04/17/2013 5:00PM

Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 17

Tom Keyser
Titletown Five will shoot for the 20 Kentucky Derby qualifying points that go to the winner of the Derby Trial.


Charming Kitten, Falling Sky, Frac Daddy, and Tiz a Minister are the additions to this week's Derby Watch top 20 list, the bottom of which is increasingly influenced, at this stage, by where horses stand on the points list towards the May 4 Kentucky Derby. Charming Kitten and Frac Daddy are both 30-1 on the future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper. Falling Sky and Tiz a Minister are both 50-1. Java's War, the Blue Grass winner, and Overanalyze, the Arkansas Derby winner, are both down to 15-1 after being 25-1 a week ago. Blue Grass runner-up Palace Malice also saw his price fall sharply, from 40-1 to 20-1.


Owing to performance or confirmed defections from the Derby trail, four horses - Den's Legacy, Rydilluc, Uncaptured, and War Academy - were removed from the top 20. Den's Legacy is not yet officially out of the Derby, so he could work his way back onto the list next week if his connections surprisingly decide to press forward. He likely will have enough points to run, but what's the point? There is - news flash! - life after the Derby. Watchmaker raised the prices on a handful of horses: Vyjack went from 12-1 to 15-1, Oxbow from 20-1 to 30-1, and Black Onyx from 30-1 to 50-1.


The Lexington on Saturday at Keeneland is worth 20 points for first, so the winner could conceivably have enough points to get into the Derby, and thus would merit inclusion on next week's list. Cerro and Sunbean are among the leading candidates in that race. The Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, also Saturday, was conspicuously cut out of the Derby points list by Churchill Downs. The Derby Trial at Churchill, April 27, is also worth 20 points for first, and Titletown Five - co-owned by Louisville resident Paul Hornung - is heading there. Like Den's Legacy, both Code West and Super Ninety Nine are unlikely for the Derby, but both could have enough points to run. If their connections decide to run, and they are in the top 20 on the points list, they would go back on Derby Watch, but hopefully sanity prevails.

[ROAD TO THE KENTUCKY DERBY: Prep races, point standings, replays]

