02/17/2016 1:04PM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for Feb. 17

Coady Photography
Suddenbreakingnews is 20-1 on the Derby Watch line after rallying to win the Southwest Stakes on Monday.

Suddenbreakingnews, who rallied from last to win the Southwest Stakes on Monday, is one of three newcomers to the Derby Watch top 20. He is 20-1 on the Kentucky Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. Also debuting on the list are Uncle Lino, the runner-up in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, who is 25-1 on Watchmaker’s line, and Swale Stakes runner-up Economic Model, who is 30-1. Eclipse Award winner Nyquist, who won the San Vicente on Monday to remain unbeaten in six starts, is now the second choice on Watchmaker’s line at 6-1 after being the co-third choice last week at 10-1. Exaggerator, second in the San Vicente, is now the co-fourth choice at 12-1 after being 15-1 a week ago.

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Collected, Drefong, and Gift Box were dropped from the list. Collected was fourth as the favorite in the Southwest, while Drefong and Gift Box have not worked in more than three weeks, though Gift Box is in training and could work again soon.

Destin, who won the Sam F. Davis Stakes last Saturday, and Frank Conversation, who won last Saturday’s El Camino Real Derby, just missed making the cut. So did Tom’s Ready, but he’ll get a chance Saturday to forge his way onto the list when he runs in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds, which kicks off a round of Derby preps that offer 85 points overall, 50 to the winner, essentially making them Win and You’re In races for the Kentucky Derby.

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays

T Flynn More than 1 year ago
Overlooking Swipe by birdstone given Nyquists record?I am still living off my Breeders Cup wager on him in the BC Juvenile at 25-1 was much better than stablemate Exaggerator.Defies logic.Is he hurt? had surgery?If not keep quiet.
mike More than 1 year ago
Blaine MacMillan More than 1 year ago
I actually like both the San Vicente and Southwest winner's. Nyquist is dangerous in that his BC Juvenile win shows that he's not necessarily a need-the-lead type, notwithstanding his natural speed. SBN wasn't only passing tired horses. He accelerated in the stretch. Should he take to CD strip and the early fractions are taxing, BEWARE!!!!!
Jerry Mann More than 1 year ago
Oaklawn cooked the track,as they often do...
David Benning More than 1 year ago
SBN is oozing with quality. His stretch run was as good as any I have seen from a 3yo in FEB, I completely disagree that it was somehow bias-aided. Whitmore seemed like the one who benefitted from the early pace, while SBN simply exploded down the lane like a real champion. I really love the way he did it. The connections have to think about whether the timing of the Rebel and the AD suit this colt. The AD is only 3 weeks, at most, from the Derby, so either he has to be ridden in that final prep like it's a workout (getting up for 3rd?) or they need to come up with a different plan. I will be curious to see how they do this...
Jim Eggers More than 1 year ago
In my mind, the nagging question is, can Nyquist get the 12 furlongs?
Kim Lee More than 1 year ago
The Kentucky Derby is 10f, Belmont 12f