03/23/2016 11:40AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 23

Coady Photography
Cupid's victory in the Rebel Stakes dropped his odds to win the Kentucky Derby from 30-1 to 12-1.


The Derby Watch top 20 remained intact from last week, but the odds on several runners changed, most notably Cupid, whose impressive victory in the Rebel Stakes caused Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, to lower his odds to 12-1 from last week’s 30-1, making him the co-fourth choice on Watchmaker’s line for the May 7 Kentucky Derby. Whitmore, the Rebel runner-up, also saw his price lowered to 20-1 from last week’s 30-1.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Derby Watch: With a murderers' row of mounts, Geroux's time has come


Suddenbreakingnews was nearly dropped, but a compromise was forged between the Derby Watch editorial board, and he stayed, though Watchmaker increased his odds to 30-1 from last week’s 20-1. In order to balance the line with the sharp move on Cupid, Watchmaker had to tweak a few other runners, so both Gun Runner and Mo Tom are up to 20-1 after being 15-1 last week and Shagaf is now 25-1 after being 20-1 one week ago.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays


Creator, third in the Rebel, would have made the list if Suddenbreakingnews had been dropped, so he’s closest of all. The United Arab Emirates Derby on Saturday offers 100 Derby qualifying points for first and 50 for second, so the top two finishers in that race could move onto the list if eligible to the Derby. Frank Conversation is there for trainer Doug O’Neill. Also looming is Swipe, who is getting very close to his first start of the year and may be given a chance to make the Derby off one prep.

– Jay Privman