02/18/2015 1:05PM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 18

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WHO’S HOT
There was no change to the Derby Watch top 20 from a week ago in terms of the runners on the list or the Kentucky Derby future line produced by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, who last week made Dortmund the ante-post favorite at 6-1. American Pharoah sure looked good in his third breeze last weekend. Last year’s Eclipse Award winner is coming around fas

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | Kentucky Derby: Upstart put in good position

WHO’S NOT
Since there were no newcomers to the top 20, no one got bumped. One of the more precarious positions is held by Texas Red, who was favored at 8-1 on the initial Derby Watch list two weeks ago but last week was relegated to the third choice at 10-1 on Watchmaker’s line, owing to a foot abscess that is interrupting his intended schedule. The timing is terrible. He’ll only have a chance for one more prep even if everything goes as well as his connections hope.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

ON THE BUBBLE
There should be plenty of movement this weekend after the Fountain of Youth and Risen Star stakes Saturday and, weather permitting, the Southwest on Sunday. Gorgeous Bird, who will go for his third straight win in the Fountain of Youth, and Mr. Z, scheduled to run in the Southwest, are among those who could move onto the list after this weekend. Metaboss, the winner of last week’s El Camino Real Derby, missed making the cut this week but also could move up if a significant number of those currently on the list take backward steps this weekend.

Douglas More than 1 year ago
RISEN STAR ( KEEN ICE ) This race has all the looks of a TAKE RISK - FULL ADVANTAGE of this Longshot making a name for himself in the RISEN STAR : Should Be Close To 12-1 At Post Time : This could be an awesome WAGER ( WIN / PLACE ) And if all goes well for KEEN ICE like I think it will : Could have a lot of EXTRA CHASH FLOW for the DERBY in May : $200 WIN - $400 PLACE . . . This race here is KEEN for the ICE
Jarrod Goldberg More than 1 year ago
Still to early to count Texas Red out. Does anyone think TCB could run in the derby or does she stay in the oaks?
John Pisiona More than 1 year ago
At this point in time,I would think Kabir and Mr. Z have the credentials rather than the hype if that means any thing.
Lee Thorsgard More than 1 year ago
What's the ETA for Cozmic One and Jess's Dream?? Will they or won't they make the Derby points race? Cozmic One put in his 7th timed workout today, whereas Jess's Dream has not had a timed workout since 12/18/14.
Garnet Barnsdale More than 1 year ago
LOL - I have as much chance of running in the Derby as either of those two.
Chad mc rory More than 1 year ago
With Derby Points "in" for 2yos last year, how many of these would be "out" by now...
Bill More than 1 year ago
Exactly what I've been saying.
Scott Kromer More than 1 year ago
hoping keen ice can do something in the risen star, has that closing style that bodes well in kentucky
Frank Reach More than 1 year ago
My opinion is the Derby winner comes from either Florida or Santa Anita. The other horses in the Midwest or those bad ones that ran in the El Camino Real just aren't good enough this year.
m More than 1 year ago
That's pretty much the scenario every year....
jason javino More than 1 year ago
what are the other winners from california other the cal chrome?
robert bertz More than 1 year ago
I;ll Have another!
Ann More than 1 year ago
There was a year where the toughest race prep, according to comparative form, was the Louisiana Derby. Forget which one it was.
Andrew Connie More than 1 year ago
Remember this in may the derby winner comes out of Dubai