- DRF Bets
- Handicapping & PPsHorsemen's ProductsReports
Access past performances
- The Wizard
- DRF Gameplan
- Quick Sheets
- DRF Picks
- Today's Racing Digest
- Key Race Report
- Positive ROI Report
- Moss Pace Figure Reports
- Debut Reports
- WE Handicapping Report
- Clocker Reports
Racing and Wagering InformationTools
- DRF EasyForm PPs
- DRF Classic PDF PPs
- DRF Formulator PPs
- DRF HarnessEye PPs
- DRF Daily Harness Program PPs
- Daily Racing Program PPs
- NewsCategoriesTrack Notes
- StorePast PerformancesHarness PPsPackagesDRF PlusREPORTSPICKS
Kentucky Derby: Who's hot, who's not for April 17
By Jay Privman
Charming Kitten, Falling Sky, Frac Daddy, and Tiz a Minister are the additions to this week's Derby Watch top 20 list, the bottom of which is increasingly influenced, at this stage, by where horses stand on the points list towards the May 4 Kentucky Derby. Charming Kitten and Frac Daddy are both 30-1 on the future line set by Mike Watchmaker, Daily Racing Form's national handicapper. Falling Sky and Tiz a Minister are both 50-1. Java's War, the Blue Grass winner, and Overanalyze, the Arkansas Derby winner, are both down to 15-1 after being 25-1 a week ago. Blue Grass runner-up Palace Malice also saw his price fall sharply, from 40-1 to 20-1.
Owing to performance or confirmed defections from the Derby trail, four horses - Den's Legacy, Rydilluc, Uncaptured, and War Academy - were removed from the top 20. Den's Legacy is not yet officially out of the Derby, so he could work his way back onto the list next week if his connections surprisingly decide to press forward. He likely will have enough points to run, but what's the point? There is - news flash! - life after the Derby. Watchmaker raised the prices on a handful of horses: Vyjack went from 12-1 to 15-1, Oxbow from 20-1 to 30-1, and Black Onyx from 30-1 to 50-1.
ON THE BUBBLE
The Lexington on Saturday at Keeneland is worth 20 points for first, so the winner could conceivably have enough points to get into the Derby, and thus would merit inclusion on next week's list. Cerro and Sunbean are among the leading candidates in that race. The Illinois Derby at Hawthorne, also Saturday, was conspicuously cut out of the Derby points list by Churchill Downs. The Derby Trial at Churchill, April 27, is also worth 20 points for first, and Titletown Five - co-owned by Louisville resident Paul Hornung - is heading there. Like Den's Legacy, both Code West and Super Ninety Nine are unlikely for the Derby, but both could have enough points to run. If their connections decide to run, and they are in the top 20 on the points list, they would go back on Derby Watch, but hopefully sanity prevails.
I pray for the people who can say what horses are hot and who's are not..... I hope the owners of Den's Legacy and super ninetynine press forward into the derby and try to win this damn race.....super 99 is a pretty good mudder and no one knows what the weather will be like come may 4th at CD.So Jay, i really appreciate you giving the owners of those horses two chances, slim and none...so whats your pick super handicapper? they all have a shot..thats why they run the race...good luck to all racing fans come the first saturday in May................PEACE
Whoever draws the 1 hole is a toss. I don't care where they are on this list.
How do you justify Orb who ran two full seconds (about 12 lengths) slower than I Dream of Julia ran on the same track, just an hour earlier, and she isn't even the favorite for the Oaks????????????
Guess a lot already have their Derby picks, and it seems that Post position, track condition, pace, workouts or the fact that we don't even know at this point who all's even running is stopping some from picking the winner, some even have the Superfecta picked. At this time the only thing we can be sure of is the weight everyone is going to carry.
Revolutionary Normandy invasion ORB Goldencents Overnalyze are the top 5 in the derby just trying to figure out where to place who first second third fourth and fifth heard hear first everybody
Orb vs Verrazano, Please keep the rest out of the way and let the 2 best get their run in to make it a Derby and not a traffic jam.
Java War might run back to his top Blue Grass stretch run
When I calculated that TizAMinister ran the last 5/16ths of the San Felipe in 29 seconds, he became my Derby colt. But with that bomb in the S,A, Derby, what am I to do? Throw that race out? Why? It was on the same track under the same conditions, etc. only a stronger field that day.
Hey H C, Have you watched those horses run? Why run them if they can't win. There is life and money after the derby. Baffert has class and knows what he is doing. When is Pletcher going to lose his next horse? Getting to be an annual event and always throws things up in the air. Now the back end of the derby is sneaking in to fill the field. Still like Goldencents leading at the top of the stretch with Oxbow ( throw out last race) and then here come the closers. GC beats up the "Bridge" and sets up ORB.
I'm confused Jay. Charming Kitten and Tiz A Minister make your top twenty? This can only happen if Baffert does not enter Super ninety nine, Dens Legacy, and Code West. Life after the Derby? Not for Baffert. There is no way he refuses to run all three of those unless there in injury to one or all three. If you know something we don't then run that story and keep us up to date. Otherwise how can you take a horse out that's in, and count on those three dropping to add the other ones to the list. My guess is S99 runs as the rabbit, Den drops, and someone else drops to get Code West in, and if he gets in he runs. Bob considered running him in the Lexington so why would he drop him out if he gets in. Again, very confused. Also, 20 points from the Lexington would possibly get in, but only if total money is more than 390,000. Don't think that's going to happen so the 20 points go up in smoke. Unless again, there is something you know but not reporting.
- 1.Posted 12/10/2013 02:23PM
- 2.Posted 12/09/2013 01:54PM
- 3.Posted 12/10/2013 02:25PM
- 4.Posted 12/10/2013 01:46PM
- 5.Posted 12/10/2013 01:42PM