David Neihouse More than 1 year ago
I pray for the people who can say what horses are hot and who's are not..... I hope the owners of Den's Legacy and super ninetynine press forward into the derby and try to win this damn race.....super 99 is a pretty good mudder and no one knows what the weather will be like come may 4th at CD.So Jay, i really appreciate you giving the owners of those horses two chances, slim and none...so whats your pick super handicapper? they all have a shot..thats why they run the race...good luck to all racing fans come the first saturday in May................PEACE
FantasyCEOs More than 1 year ago
Whoever draws the 1 hole is a toss. I don't care where they are on this list.
David Neihouse More than 1 year ago
REALLY? So if Secretariat would have drawn the 1 post in 1973, would you have tossed him too? Just because the 1 post is 0 for 138 does not mean that it will never happen. Maybe we will luck out and Verrazano will draw into it. Then we will see just what kind of unbeaten monster he really is..........good luck!
Maynard More than 1 year ago
Historically, the one has won more than any other post position. If you have a speedy horse that can hold his position on the rail, it is the shortest way around.
Nina Fields More than 1 year ago
How do you justify Orb who ran two full seconds (about 12 lengths) slower than I Dream of Julia ran on the same track, just an hour earlier, and she isn't even the favorite for the Oaks????????????
David Neihouse More than 1 year ago
Dear Nina, Julia was not running against the boys..........LOL
Joe Trezza More than 1 year ago
easy.throw Orb out.
Joe Trezza More than 1 year ago
throw orb out
Joe Trezza More than 1 year ago
orb has no chance to win the derby
Maynard More than 1 year ago
Actually, the amazing strength of this Oaks Field exposes the shortcomings of the new CD point system as much as leaving the Illinois Derby out. There are a remarkable number who could leave these testosterone filled clunkers in the dust. The females not in season do not know or care what sex the others are. Look at Rachel Alexandra, Zenyatta and Black Caviar's records against males. In Nature, female horses try to outrun the males when they are not interested and often succeed.
Stewart W More than 1 year ago
I justify Orb by his trainer, and by having beat It'smyluckyday at his favorite track. Shug has run only one horse in the Derby in the past 23 years. In that time frame, Pletcher is 1 for 31 in the Derby. Orb is in it to win it.
Mooch J More than 1 year ago
Guess a lot already have their Derby picks, and it seems that Post position, track condition, pace, workouts or the fact that we don't even know at this point who all's even running is stopping some from picking the winner, some even have the Superfecta picked. At this time the only thing we can be sure of is the weight everyone is going to carry.
mike summers More than 1 year ago
lousy field again
chad More than 1 year ago
Revolutionary Normandy invasion ORB Goldencents Overnalyze are the top 5 in the derby just trying to figure out where to place who first second third fourth and fifth heard hear first everybody
Anonymous More than 1 year ago
Orb vs Verrazano, Please keep the rest out of the way and let the 2 best get their run in to make it a Derby and not a traffic jam.
Sam More than 1 year ago
Don't box them because one of them won't show up.
Joe Trezza More than 1 year ago
hey anonymous Orb has no chance !the filly dreaming of Julia ran at least 10 lengths faster same track same day same distance.
Harv Harvey More than 1 year ago
Java War might run back to his top Blue Grass stretch run
Kevin Savage More than 1 year ago
maybe not
Sam More than 1 year ago
When I calculated that TizAMinister ran the last 5/16ths of the San Felipe in 29 seconds, he became my Derby colt. But with that bomb in the S,A, Derby, what am I to do? Throw that race out? Why? It was on the same track under the same conditions, etc. only a stronger field that day.
michael stapler More than 1 year ago
They call ir "class'.
Sam More than 1 year ago
There wasn't any "class" in that field
Kevin Savage More than 1 year ago
time is for convicts
Sam More than 1 year ago
You're right as to time of race because that depends on who's setting the fractions, but when a colt runs a fast 5/16ths, that can't be discounted
edb More than 1 year ago
Hey H C, Have you watched those horses run? Why run them if they can't win. There is life and money after the derby. Baffert has class and knows what he is doing. When is Pletcher going to lose his next horse? Getting to be an annual event and always throws things up in the air. Now the back end of the derby is sneaking in to fill the field. Still like Goldencents leading at the top of the stretch with Oxbow ( throw out last race) and then here come the closers. GC beats up the "Bridge" and sets up ORB.
Kevin Savage More than 1 year ago
if baffert's not yapping, I'd worry...usualy has his horses ready for the derby, but you need breaks?
Joe Trezza More than 1 year ago
orb too slow .10 lengths slower than filly that ran same distance on under card of florida derby
Horse Cents More than 1 year ago
I'm confused Jay. Charming Kitten and Tiz A Minister make your top twenty? This can only happen if Baffert does not enter Super ninety nine, Dens Legacy, and Code West. Life after the Derby? Not for Baffert. There is no way he refuses to run all three of those unless there in injury to one or all three. If you know something we don't then run that story and keep us up to date. Otherwise how can you take a horse out that's in, and count on those three dropping to add the other ones to the list. My guess is S99 runs as the rabbit, Den drops, and someone else drops to get Code West in, and if he gets in he runs. Bob considered running him in the Lexington so why would he drop him out if he gets in. Again, very confused. Also, 20 points from the Lexington would possibly get in, but only if total money is more than 390,000. Don't think that's going to happen so the 20 points go up in smoke. Unless again, there is something you know but not reporting.
Jason Hart More than 1 year ago
What is so confusing? You said Code West was running in the Lexington too. Baffert already shipped his runners to Churchill. It's not impossible for him to change his mind and run others, but it is improbable. Besides, why enter a rabbit, when your main colt (Governer Charlie) already runs on the front end? Now if Baffert trained Java War, Vyjack, Tiz A Minister, Orb, etc, then I'm sure he'd enter a rabbit.
Sam More than 1 year ago
Orb doesn't need a "rabbit."
Horse Cents More than 1 year ago
The field is limited to 20. Code West is number 22. Do the math. Baffert cannot choose to run Code West in the Derby without help from defections. I didn't say Code West was running in the Lexington. Never said that. Baffert said he was considering running him in the Lexington, I repeated what he said. In fact I repeated it in this post. You chosen to misread it twice.
mdavis8357 More than 1 year ago
You guessed wrong about Code West. And he did not consider running him in the Lexington. You need better sources.
Horse Cents More than 1 year ago
My source as I said before Mary, was an article published here by DRF, published April 12, entitled "Code West eyes Coolmore Lexington stakes". "it's a possibility" said Baffert. I didn't guess at anything, I read it from that article, and quoted him. Funny how when people try to disparage someone for something they said, they don't even bother to check the source of said quote. Look it up, it's on this site.
Horse Cents More than 1 year ago
Your problem is not with me, it's either with Baffert or with DRF.
Horse Cents More than 1 year ago
In fact I've given reference to that article three times now and you and someone else continue to misquote me.
BS Responder More than 1 year ago
Much to early for me but, will bet a few bucks on Gary Steven just for old time sake. I read a article last year and he gave me the winner. As far as a serious bet...too early.