03/23/2016 11:40AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 23

Coady Photography
Cupid's victory in the Rebel Stakes dropped his odds to win the Kentucky Derby from 30-1 to 12-1.


The Derby Watch top 20 remained intact from last week, but the odds on several runners changed, most notably Cupid, whose impressive victory in the Rebel Stakes caused Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, to lower his odds to 12-1 from last week’s 30-1, making him the co-fourth choice on Watchmaker’s line for the May 7 Kentucky Derby. Whitmore, the Rebel runner-up, also saw his price lowered to 20-1 from last week’s 30-1.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Derby Watch: With a murderers' row of mounts, Geroux's time has come


Suddenbreakingnews was nearly dropped, but a compromise was forged between the Derby Watch editorial board, and he stayed, though Watchmaker increased his odds to 30-1 from last week’s 20-1. In order to balance the line with the sharp move on Cupid, Watchmaker had to tweak a few other runners, so both Gun Runner and Mo Tom are up to 20-1 after being 15-1 last week and Shagaf is now 25-1 after being 20-1 one week ago.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays


Creator, third in the Rebel, would have made the list if Suddenbreakingnews had been dropped, so he’s closest of all. The United Arab Emirates Derby on Saturday offers 100 Derby qualifying points for first and 50 for second, so the top two finishers in that race could move onto the list if eligible to the Derby. Frank Conversation is there for trainer Doug O’Neill. Also looming is Swipe, who is getting very close to his first start of the year and may be given a chance to make the Derby off one prep.

– Jay Privman

d More than 1 year ago
Swipe has NO chance to win the Dery. He hasn't Raced since Halloween, October 31, 2015. He's been Laid off over 5 months and only has 4 posted works in 2016, starting in early Feb through March. He lost 4 straight times to Nyquist, so not sure why a horse that hadn't run one race as a 3-yo would Improve enough to turn the tables on that rival, who's Not even the top Derby contender right now. If he does run in the Derby, he'll do it with 1 prep race- meaning he'll have to beat 19 rivals going a distance that he's never run of 1 1/4 miles, and do it having 1 race on his form over a 7 month span.
Joey Dekarski More than 1 year ago
your crazy ,yeah the horse has been training since early Feb he s as good if not better the all the derby contnders and added distance only helps .I d rather a fresh horse then one who runs 3 hard races into the derby .I ll take the trainers word for Swipes fitness ,he s been patient and knows exactly what his horse is capable of,of course the prep will show everything.
Kathy Loppnow More than 1 year ago
I think Swipe will win it all! Got him last week in future bet of odds of more than 30:1. He has never been out if the money; and races every month since he started until coming in second in BCJ. I've been trying to get info on him, so please - if someone can answer1) why he has been off all this year??and 2) is his next start going to be the SA derby? Thank you!
Joey Dekarski More than 1 year ago
He had a small surgry to remove a bone spur in early Jan ,he s been training good and should be back on the path any time now ,can t believe how many people dismiss this horses chances ..Because there not wearing him down with preps lol,he only needs a top 3 finish and he s in and that shouldn t be a problem ..The horse has a ton of heart

Joey Dekarski More than 1 year ago
Let s gooo SWIPE ,I d be in my glory if this colt makes it the the big dance and would be a serious contender for win honors ...I can t wait till his next race,his work from the gate was great last Saturday and he could potentially be one fresh horse come derby day...
Mike Rutledge More than 1 year ago
I really like Swipe and have him in the future bet but win the KD off 1 prep not likely. I also have Nyquist to win & both boxed in the exacta so my only chance is Nyquist to win and maybe just maybe Swipe 2nd.
Alex Saudargas More than 1 year ago
john g More than 1 year ago
none of the above. Mor Spirit crushes the field and gives Baffert another Derby winner.Completing the super is Outwork ( Pletcher just can't get the big W ), Exaggerator ( Curlin colt improves big time for the big dance), and in a dead heat for 4'th is Danzing Candy and Romans colt Unbridled Outlaw. .. Mohaymen finishes 10'th after tiring badly and finishing 18'th is Nyquist after being eased and never a factor. lol
Nakia Towery More than 1 year ago
Jockey Cup at Churchill was a key prep only Problems was the slop. But all the contenders from That race is still around.Cupid will help Mor Spirit In the Derby with his problem at SA Danzig Candy. But im leaning toward MoTom Gun Runner or Forevamo. But for real Danzig Candy could be the Best of the bunch. He looked like he could cruise Another 3 sixteenths in the last. Likely SA Derby Winner i think. Battery also looks like a runner. N Destin keeps getting better. I dont want nobody From the BC Juv
Nakia Towery More than 1 year ago
His Jockey better get it together then