kristo, Candy Boy, Kobe's Back]


The Tampa Bay Derby on Saturday is worth 50 points to the winner under the system used by Churchill Downs to determine the field for the May 3 Derby should more than 20 runners enter, so if someone other than current Derby Watch member Conquest Titan wins, he certainly will muscle his way onto the list.