Updated on 04/09/2014 4:02PM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 9

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Barbara D. Livingston
Bayern , a prime contender for Saturday's Arkansas Derby, has moved into the Derby Watch top 20.

WHO’S HOT

Wicked Strong, Bayern, and Bobby’s Kitten are the three newcomers to this week’s Derby Watch top 20. Wicked Strong solidified a spot in the May 3 Kentucky Derby by virtue of his victory last Saturday in the Wood Memorial, which was worth 100 points under the system used by Churchill Downs to determine the Derby field. He is 12-1 on the Derby future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper. The undefeated, highly regarded Bayern runs Saturday in the Arkansas Derby, and although he has zero points, a one-two finish puts him in the Derby, so he was added and is a 15-1 shot on Watchmaker’s line. Similarly, Bobby’s Kitten (20-1 on Watchmaker’s line) was added since a one-two finish in the Blue Grass Stakes on Saturday would put him into the Derby, a race coveted by his owners, Ken and Sarah Ramsey. California Chrome, already the favorite on Watchmaker’s line, was lowered to 4-1 from last week’s 6-1 following his runaway victory in the Santa Anita Derby.

DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list   

Bayern taking first step towards defying history

WHO’S NOT

Albano, Social Inclusion, and Toast of New York were removed from the list. Both Albano and Toast of New York have enough points to make the Derby, but their connections did not feel it was in the best interests of their colts to run. Social Inclusion was third in the Wood Memorial, and the 20 points he earned might leave him shy of making the Derby field. Candy Boy, third in the Santa Anita Derby, is up to 20-1 after being 10-1 a week ago. Watchmaker’s odds also doubled on Ring Weekend, who is now 50-1 following his distant second-place finish in the Calder Derby.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

ON THE BUBBLE

The Arkansas Derby and the Blue Grass Stakes each offer 100 points to the winner and 40 for second, so the one-two finishers in those races will move onto the list if they are not there already. Former top-20 members Commissioner and Strong Mandate can move back onto the list with good performances in the Arkansas Derby.

 

[DRF Live: Get live reports and handicapping insights from Keeneland this Saturday; check out last weekend’s coverage]

– Jay Privman