04/05/2017 11:56AM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 5

Barbara D. Livingston
Always Dreaming's victory in the Florida Derby lowered his odds to 8-1 on the Derby Watch top 20.


Always Dreaming, first touted in the original Derby Watch top 20 published Feb. 17, leaped all the way to the second choice on the Kentucky Derby future line of Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form’s national handicapper, following his runaway victory in the Florida Derby. He is 8-1, behind only McCraken, the 6-1 favorite. Girvin, the Louisiana Derby winner, saw his price fall to 15-1 from last week’s 20-1. Classic Empire is the co-third choice at 10-1 after being 12-1 a week ago. Also seeing his price fall was State of Honor, the Florida Derby runner-up, who is now 30-1 from last week’s 40-1.

:: DERBY WATCH: Top 20 list | DERBY WATCH: O'Neill, already in exclusive company, looks for more


El Areeb is injured and off the Derby trail, so he was removed from the list. Gunnevera, third as the favorite in the Florida Derby, saw his price jump to 12-1, making him the co-fifth choice on Watchmaker’s line after being the second choice a week ago at 8-1. In order to make his line balance – Watchmaker treats the top 20 as if it were the 20-horse Derby field – prices were slightly tweaked upward on One Liner (now 12-1), J Boys Echo (15-1), Iliad (20-1), and Cloud Computing (25-1).


Both Patch and Local Hero, second and third in the Louisiana Derby, have points that could put them in the Derby field if their connections decide to go there, but the Derby Watch committee prefers other runners who have fewer points – like Battalion Runner and Iliad – so they were omitted for now. But that could change after this weekend as the Derby grows closer and the top 20 becomes increasingly driven by the points list. – Jay Privman

:: ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays, and analysis

Bill Minjoe 25 days ago
Reach The World anyone?
Katherine Hanlon 25 days ago
wheres battalion runner  i bet him on a future and he was scratched last week. s omeone help me
Joe Whitehead 25 days ago
He is ranked #12 (25-1) in their Derby Watch list. 
CarloCampanella 25 days ago
Gunnevera was VERY underweight on Saturday and looked thin and tight in his backend. It had NOTHING to do with not trying- NO ONF runs in a $1 million race and doesn't try, eapecially finishing 3rd, so he still was used up but didn't get the cash? Always Dreaming is simply on the improve and a better horse
DavidM9999 25 days ago


Gunnevera is a nice horse but was poor win bet at 6-5. For $1M they were going IMO. Ideally a win and no gut job. Unfortunately, the horse is just at the mercy of pace and the quality in front of him. Neither were to his liking on April 1. Who knows in the upcoming 20 horse rodeo. Big pace, he gets a trip, passes the stoppers. It has happened before (see Giacomo). It was reported by on the ground experts that Gunnevera was not looking as sharp going into the Florida Derby as he was in the FOY. Let's see how comes out of this race...moving forward, backwards or neutral.

Richard Reynolds 25 days ago
It was said that he had lost wait in between starts and he obviously was run right in the ground before the Florida Derby. Will be interesting to see if he can rebound for the Kentucky Derby.
Molly Julia 25 days ago
Javier Castellano Didn't Try With Gunnevera In The 2017 FL Derby Will Save Him For The 2017 Kentucky Derby Instead?
Vincenzo Lentini 24 days ago
right he didnt try for a million dollar purse.....how dumb are you
Rusty Hale 25 days ago
Gotta feeling, bout tapwrit

David Juffet 24 days ago
Me too. 
David Juffet 24 days ago
Me too.