03/22/2017 10:50AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for March 22

Coady Photography
Malagacy (above) and Sonneteer, one-two in the Rebel Stakes, have joined the Derby Watch top 20.


Malagacy and Sonneteer, the top two finishers in the Rebel Stakes last Saturday at Oaklawn, are two of the three newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch top 20. Malagacy is 15-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, while Sonneteer – who is still a maiden but earned 20 Derby qualifying points in the Rebel – is a 50-1 shot. Also new to the list is recent Santa Anita maiden winner Bronze Age, who should be one of the top contenders Sunday in the Sunland Derby, a race worth 50 points to the winner. Bronze Age is 30-1 on Watchmaker’s line.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Derby Watch: Pletcher knows how to play the game


American Anthem, Petrov, and Royal Mo all were dropped from the top 20 after their performances in the Rebel. Petrov came closest to staying on the list, as he was barely beaten for second while finishing fourth in a three-horse photo. But his spot on the points list is precarious right now, and the Derby Watch list is increasingly points driven as Derby Day, May 6, nears. Classic Empire worked Wednesday and remains on the list, but Watchmaker increased his price to 12-1 from last week’s 8-1, meaning he is now the co-fifth choice after being the second choice last week.


There are three Derby preps this weekend – the Spiral and United Arab Emirates Derby on Saturday and the Sunland Derby – and each offers enough points to put its winner on the list if he’s not there already. No one in the Spiral is currently on the list, but that will change since the winner will receive 50 points, guaranteeing a spot in the field.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis