03/27/2013 5:09PM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 27



Black Onyx, who won the Spiral Stakes on Saturday, and Govenor Charlie, winner of the Sunland Derby on Sunday, both earned 50 points toward the May 4 Kentucky Derby, guaranteeing a berth in the 20-horse field and securing a spot in the top 20 of this week's Derby Watch. Govenor Charlie made the bigger impression with Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper, who made him 15-1 on his future line. Watchmaker has Black Onyx at 30-1.


To make room for the newcomers, two horses had to be dropped. It was a tough decision for the Derby Watch brain trust, as there were no obvious deletions from horses listed a week ago, but Overanalyze and Super Ninety Nine ended up getting the heave-ho for two reasons: Both had disappointing performances last time out, and both have a mere 10 points at present. They likely will need to run one-two in their final preps to have enough points to run in the Derby, so there is a way for them to get back on the list. But, for now, they didn't make the cut. Goldencents, now 40-1 from last week's 30-1, is hanging on tenuously to his spot.


Departing was made a late nominee to the Triple Crown last weekend, just in time for Saturday's Louisiana Derby, which is worth 100 points for first and 40 for second. If the winners of the Louisiana Derby or Florida Derby are not already on the list, they will be next week. In terms of the Derby Watch list, points obviously will become increasingly paramount as the Derby nears.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

John Nicoletti More than 1 year ago
Have to go with Oxbow and Lucas.
Maurice More than 1 year ago
war academy will go through and win the kentucky derby. don't waste your time speculating
D More than 1 year ago
Both Overanalyze and Normandy Invasion are total pigs and way over hyped. Wake me up when the next time a Remson winner much less horses that run in the Remson are even close to be true contenders for the KY Derby! They talk about the BC Juv being a race that doesn't produce Derby Winners ha, add the Remson to it. This is not the 1980-90's anymore where people actually run there horses. Bottom line its a totally new ballgame out there full of trainers that want to baby the TB and then wonder why they end up hurt when they do have to run 3 races in what 5 weeks in the Triple Crown. All I know is Lucas and Baffert have won more Derby's together every year then if you add up the trainers in the rest of the field and those guys for the most part run the hell out of there horses to maintain fitness. Yeah don't give me the whole "how many horses they break down" story either. Guess what to get lemonade you got to squeeze lemon's and these two guys do it better then anyone! The question you should be asking yourself is why does Pletcher have so many horses that never make it to age 4 when he is Mr. 4-6 weeks between races?? How come there are so many 5K horses that run 10-12 times a year and are still trying to pick up checks at age 6 and 7? These horses that are being bought at $300K + are being managed to win a couple graded races and off to the breeding shed and god forbid dont do anything to hurt those chances by actually making the horse work and stay fit by racing, cause he or she might get hurt and there goes my breeding rights!! You guys in racing today would hate how Skip Away was managed! That horse was a prime example of racing often and when your not racing your putting up bullets in the morning! Anyway bottom line the Remson is sad every year when it comes to the Derby Trail... Both horses have no shot in May to wear roses. Good luck to all.
Roger More than 1 year ago
Another reason Normandy Invasion should not be on the watch list over Overanalyze is because the only way Normandy Invasion can get into the Derby is ti WIN the Wood......over Verrazano! If you think that is going to happen, you might look for another occupation. A hundred times more likely Overanalyze will finish 1 or 2 in the Arkansas Derby and get in than Normandy beating Verrazano.
Steve More than 1 year ago
40 points gets you in the derby. Normandy only needs 2nd. I'd also be weary about being too confident in a young 3 year old shipping to run over a 3rd different track in 8 weeks. horses aren't machines
tyc More than 1 year ago
Hear the ghost
Roger More than 1 year ago
You dropped Overanalyze but left Normandy Invasion at #10? Didn't Overanalyze beat Normandy invasion? And didn't both horses run a clunker last out finishing about the same? You better check the connections on Overanalyze versus Normandy Invasion. A lot stronger for Overanlyze than NI. Also I think Overanalyze was a short horse in the Gotham from his long layoff so he had more of an excuse than the other one. All Overanalyze has to to do is come first or second in the Arkansas Derby and he is in the Kentucky Derby. I think he will do this easily and might run a huge one to boot. If he runs big, which I expect, it will suddenly put him as one of the favorites in Kentucky. Also note because of his long rests this year this is a fresh horse going into the Derby which is going to be a huge advantage to him. Everyone has seemed to dismiss him already and I feel that is a huge mistake because the connections of Repole/ Pletcher/ Velasquez are not going to go down so easily. Also I feel this is an incredible off track horse here and if the Derby were to come up wet he could not be beat.
Robert Gann More than 1 year ago
Johnny V won't be on this horse in the derby. He will ride Orb for Shug.
Kendall Daniels More than 1 year ago
Keith: Did you know that 5 of the last 10 Kentucky Derby winners lost their final prep before the Derby? Just food for thought. Further, the Louisiana Derby has only been 9 furlongs for the past 3 years. The prior 20 years it was earlier in the racing calendar and only 8.5 furlongs. Finally last year no horse that competed in the Louisiana Derby ran in the Kentucky Derby, but in 2011 the 2nd and 3rd place finishers in the Louisiana Derby finished 2 and 3 in the Kentucky Derby. The winner of the 2010 Louisiana Derby finished 9th in the Derby but the 3rd place finisher went on to win the Belmont and the following year won the Breeders' Cup Classic. I wouldn't dismiss the Louisiana Derby so easily...
keith More than 1 year ago
When was the last time a Louisiana derby horse won the the Ky derby, Who ever wins the Louisiana derby he will not be my KY derby pick! Theses points mean thing.
Geral John Pinault More than 1 year ago
Black Onyx won't hit the board in Kentucky! Here's my 5-horse superfecta box: Oxbow, Verrazano, Orb, Itsmyluckyday and Vyjack!!!
Tom Van More than 1 year ago
nothing like picking the most talked about horses, I will give you $50 if 3 of those 5 horses hit the board.
Greg Stevens More than 1 year ago
I really like black onyx at a good price!!!! I had him in the spiral so I certainly won't turn my back on him in Louisville.... Stay away from the chalk, it leaves a bad taste in your mouth
SteveY More than 1 year ago
Send me some of that medical marujana - no way in hell these horses even finish in the top 10 - may is a lonnnnnggggg way away
Lawrence Vaccarelli More than 1 year ago
Verrazano wont get a whiff in the derby...no way..no better than 6th an also ran
John Nicoletti More than 1 year ago
Hope they stay healthy. Oxbow, is my persoanl favorite. He will love the derby distance.
Greg Jensik More than 1 year ago
Looking forward to watching Departing. The competition will be there, but he has a strong finish that should help in the final stretch.
RockaFelter21 More than 1 year ago
strong finish at a 1 1/8?